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Louis Zatzman

We’ve got a battle between an alligator and an eagle brewing. The matchup between the Milwaukee Bucks and the Indiana Pacers features two teams with different styles, who fight on different battlegrounds, and exist in entirely different habitats. Whoever dictates terms will be the winner. &nbsp;

And it’s not a stretch to say that these two teams are relative strangers to one another. Of course, they played five games against each other, one more than the usual number between in-conference opponents. (The extra game was due to the In-Season Tournament.) And yet, both teams are very different now than they were during those contests.&nbsp;

Doc Rivers began coaching the Bucks on Jan. 29, almost a full month after the final regular-season game between the two teams. Since Rivers took the reins, the Bucks changed their approach dramatically on both ends. (More on that throughout the piece.) And the Pacers traded for Pascal Siakam, a bonafide second star alongside Tyrese Haliburton, on Jan. 18. &nbsp;

Let’s break down every possible angle of the series, the matchups and strategies, and forecast how each team might approach the series and the adjustments that come between games. &nbsp;

This section has more potential impact than one would hope. It’s unclear whether Giannis Antetokounmpo will be available to start the series. He strained his calf in the third quarter of Milwaukee’s Apr. 9 win over the Boston Celtics and hasn’t played in a game since. Antetokounmpo remains the Bucks’ best player and the catalyst of their approach on both ends. If he misses any time, Indiana would face a very different Bucks team without him. Milwaukee went 4-5 in the regular season when Antetokounmpo didn’t suit up. &nbsp;

AJ Green is also questionable with an injured ankle. And Lillard is dealing with a sore left adductor that kept him out of some practices in the week leading up the start of the series. The team expects Lillard to be ready to play. &nbsp;

For the Pacers, Bennedict Mathurin is out for the series after undergoing shoulder surgery. He is the team’s highest-volume bench scorer. He hasn’t played since early March. He was the Pacers’ third-leading scorer in the season series against Milwaukee and had the highest plus-minus, winning his minutes by 35 points. His loss is a major one in this matchup. &nbsp;

The numbers here are relatively even in the big picture despite different paths in the process. &nbsp;

Because both teams’ seasons changed so much in the middle, let’s revisit the same numbers since Jan. 29, after which time both the Bucks and Pacers were their “newest selves.”&nbsp;

Since their evolutions, both teams saw their offensive potency drop by small amounts, but their defenses improve. Siakam gave the Pacers more size and more versatility as a big initiator and switchable defender, while Rivers switched up Milwaukee’s schemes on both ends. &nbsp;

The season-long numbers, and those since Jan. 29, both indicate that the possession count will be a major battleground for the series. The Pacers are a very poor defensive rebounding team, with Myles Turner notching one of the lowest defensive rebounding rates among starting centers in the league. Of course, Brook Lopez’s defensive rebounding rate is even lower, but he has Antetokounmpo to help clean up the glass there; no one on the Pacers is such a weapon from elsewhere on the positional spectrum. &nbsp;

Obi Toppin led the Pacers in offensive rebounds over the series, with 11. But the Pacers collected them across the roster. Meanwhile Antetokounmpo collected 11 steals, although his offensive rebounding was below his season average. The Pacers were the team that seemed to make a point of winning the possession battle in the season series. Expect the Bucks to prioritize that as well going forward. &nbsp;

Neither team is great at forcing turnovers, nor does either have the personnel required to dial up the defensive aggression. As a result, expect rebounding to be the most important lever for the possession battle. If Milwaukee does win on the offensive glass, that would also keep Indiana out of transition by forcing them to stick around and box out as a collective unit. Don’t be surprised to see the Bucks chasing offensive rebounds with one or even two bodies on misses.  &nbsp;

This might be burying the lede, but the Pacers did exceptionally well against the Bucks this year, including knocking them out of the In-Season Tournament. They were the only team in the league to beat the Bucks more than twice this season. &nbsp;

The possession battle was a vital decider in the regular-season series - not in Milwaukee’s favor. The Pacers forced more turnovers than Milwaukee and outrebounded them, which meant Indiana ended up taking 481 shots to Milwaukee’s 457 over the course of five games. In fact, the Pacers averaged the second-most second-chance points of any team against the Bucks this season. With Indiana’s offense so potent, giving them an extra five or six shots per game in the playoffs would make the series an uphill climb for the Bucks. &nbsp;

