After suffering their first playoff loss in nearly a month (May 7 to June 4), the Denver Nuggets responded with their best game of the Finals, earning a 109-94 win over the Heat behind a historic performance from their star duo of Nikola Jokic (first ever 30-20-10 Finals game) and Jamal Murray (30-10-10) as they became the first teammates to ever post 30-point triple-doubles in the same game. Now it is time for the Heat to respond as they try to even the series on their home court in Game 4 and avoid a 3-1 deficit heading back to Denver.

1. Continue to mix up coverages on Murray

The two-man game between Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray was transcendent in Game 3 as the Nuggets duo combined for 66 points and became the first teammates in NBA history to post 30-point triple-doubles in the same game.

The Nuggets scored 1.4 points per possession when Jokic set an on-ball screen for Murray in Game 3, which is on par with the best team in transition during this year’s playoffs (Phoenix at 1.39 points per possession). Jokic set a total of 38 on-ball screens for Murray over 30 possessions, with Denver scoring 42 points on those possessions.

By comparison, the Heat’s top screening duo was Bam Adebayo setting 19 on-ball screens for Jimmy Butler, but the Heat scored just 0.69 points per possession on those plays.

In Denver’s two wins, Murray and Jokic shared the scoring load for the Nuggets nearly evenly – 27 for Jokic and 26 for Murray in Game 1 (Jokic +1); 34 for Murray and 32 for Jokic in Game 2 (Murray +2). Denver’s only loss in the series came when Miami took away that balance – 41 for Jokic and 18 for Murray in Game 3 (Jokic +23).

Miami Defenders on Murray

The Heat have used a variety of defensive strategies to try to break up this two-man game and focus on Murray. Not only have the Heat used multiple defenders on him, they have thrown their zone at the Nuggets, and in Game 3 began to blitz Murray on dribble hand-offs and pick-and-rolls with Jokic.

The result was Murray seeing 12 double teams in Game 3 and Denver scoring 1.08 points per possession. While Miami only forced one turnover on those double teams, they did hold Denver below their overall 1.17 points per possession for the game, so the doubles were relatively effective.

They are risky though because if Murray is able to draw two defenders and still get the ball to Jokic, now you have Jokic having a 4-on-3 advantage to create a shot for either himself or a teammate, similar to what we’ve seen for years with Draymond Green creating for the Warriors when teams trap Stephen Curry in their two-man action at the top of the key.

This strategy also removes another possible rebounder from the play in case the Nuggets miss. Denver had 13 offensive rebounds in Game 3 and a 58-33 overall advantage on the glass.

The biggest takeaway here is that the Heat need to continue to mix up their coverages and not give Jokic and Murray a steady diet of any particular tactic. Heat head coach Spoelstra addressed this in his practice day media session on Thursday.

“Whatever you do, you can’t do it all the time,” he said. “There [are] no absolutes when you get to this level. It’s the highest level of competition. You’re getting the highest level of execution. Understanding what they’re trying to get to, and we try to get them out of their comfort zones as much as possible.”

2. Increase the pace on the shortest rest of the series

The Heat will need to play at a faster pace if they want to tie the series in Game 4.

This has been the slowest pace series of the playoffs for both teams (90.67 possessions per 48 minutes) and the second slowest in the entire NBA Playoffs – only the Sixers sweep of the Nets in the first round was played at a slower pace (90.50) than the Finals.

The Heat showed they can thrive while playing with pace in their first-round series against the top-seeded Bucks (101.98 possessions per 48 minutes).

Part of the reason to play at a slower pace in the Finals was to limit Denver’s points in transition as they entered the Finals ranked second in fast break points (16.6 per game) compared to 12^th for Miami (11.1).

But Game 4 may be the time for the Heat to hit the NOS and go Fast and Furious style and try to make this a 48-minute track meet. Part of Heat Culture is their intense fitness and conditioning program as Miami prides itself on being a team in great physical shape ready to take on all challenges.

