How far will Kevin Durant (left) take Phoenix in the 2023 playoffs?
Kevin Durant changes everything. When he arrived in Phoenix at midseason following a forced trade from the Nets, the Suns’ playbook and scouting report suddenly became outdated. Durant is such a game-changer — as a scorer, impact player, clutch player — that he can disrupt the dynamics of any team he joins, in a good way of course.
This comes as a disappointment to the Clippers, still trying to cash in four years after getting Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, and raising the hopes and chances of a title for the other team In LA. Injuries managed to place a speed bump in that road, and oh look, George enters this series with a limp, still smarting from a knee injury that may reduce his effectiveness. That’s a tough pill to swallow for the Clippers, who did a solid job in surrounding those two stars with help and depth. That said, the Clippers are built around Kawhi and PG, so any absence by one of them is costly.
Durant, Devin Booker, Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton are a fearsome foursome, especially if Paul defies age here in the postseason. They’ll get tested right away by the Clippers, and especially vice versa.
Regular-season results
Oct. 23: Suns 112, Clippers 95
Dec. 15: Suns 111, Clippers 95
Feb. 16: Clippers 116, Suns 107
April 9: Clippers 119, Suns 114
3 things to watch
1. Kawhi Leonard vs. Kevin Durant. The Clippers really lack anyone with the size to effectively eyeball KD on defense, but they do have the quality in Kawhi. Which means we’ll see this mano a mano for scattered minutes throughout each game. The Clippers would be foolish to assign Kawhi on KD for generous minutes and risk Kawhi getting into foul trouble; given Paul George’s questionable health, that would be detrimental to LA. Kawhi is an elite defender, or at least had that reputation before the injuries, and KD, who has averaged 26 points on 57% shooting with the Suns, is an elite scorer. This is easily the must-see matchup of the series.
2. Chris Paul’s impact. He’s coming off a season where almost everything about his game plummeted, at least compared to his career averages and reputation. This is understandable given Paul is 37; still, his production will be critical to the Suns’ chances. Here’s what’s in his favor: LA lacks an All-Star point guard to match against him. While Russell Westbrook has shown signs of life since arriving, he’s still too unpredictable and prone to turnovers and shots he either misses or passes up. If CP is the best point guard on the floor this series, that might not be saying much, but it’ll go a long way to helping the Suns offensively, since he’s still the best ball distributor on the club.
Paul George's availability looms large over first-round seres
3. Paul George. Well, of course, this is the key to the series. George injured his knee on March 21, hasn’t broken a sweat since, and the Clippers are not expecting him to return for the start of the series, at least. Obviously his worth to LA, and this series, is massive. George remains one of the league’s better two-way players and his defense especially will aid the Clippers against Booker, who brings the skills to drop 40 points or even more on any given night. But if George isn’t 100%, how can he expect to keep up with one of the game’s great all-around shooters off the bounce? In addition, the Clippers could use his 24 points per game and creativity, along with his tag-team ability with Kawhi. In this situation PG better not stand for Probably Gone.
X-Factor
With Paul George missing the start of the series, Norman Powell will be even more important to the Clippers’ chances.
Norman Powell, Clippers. Outside of PG and Kawhi, was the most consistent and dependable player on the Clippers roster this season. He emerged as one of the game’s best sixth men with solid play, averaging 17 points in 26 minutes and serving as a security blanket whenever Kawhi or PG couldn’t suit up. Well, well, well: PG is dealing with health issues and the Clippers will need a surplus of minutes and production from their trusty swingman, who has come through in such emergency situations. Powell brings decent shooting range (40%) and also a strong body to match up defensively. Of all the Clippers not named Kawhi and PG, he’s the one who gives coach Ty Lue the fewest reasons for worry.
Number to know
67.7% — Kevin Durant averaged 29.1 points per game on a true shooting percentage of 67.7% this season. The latter is the highest true shooting percentage in NBA history for any player who’s averaged at least 25 points in 25 games or more (439 total instances). In short, 2022-23 Kevin Durant was the most efficient high-volume scorer that we’ve ever seen. He shot 67.9% in the paint, an incredible 56.0% from mid-range, 40.4% from 3-point range and 91.9% from the free throw line.
True shooting percentage = PTS / (2 * (FGA + (0.44 * FTA)))
Kawhi Leonard didn’t score as much and wasn’t as efficient as Durant, but he did average 27.1 points on a true shooting percentage of 66.1% after the All-Star break. And the last time he was in the playoffs (2021), Leonard averaged 30.4 points on a true shooting percentage of 67.9%, the highest mark in NBA history for a player who averaged at least 30 points in eight or more playoff games (63 total instances).
So we have a matchup of two ridiculously efficient, high-volume scorers, and a key for both teams may be keeping Durant and Leonard from taking a high volume of shots.
— John Schuhmann
The Pick
It’s really tricky trying to handicap this series without knowing the full extent of Paul George’s health, although, he’s likely out to begin the first round. For now, let us assume he will play when the series shifts to LA for Games 3 and 4, but he will also be hampered. Doesn’t that sound reasonable? Well, that might not be enough for the Clippers, who’ll need a pair of ace defenders to deal with KD and Booker. Those two might average 60 a game. And KD, especially, is eager to distance himself from the Brooklyn Nets experience and also the injuries that cost him following his last championship, with the Warriors. One of these years, the Clippers will enter the playoffs with a clean bill of health and bring a decent chance of at least reaching the NBA Finals. This doesn’t appear to be that year — unless PG’s body fools us all and can stand the grind. Suns in 6.
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Shaun Powell has covered the NBA for more than 25 years. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Twitter.
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