2021 Playoffs: West First Round | Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers

Numbers preview: Nuggets (3) vs. Blazers (6)

Breaking down in-depth stats that could shape the series between Denver and Portland.

Nikola Jokic has led the way for the Nuggets from several areas on the floor.

The Denver Nuggets will begin the playoffs with a depleted backcourt. Jamal Murray (ACL tear) is done for the season, while Will Barton (hamstring strain) and P.J. Dozier (adductor soreness) are expected to miss at least the first game of their first round series against the Portland Trail Blazers. But, behind the Kia MVP campaign of Nikola Jokic, the Nuggets haven’t really broken stride. And for the third straight year, they have a top-3 seed in the Western Conference.

The Portland Trail Blazers have had an up-and-down-and-up-again season. They have big advantages in the backcourt and size to deal with Jokic. But the emergence of Michael Porter Jr. could make a difference for Denver.

Here are some statistical notes to get you ready for 3-6 series in the West, with links to let you dive in and explore more. Game 1 is Saturday at 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.


Pace = Possessions per 48 minutes
OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions


Denver Nuggets (47-25)

Pace: 97.7 (27)
OffRtg: 116.3 (6)
DefRtg: 111.5 (11)
NetRtg: +4.8 (6)

Regular season: Team stats | Advanced splits | Player stats | Player shooting | Lineups

vs. Portland: Team stats | Advanced splits | Player stats | Player shooting | Lineups

Nuggets notes – General:

  1. Started the season 17-15 and were tied with Phoenix for the league’s best record (30-10) after that.
  2. Outscored their opponents by 14.2 points per 100 possessions in the first quarter, the best mark for any team in any quarter.
  3. Only team that’s ranked in the bottom five in pace in each of the last three seasons.

Nuggets 2020-21 shot profile

 Area FGM FGA FG% Rank %FGA Rank
Restricted area 1,226 1,817 67.5% 5 28% 22
Other paint 562 1,219 46.1% 4 19% 10
Mid-range 399 924 43.2% 9 14% 11
Corner 3 241 563 42.8% 4 9% 19
Above-break 3 686 1,883 36.4% 11 29% 16

%FGA = Percentage of total field goal attempts

Nuggets notes – Offense:

  1. Got just 12.6 points per game, fewest in the league, from pick-and-roll ball-handlers. Jamal Murray accounted for 300 (33%) of their 910 total pick-and-roll ball-handler points.
  2. Ranked second with 4.1 secondary assists per game.
  3. Had the league’s smallest differential between their winning percentage when they shot the league average or better from 3-point range (26-13, 0.667) and their winning percentage when they shot worse than the league average (21-12, 0.636).
  4. Scored 1.18 points per possession, the league’s second best mark, against zone, according to Synergy tracking.
  5. 125.5 points scored per 100 possessions in the first quarter was the best mark for any team in any quarter.

Nuggets four factors

 Own/Opp. eFG% Rank FTA Rate Rank TO% Rank OREB% Rank
Own 55.7% 6 0.219 28 13.6% 15 29.2% 2
Opponent 54.5% 21 0.258 23 14.3% 12 24.9% 6

eFG% = (FGM + (0.5 * 3PM)) / FGA
FTA Rate = FTA/FGA
TO% = Turnovers per 100 possessions
OREB% = Percentage of available offensive rebounds obtained

Nuggets notes – Defense:

  1. Were a better-than-average defensive team for just the second time in the last eight seasons.
  2. Allowed a league-high 1.22 points per possession in transition.
  3. 41.8% of their opponents’ shots, the league’s fifth highest rate, came from 3-point range. Allowed 4.0 corner 3s per game, fourth most.
  4. Allowed a league-low 11.3 second-chance points per game. Saw the league’s third biggest jump in defensive rebounding percentage, from 72.5% (20th) last season to 75.1% (sixth) this season.