Many of Milwaukee’s adaptations under Rivers should help in this matchup specifically. Since Jan. 29, they have improved at limiting opposing offensive rebounds and are now a top-five defensive rebounding team. Similarly, they have been a top-five team at limiting opposing fastbreak points since Jan. 29. &nbsp;

Both teams shot cold from deep, as Lillard and Lopez both connected at sub-30 percent rates in the series against Indiana. For the Pacers, it was Buddy Hield, Bruce Brown, and Mathurin shooting well below their season averages, but Hield and Brown are on new teams, and Mathurin won’t be available. The current Pacers who did play in the series, such as Haliburton and Turner, mostly shot quite well. &nbsp;

The season series was not as lopsided as a 1-4 record might indicate. The Bucks led at some point in the fourth quarter in four of the five games and in the second half in all five. Both teams have changed dramatically since the most recent game between the two, so in some ways, you can throw these numbers out the door. &nbsp;

Based on how both teams are constructed now, what can we expect? A quick caveat: these matchups aren’t guaranteed. I am assuming that Antetokounmpo is in the starting lineup, although that is far from certain to begin the series. And though Beverley supplanted Malik Beasley in the starting lineup, Milwaukee only played one game with the listed starting lineup. (Antetokounmpo hurt himself that game, which is why it didn’t close the season.) Milwaukee’s projected starting lineup went 1-0 in the season. Indiana went 15-10 with their projected starting lineup. &nbsp;

Neither team did a great job guarding the other in the regular-season series, so some of the stats on both sides are inflated. There will be lots of matchup questions, but if either team leaves defenders on an island without help, it will be a free basket. Both teams have initiators with too much skill, too much burst, for single defenders to guard them. Take matchups with more of a salt lick than a salt grain. There will be switching, cross-matching, and likely so much rotating that mostly everyone will get a crack guarding everyone else. &nbsp;

Also: Because neither Beverley nor Siakam played a game against the other team while with their respective current squads, the upcoming numbers use their data from previous matchups this season. 

Milwaukee's offensive players possessions against vs. Indiana's defensive players, (points-shot attempts):

Antetokounmpo was virtually unstoppable no matter who was guarding him. This table only includes projected starters of the upcoming series, but Antetokounmpo also scored 19 points on 12 shots against former Pacers’ starter Buddy Hield as well as equally efficient lines against a variety of Indiana’s bench players. Perhaps nothing indicates his success against any defender as well as his simple box score averages in the five games: 42.2 points per game on 67.6 percent shooting from the field. &nbsp;

Indiana’s stars enjoyed their matchups, too.

Milwaukee's defensive players possessions against vs. Indiana's offensive players, (points-shot attempts):

Haliburton scored quite efficiently against virtually any defender during the season series. And Siakam’s numbers are muted – he only played two games against the Bucks this year, and both as a Raptor. Indiana’s offense is significantly more explosive than Toronto’s, and Siakam has had much more room to operate since the trade.&nbsp;

Here are my guesses for matchups, starting with Milwaukee on offense:&nbsp;

Nembhard is Indiana’s guard stopper, and he was relatively successful against Lillard this year. He is stronger than offensive players suspect and anticipates well. No one can take away Lillard’s stepback jumper, but Nembhard is Indiana’s best chance to limit Lillard’s driving game. &nbsp;

The Pacers like to hide Haliburton on teams’ weaker offensive guards, so they’ll likely start him on Beverley. Beverley could take him into the post and try to force Haliburton to work on defense. Haliburton has surprising length for a point guard, and Beverley's attacking him would take the ball out of Lillard and Antetokounmpo’s hands. My guess is that if the Bucks want to hunt Haliburton's defense, it would be by playing Lillard and Malik Beasley together, forcing Haliburton to either chase a movement shooter or guard on the ball. &nbsp;

Siakam should be long enough to help contest Middleton’s post game. Though Siakam has seen his defensive ability at the point of attack wane in recent years, Middleton isn’t the bursty driver that can take advantage of that. Both players are positional, tactical movers, so Siakam makes sense as Middleton’s primary defender. &nbsp;

The Pacers used Turner to guard Antetokounmpo through much of the season series, and it did not go well. Turner is a strong defender, but Antetokounmpo can generally take sharp angles and turn the corner on Turner with ease. Indiana has generally viewed Nesmith as its best wing stopper – he was Indiana’s primary defender on LeBron James on Apr. 29, for example. Nesmith is strong and mobile and he will have lots of help in guarding Antetokounmpo. &nbsp;

