What adjustments do the Heat and Nuggets need to make headed into Game 4?
MIAMI — The personality and flavor of the 2023 NBA Finals is finally starting to crystalize and solidify, three games in. Here are the developments that might stay permanent.
Nikola Jokic is assembling a string of historic performances.
Jamal Murray had his one poor outing and is over that.
Miami is living and dying by the 3-pointer.
The Nuggets are the more talented team — although to be fair, Miami has heard that line before.
Those are the talking points, the dominant snapshots of a championship series where the Nuggets are up 2-1 and threatening to seize total control unless the Heat find a way to introduce a fresh new angle. There’s still room for improvement by the lower-seeded team. Miami isn’t facing elimination and therefore isn’t running out of time; there’s no need to rush but the Heat better hurry up.
Overall, this series has been entertaining in various moments, surprising in other stretches and overwhelming by the greatness of Jokic. He is clearly the heavy Finals MVP favorite in this series unless and until someone shows him up. And if that happens, that player better be wearing a Heat uniform, or else this is a wrap.
Here are four things to monitor on Friday for Game 4 (8:30 ET, ABC). Will this be the final home game of the season for the Heat? Are the Nuggets due for a stumble? Can anyone stop Jokic?
1. Jokic’s pursuit of the greats
Even in the modern NBA, a physically dominant center like Nikola Jokic can still rule the paint and control a series.
Not only is Jokic chasing a championship, he’s also chasing legends in the process. Seriously, if he continues this way for however many more games this series lasts, he’ll align himself among the best individual postseasons ever.
High on that list, among others, are Moses Malone in 1983, Michael Jordan in ’91, Hakeem Olajuwon in ’94, Dirk Nowitzki in ’11, LeBron James in ’16, Giannis Antetokounmpo in ’22 and Stephen Curry in ’23. It’s shaping up to be that dominant.
Malone was the difference-maker for the Sixers, who cratered constantly in the playoffs before he arrived in free agency, and famously authored “fo, fo, fo.” Jordan was superb for all six of the Bulls’ titles but the first one was the most impressive. Olajuwon carried the Rockets to that first of back-to-back titles for Clutch City, before they added Clyde Drexler. Dirk took a team of role players and beat the Big Three Heat. Five years later, LeBron scrubbed himself of that experience by rallying the Cavs from 3-1 down to the Warriors. Giannis dropped a 50-piece in the elimination game against Phoenix and Steph dropped 3s from all over on his way to the Finals, and saved some for the Celtics.
Jokic has 11 triple-doubles (out of 18 games) in the postseason, including two in three games in the Finals. He’s averaging 33-14-9 on 59% shooting against Miami. It’s a special performance.
Nuggets coach Michael Malone says this is made possible by Jokic’s high IQ: “He sees things before they happen. He’s one step ahead of most people. No matter what is thrown at him, he has an answer. He takes what the game brings. That’s what makes him special. It’s really a luxury to have a player who not only is as talented as he is, but unselfish and with the IQ he has.”
Therefore: A multi-skilled center who finished 1-1-2 in the last three Kia MVP votes is finally flexing on the big stage and confirming what everyone knew or at least suspected about him: He’s real.
“A hell of a player,” Butler said. “Very, very dominant on the floor.”
2. Christian looks to score Braun-ie points
Rookie Christian Braun emerges as a surprising star in Game 3 with 15 points off the bench.
Nuggets coach Michael Malone sticks with a simple formula: Reward the players who deliver the goods. He’s showing plenty of faith in a small rookie point guard.
Did the Nuggets discover something in Game 3, when Braun shook up the series with unexpected energy and gutsy playmaking? Denver hopes so. At the very least, Braun will hear his number called early in Game 4 and will have the chance to prove his 18-point performance was no fluke.
“He has had two games where he has been able to make an impact,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said.
Actually, it’s an easy call elevating Braun over Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, the starter whose play has been spotty at best. KCP is the superior defender, however. As long as Braun isn’t getting exploited by the Heat in that regard — Butler has the green light to go hard whenever Braun is switched on him — Braun will see extended time in this series, more than anyone anticipated.
3. Miami’s love-hate with the 3
Miami’s efficiency from the perimeter will play a huge factor in the outcome of this series.
There’s really no secret here — the Heat’s chances of winning are elevated if they’re making their deep shots. If not, then it becomes a bit of a struggle and they lean heavier on Butler and Bam Adebayo to carry a significant portion of the offense.
On that last note, both players are certainly capable of doing that. Miami has won games in the past where those 3s didn’t fall. Problem is, this is the Finals, and the Nuggets are certainly no slouches, and Miami’s margin for error — or misses — is much slimmer.
The usual suspects — Gabe Vincent, Duncan Robinson and Max Strus — have been hit-or-miss this series. When the ball moves and the Nuggets are caught napping, the Heat are cashing in with those open looks from deep. But the Nuggets so far have only been lax for one night, and that was Game 2, when despite the Heat making 17 from deep, Denver still had a chance to send the game into overtime.
“Good offense is a function of just being connected as a group,” Robinson said. “We’ve had stretches where we’ve been really, really good, and we expect to get back to that. It’s about continuing to be aggressive and hunt for shots, and when they present themselves, take advantage of them.”
Two other factors are in play: Caleb Martin hasn’t been as impactful as he was in the Eastern Conference Finals, and there’s still no sign of Tyler Herro suiting up (he’s out for Game 4). And that’s not to mention Victor Oladipo, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in the first round. How much of a difference would this series be if Miami was working with a best-case scenario and reaching its ceiling?
4. Will the help keep helping?
To piggyback off the Christian Braun contribution, the Nuggets are really maximizing most of their offseason acquisitions. Aside from the struggling KCP, who came from the Wizards, Denver is being helped generously in spots by Bruce Brown. And based on what he’s done so far, this should continue in Game 4.
Brown signed a two-year contract at a very team-friendly $13.2 million (with an option for next season, so he’ll seek big dollars this summer). His ability to swing between guard and forward, and defend players at both spots, makes him useful in Malone’s rotation.
Braun and Brown allow Malone to seek reinforcements without worry with KCP and Michael Porter Jr. struggling to find their rhythm. The drop-off from those two starters to the two reserves hasn’t been significant, and if anything, Braun and Brown are playing better.
Brown didn’t have many great offers last summer — hence, the reasonable price tag — and said it still drives him.
“That just added a chip on my shoulder to come out and prove what I can do in this league,” he said. “Denver was just a perfect fit. Everything fell in the right place. So I’m happy to be here.”
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Shaun Powell has covered the NBA for more than 25 years. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Twitter.
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