Nuggets notes – Lineups:

  1. Most-used lineup that doesn’t include Murray, Barton or Dozier – Campazzo, Rivers, Gordon, Porter and Jokic – played 71 total minutes.
  2. Outscored opponents by 10.8 points per 100 possessions in 558 total minutes with Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr. and Nikola Jokic on the floor together.
  3. The Nuggets scored 16.8 more points per 100 possessions with Jokic on the floor (120.2) than they did with him off the floor (103.4). That was the biggest on-off differential for offensive efficiency among 233 players who played at least 1,000 minutes for a single team.
  4. The Nuggets also scored 120.2 points per 100 possessions with Porter on the floor. That was tied with Jokic for the third highest on-court mark among 345 players who averaged at least 10 minutes per game.
  5. The Nuggets averaged just 96.8 possessions per 48 minutes with Millsap on the floor. That was the second lowest on-court mark among those 345 players.
  6. Got just 28% of their scoring, the league’s third lowest rate, from reserves.

Nuggets notes – Individuals:

  1. Facundo Campazzo averaged 4.4 deflections per 36 minutes, fourth most among 251 players who played at least 1,000 minutes.
  2. Will Barton shot 42-for-83 (51%) from 3-point range in the first quarter, the sixth best mark among 155 players with at least 50 first-quarter 3-point attempts. He shot 37-for-133 (27.8%) from 3-point range in quarters 2 and 3, and 17-for-37 (46%) in the fourth.
  3. Over his 25 games with the Nuggets, Aaron Gordon shot 79-for-121 (65%) in the paint (including 70% in the restricted area and 24-for-85 (28%) from outside the paint (including just 14-for-47 on catch-and-shoot 3s).
  4. Nikola Jokic led the league with 60 double-doubles and was the only player who ranked in the top 15 in points (12th), rebounds (ninth) and assists (sixth) per game.
  5. Jokic led the league in touches (101.0), frontcourt touches (58.0), and elbow touches (8.8) per game.
  6. Jokic attempted 429 non-restricted-area shots in the paint, 56 more than any other player. The 56.9% he shot on those was the third best mark among 121 players who attempted at least 100. He was also one of eight players to shoot better than 70% on at least 300 restricted-area attempts and one of three players to shoot better than 50% on at least 200 mid-range attempts.
  7. Jokic allowed just 0.63 points per possession on isolations, the second best mark among 87 players who defended at least 50, according to Synergy tracking.
  8. Opponents shot 47.7% at the rim when JaVale McGee was there to protect. That was the second best rim-protection mark among 247 players who defended at least 100 total shots at the rim.
  9. Paul Millsap saw the biggest drop in 3-point percentage (from 43.5% to 34.3%) among 202 players with at least 100 3-point attempts in each of the last two seasons.
  10. Monte Morris did not qualify for the assist/turnover ratio leaders, but if he did, his ratio of 4.41 would have had him second for the third straight season.
  11. Morris shot 71.3% in the restricted area, the third best mark among 105 guards (behind teammate Jamal Murray) with at least 100 restricted-area attempts.
  12. Michael Porter Jr. scored 1.37 points per possession in transition, the second best mark among 29 players with at least 200 transition possessions, according to Synergy tracking.
  13. Porter shot 77.5% in the restricted area, the third best mark among 97 players with at least 200 restricted-area attempts.
  14. Porter shot 46.5% on catch-and-shoot 3s, the fourth best mark among 86 players who attempted at least 200.

Portland Trail Blazers (42-30)

The Blazers return to the playoffs for an NBA-high eighth straight season.

Pace: 99.0 (19)
OffRtg: 117.1 (2)
DefRtg: 115.3 (29)
NetRtg: +1.8 (12)

Regular season: Team stats | Advanced splits | Player stats | Player shooting | Lineups

vs. Denver: Team stats | Advanced splits | Player stats | Player shooting | Lineups

Blazers notes – General:

  1. Have reached the playoffs in each of the last eight seasons, the league’s longest active streak.
  2. Combined with their opponents to score 116.1 points per 100 possessions, by far the league’s highest combined mark for a team and its opponents.
  3. Were outscored by 8.0 points in the paint per game, the league’s biggest discrepancy. Also had the four biggest discrepancy in fast break points per game (-2.1).
  4. Led the league with seven wins (they were 7-18) after trailing by 15 points or more.