A straight center-center positional matchup. This lets Turner guard the majority of Bucks’ pick and rolls as the screener defender. Turner will be helping liberally on Antetokounmpo, so Lopez will see plenty of open jumpers that he’ll need to convert.&nbsp;

Beverley is Milwaukee’s best pick-and-roll handler defender, and he was acquired with matchups like this one in mind. &nbsp;

Lillard did well guarding Haliburton during the season series. And Lillard had a better defensive season than perhaps ever in his career, with the Bucks significantly better on the defensive end with him on the court than on the bench. But he ought to start on Nembhard and let Beverley expend energy as the tip of the defensive spear. Lillard will have heavy lifting to do on the offensive end, especially if Antetokounmpo misses time.&nbsp;

Straight small forward-small forward matchup. Nesmith is shooting over 40 percent from deep on the year. I expect the Bucks to test that and let Middleton stunt an extra step into the lane on actions to muck up the middle of the floor. Nesmith has only shot 20 percent from deep in his career in the playoffs, so the Bucks might let Middleton roam, at least until it starts hurting them. &nbsp;

Siakam is a post demon, with a bag of fakes and spins and drop steps equal to anyone’s in the league. Traditionally, Antetokounmpo has been Milwaukee’s primary defender against Siakam, but Siakam has actually scored very efficiently in that matchup. Most teams use centers against Siakam, as they have the length and bulk to force his post moves away from the rim. Antetokounmpo will be best employed elsewhere.&nbsp;

Turner gave the Bucks enormous amounts of trouble during the season series, and his ability to pop after setting a screen and drain triples, or drive against closeouts, makes the drop-and-over defensive approach basically untenable when he’s the screener for Haliburton. The Bucks will have to switch and Antetokounmpo is one of the most capable switch bigs in the league. Picks that Indiana ran defended by Antetokounmpo this season averaged only 0.84 points per chance, while Indiana’s picks defended by Lopez averaged 1.02 points per chance. This matchup would give Milwaukee its best chance at limiting Indiana’s high-powered offense. &nbsp;

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Siakam post-ups

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Giannis finishes over Turner

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Nembhard guarding Lillard drives

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Portis rim-outs on good looks

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Middleton-Portis pick-and-rolls

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Lopez post-ups

This is an area where the Bucks would seem to have an advantage, especially when Antetokounmpo is healthy. In Portis and Beasley, the Bucks have two high-scoring bench players with experience in deep playoff runs. Based on presumptive starters, they will be the two highest-scoring bench players in the series. Indiana doesn’t have the same caliber of volume bench scorers who’ve played in late rounds of the postseason. While Siakam offers the Pacers plenty of playoff experience, and Turner has played in a handful of games, this will be the playoff debut for many of Indiana’s rotation players. Still, the Pacers have found plenty of success with their bench on the court this season. As a collective, Indiana’s bench has been one of its strong suits.&nbsp;

If you use the trend line over the full season, the Pacers have been very successful with bench players on the court. Since the lineup rejigging, key bench players like Bruce Brown are gone, while others like Nesmith and Nembhard are now starting. The Pacers generally find ways to win minutes even with their new bench rotation on the court. &nbsp;

Anticipate Indiana’s four bench players to be Ben Sheppard, TJ McConnell, Obi Toppin, and Jalen Smith. All have been significant contributors. Over the season, Sheppard and Toppin have positive on/off ratings, meaning the team has been better with them playing than on the bench. McConnell’s rating is neutral. Teams usually don’t see as much success with bench players in the game. Indiana has found a rotation that is able to keep its style no matter the players on the court, leading to success across full games. The Pacers actually outscore opponents the most at the end of the first and third quarters, when McConnell and Toppin usually join the starters. &nbsp;

Add it all together, and the Pacers get more scoring from their bench than any other NBA team, while the Bucks are in 19th. The two benches contribute in different ways. The Pacers contribute through the system, with players plugging in and filling the same roles as their starting counterparts whereas the Bucks allow their bench players to bend the style of the team to fit their strengths. Especially when Portis plays, the Bucks see more post-ups and isolations. &nbsp;