With Game 4 tipping off less than 48 hours after the end of Game 3 – the only game in the series that does not have two full days off in between – now is the time for the Heat to test the Nuggets’ conditioning – especially that of Jokic and Murray, who both logged huge minutes in Game 3.

Game 3 marked only the ninth time that Jamal Murray has logged 45 minutes or more in his career – he’s played 461 games between the regular season and playoffs – and the first eight of those games came before he suffered his ACL tear in April 2021.

Jokic’s 44 minutes are tied for the second-most he’s played all season. The last time he played this many minutes – 45 in Denver’s close-out game of the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals – he had nine days off before his next game. In Game 3, Jokic did not sit at all in the second half as Denver was determined to swing the series – and the home-court advantage – back in their favor. Now they have to recover quickly and do it again.

Will the Heat test the fitness of Murray and Jokic and try to wear them out by the time the fourth quarter rolls around on Friday?

3. Limit miscues that did not burn you in Game 3

While Jokic and Murray made history with their Game 3 performances, and Denver took a 2-1 series lead by earning a 15-point win on the road, the film still showed areas for improvement for Nuggets coach Michael Malone.

“As we watched it as a staff and then with the team, there was nothing about the historical night that it was,” he said about the film session. “We’re addressing all the areas where we have to be better. Too many turnovers, too many offensive rebounds.”

Denver committed 14 turnovers in Game 3, leading to 17 Heat points. Conversely, Miami committed only four turnovers (marking only the second time in Finals history that a team has turned the ball over four times or less), leading to eight Nuggets points.

Denver scored on each of Miami’s miscues (2.0 points per Miami turnover), while Miami scored 17 points on Denver’s 14 mistakes (1.2 points per Denver turnover). If Miami had turned those turnovers into more points, Game 3 would have been much closer than it ended up.

It’s a similar story with second-chance points. While the Nuggets dominated the glass in Game 3 – finishing with a plus-25 advantage (58-33) in total rebounds and a plus-3 advantage in offensive rebounds (13-10) – those 10 extended possessions pose a threat if they continue. In Game 3, Miami was unable to take full advantage of their offensive boards, converting them to just seven points (0.70 points per offensive rebound), while Denver turned their 13 offensive boards into 14 points (1.08 points per offensive rebound).

The Heat’s film session backed up what Spoelstra mentioned in his postgame remarks on Thursday – that Miami got beat on the effort plays that they usually dominate.

“Like I said after the game, the film also substantiated that, those areas – ball in the air, ball on the floor, 50/50 balls, the physicality parts of the game – for the most part they are winning those. Clearly, the rebounding differential was probably the most glaring sign.”

Miami finished with a 14-8 advantage in deflections, but the Nuggets doubled up the Heat in loose balls recovered, 8-4, in Game 3. Denver also contested 11 more shots than Miami did on Thursday for a 59-48 advantage. A key for the Nuggets entering Game 3 was to limit the open/wide-open 3-point shots for the Heat’s shooters after Denver had allowed 30 of those shots in each of the first two games.

In Game 3, the Heat finished with 25 uncontested 3-point attempts and made 10 of those shots, shooting 3-of-16 on open looks (closest defender 4-6 feet away from the shooter) and 7-of-9 on wide-open looks (closest defender 6+ feet away). Miami’s wide-open looks have decreased over the course of the series from 16 in Game 1 (five makes), to 10 in Game 2 (five makes) and nine in Game 3 (seven makes).

“For me, I can’t speak for any other coach, like when you lose a game, the first reaction isn’t we have to change the game plan,” Malone said. “For me, the first reaction is are we executing the game plan correctly. In Game 2, we didn’t. That led to countless mistakes, which led to a lot of points for Miami where we could have been a lot better.

“Last night [in Game 3] only 11 made 3s. The defense was much better. The communication and discipline was much better. That is what I’m most proud about is the buy-in, commitment, urgency that we had. It will have to be even better tomorrow night.”