Blazers 2020-21 shot profile

 Area FGM FGA FG% Rank %FGA Rank
Restricted area 1,126 1,851 60.8% 26 28% 23
Other paint 290 785 36.9% 29 12% 30
Mid-range 426 987 43.2% 10 15% 8
Corner 3 200 509 39.3% 15 8% 28
Above-break 3 931 2,416 38.5% 5 37% 1

%FGA = Percentage of total field goal attempts

Blazers notes – Offense:

  1. Took 44.8% of their shots, the league’s third highest rate, from 3-point range. Had the league’s second biggest differential between their winning percentage when they shot the league average or better from 3-point range (33-10, 0.767) and their winning percentage when they shot worse than the league average (9-20, 0.310).
  2. Only 53% of their 3-point attempts, the league’s lowest rate by a wide margin, were catch-and-shoot attempts. And only 79% of their 3-point attempts, the league’s lowest rate, were open or wide open.
  3. Ranked last in assist percentage for the second straight season, recording assists on only 51.5% of their field goals. Led the league in both average seconds per touch (3.50) and average dribbles per touch (2.63). Led the league in both isolation possessions per game (11.3) and points per possession on isos (1.06). Their 34.5 pull-up jumpers per game were 6.9 more than any other team attempted.
  4. Ranked last with just 30.7 drives per game, 3.5 fewer than any other team. Passed on just 30.1% of their drives, the league’s lowest rate.
  5. Led the league in clutch offense, scoring 126.7 points per 100 possessions with the score within five points in the last five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime. Committed just 7.3 turnovers per 100 clutch possessions, the league’s lowest rate.

Blazers four factors

 Own/Opp. eFG% Rank FTA Rate Rank TO% Rank OREB% Rank
Own 54.0% 15 0.238 22 11.2% 1 27.3% 10
Opponent 54.6% 22 0.258 21 12.5% 27 26.9% 20

eFG% = (FGM + (0.5 * 3PM)) / FGA
FTA Rate = FTA/FGA
TO% = Turnovers per 100 possessions
OREB% = Percentage of available offensive rebounds obtained

Blazers notes – Defense:

  1. Only team that has ranked in the bottom five defensively in each of the last two seasons.
  2. Were one of two teams – the Timberwolves were the other – that ranked in the bottom 10 in three of the four factors on defense, ranking 20th in the fourth.
  3. Allowed 15.5 second chance points per game, most in the league.
  4. Ranked third in clutch defense, allowing just 99.3 points per 100 possessions with the score within five points in the last five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime. Opponents shot just 21-for-85 (24.7%) on clutch 3s.

Blazers notes – Lineups:

  1. Starting lineup – Lillard, McCollum, Powell, Covington and Nurkic – outscored opponents by 13.4 points per 100 possessions, the seventh best mark among 30 lineups that played at least 200 minutes together. It committed just 10.8 turnovers per 100 possessions, fewest among those 30 lineups. Two other Portland lineups (both including Lillard and Covington) were also in the top six in regard to fewest turnovers per 100 possessions.
  2. Outscored their opponents by 9.3 points per 100 possessions in 1,068 total minutes with Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum on the floor together. Were outscored by 0.3 per 100 in 1,862 total minutes with one on the floor without the other.
  3. Allowed 8.4 fewer points per 100 possessions with Jusuf Nurkic on the floor (108.2) than they did with him off the floor (116.6). That was the eighth biggest on-off differential for points allowed per 100 possessions among players who played at least 750 minutes for a single team.
  4. Got only 5% of their minutes, the league’s second lowest rate, from rookies or second-year players.

Blazers notes – Individuals:

  1. Carmelo Anthony took 41.8% of his shots from 3-point range, up from 28.9% last season. That was the third biggest jump among 110 players with at least 500 field goal attempts in each of the last two seasons. CJ McCollum saw the 10th biggest jump (from 37.8% to 47.5%).
  2. Anthony still took 42% of his shots from mid-range, the second highest rate among 250 players with at least 300 field goal attempts. The 44.0% he shot from mid-range ranked 37th among 78 players with at least 100 mid-range attempts.
  3. Anthony passed on 16% of his post-ups, the lowest rate among 56 players with at least 100 post-ups, according to Second Spectrum tracking.
  4. Robert Covington ranked second in the league with 3.6 deflections per game.
  5. Covington shot 42.2% from 3-point range after the All-Star break, up from 33.3% before the break. That was the second biggest post-break jump among 162 players with at least 75 3-point attempts both before and after the break.
  6. Enes Kanter and Jusuf Nurkic ranked fourth and 10th in total rebounding percentage, grabbing 21.3% and 18.6% of available rebounds while they was on the floor, respectively. Kanter ranked second in offensive rebounding percentage (14.8%) and ninth in defensive rebounding percentage (28.1%), just behind Nurkic (28.3%).
  7. Damian Lillard led the league with 162 points scored in the clutch (score within five points in the last five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime). His 45-for-88 (51.1%) on clutch shots was the third best mark among 33 players who attempted at least 50.
  8. Lillard scored 1.07 points per possession as a pick-and-roll ball-handler, the third best mark among 43 players with at least 300 ball-handler possessions. He led the league with 8.1 pull-up 3-point attempts per game and the 37.1% he shot on pull-up 3s ranked 21st among 61 players who attempted at least 100.
  9. Lillard led the league with 246 assists on 3-pointers (3.7 per game).
  10. Lillard ranked second in free throw percentage at 92.8%, the highest mark in NBA history for any player with at least 400 free throw attempts. He shot 54-for-57 (94.7%) on clutch free throws, the third best mark among 26 players who attempted at least 25.
  11. C.J. McCollum saw a big jump in his pull-up 3-point percentage (from 30.8% to 36.7%), but a drop in his pull-up 2-point percentage (from 50.1% to 47.7%) from last season to this season. The latter mark still ranked 17th among 100 players who attempted at least 100 pull-up 2s.
  12. Nurkic averaged 3.8 roll-man possessions per game, seventh most in the league. His 1.13 points per possession as a roll man ranked 24th among 37 players with at least 100 roll-man possessions. Kanter’s 1.20 ranked 13th.
  13. Norman Powell scored 0.477 points per touch, second most among 325 players with at least 1,000 touches.
  14. Powell ranked fifth with 73 corner 3s. He was the only player to shoot 50% or better on at least 50 attempts from each corner.
  15. Powell shot 47.3% from 3-point range in the first half of games and just 32.4% in the second half. That was the biggest half-to-half drop among 137 players with at least 100 3-point attempts in each half.
  16. Anfernee Simons took 70.3% of his shots from 3-point range, up from 42.2% last season. That was the biggest jump among 250 players with at least 200 field goal attempts in each of the last two seasons. His jump in effective field goal percentage (from 46.9% to 56.9%) was the seventh biggest among those same 250 players.

Regular season matchup

Nuggets vs. Blazers Playoff Matchup

NBA TV previews the Nuggets-Blazers first round series.

Nuggets won season series, 2-1

Pace: 93.7 possessions (per team) per 48 minutes
Denver OffRtg: 118.5 (7th vs. Portland)
Portland OffRtg: 122.1 (4th vs. Denver)

Total points scored, season series

Area DEN POR Diff.
Restricted area 106 108 -2
Other paint 20 10 10
Total in paint 126 118 8
Mid-range 38 48 -10
3-point range 123 132 -9
Total outside paint 161 180 -19
Free throws 46 45 1
Fast break points 36 28 8
2nd chance points 39 45 -6

Matchup notes:

  1. The first meeting took place before the Nuggets acquired Aaron Gordon and the Blazers acquired Norman Powell. Only three Nuggets – Facundo Campazzo, Nikola Jokic and Michael Porter Jr. – played in all three games, and none of them played in the second half of the May 16 meeting. CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic each missed the first meeting for Portland.
  2. The Blazers had the league’s sixth best record (32-5, 0.865) when tied or leading after the third quarter. Two of those five losses came to the Nuggets. The score was tied after three on Feb. 23 and Portland led by two after three on Apr. 21. Both games were still within five in the last five minutes and the Nuggets scored 20 points on 16 clutch possessions, while the Blazers scored just eight points on 14 clutch possessions.
  3. The May 16 game was the Blazers’ second most efficient game of the season (132 points on 97 possessions) and the second most efficient game any team had against the Nuggets.
  4. The Nuggets’ one turnover on Feb. 23 was the fewest for any team in a game since turnovers started being tracked in 1977.
  5. Jokic’s 41 points on Feb. 23 were the fifth most for a player against the Blazers this season. His 4.0 assists per game were his second lowest average against any opponent this season. Over the three games, Nurkic and Enes Kanter defended him about the same amount of time.
  6. Damian Lillard’s 2.7 free throw attempts per game were his second lowest average against any opponent. Campazzo was his primary defender and Lillard shot just 4-for-15 (with only two free throw attempts) against that matchup.

* * *

John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Twitter.

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