Will Indiana’s system scoring off the bench hold up in the playoffs? This is the best season of McConnell’s career, but he hasn’t ever had as large a role in the playoffs as the Pacers are about to need from him. He runs almost as many picks as Haliburton, ranking 11th in frequency in the entire league. He always brings energy, and he probes a defense with commitment, always finding a crack if it appears. &nbsp;

Unlike Haliburton, McConnell is generally most effective against switches, which often allows him to find driving angles. He is committed to reaching the paint. He also passes out of more than half of his picks when defenses switch, which is in the 75th percentile leaguewide. The Bucks will want to use a drop defense against McConnell, but they need to be careful to ensure the center is not too far in the paint and is still able to contest his mid-range game. His rate of shooting when facing a drop is much higher than a switch. Furthermore, McConnell shoots 50 percent on floaters and almost 50 percent on pull-up 2-pointers. (While Middleton leads the league in pull-up 2-pointer percentage, Haliburton, Nembhard, McConnell, and Siakam are all in the top 25 for efficiency on such shots.) If McConnell’s ball-dominant style leads to missed mid-range jumpers over Milwaukee’s length, and the Bucks begin to win the transitional minutes, will the Pacers be able to adapt? &nbsp;

Indiana’s other bench players are not initiators. None of Smith, Toppin, or Sheppard initiate many plays for the Pacers. If Milwaukee is able to cut off the head of the snake on the defensive end and deny advantages to Haliburton, Nembhard, and McConnell, that will greatly limit Indiana’s other bench players. They are mostly spot-up shooters and cutters. If Milwaukee’s switching is seamless and keeps the ball out of the paint, it will dramatically limit Indiana’s bench scoring. Minimizing their own defensive rotations should be a priority for the Bucks. &nbsp;

If Indiana does see its younger rotation players fail to fulfill their roles, the Pacers do have experience on the bench. Doug McDermott is still a knockdown movement shooter, but he is less capable on the defensive end than Indiana’s other bench players. If the Pacers see their offense wane, he could see time later in the series. &nbsp;

For the Bucks, experience is perhaps the greatest strength off the bench. Portis is a champion. He is a switchable big, able to mimic the style that Antetokounmpo brings to defending the pick and roll as the screener defender. He only switched a small handful of times in the season series (and the Pacers did score well on those possessions), but his ability to move the Pacers’ possessions into the next action will be vital. &nbsp;

Beasley can hurt the Pacers. He is one of the best shooters in the league, and he is great at shooting on the move – relocating into empty space and sprinting into shots. He finished 11th in the NBA in made triples. If Beverley starts, Haliburton will guard him. Will Milwaukee use Beverley as a screener to hunt Haliburton? It’s hard to say, and Beverley is not a high-volume scorer. But Beasley can be. When Beverley plays alongside Lillard, and Haliburton is on the floor, the Bucks should involve whomever Haliburton is guarding in every possession. Beasley can screen, ghost, or slip, and sprint into space for rhythm triples. If Haliburton has to guard 10 of those a game, it could go a long way both toward finding points with or without Antetokounmpo, as well as tiring Indiana’s most important player. &nbsp;

Crowder will also play a crucial role for the Bucks. He has played more playoff games than the Bucks as a team since 2016-17. If Antetokounmpo misses time, Crowder will likely see his role expand. He is a natural defender for Siakam. He also held up well over the season defending picks, if at a low volume. He didn’t get a chance to do so against the Pacers. He will be another switch defender, jumping onto Haliburton when defending whomever sets the screen. His ability to survive for a few beats will go a long way toward determining which team wins minutes to end the first and third quarters, when some starters are still playing alongside bench players. If Crowder forces stops against Haliburton and hits triples the other way, those wins around the margin would hold the Bucks in good stead. &nbsp;

Pat Connaughton and AJ Green likely project as Milwaukee’s final rotation players off the bench. Both are knockdown shooters. Connaughton has consistently hit big shots in the playoffs - his career playoff 3-point percentage is a few points higher than regular season. He has hit at or around 40 percent of his triples in his last three playoff runs. Green is an automatic shooter, but has never played in the playoffs. He’s no defensive pushover, but his ability to commit to the details in the crucible of Indiana’s offensive motion will determine his playability. &nbsp;

Jackson should be seen as Milwaukee’s deep-bench ace in the hole. He may not play a minute, but if the Bucks have trouble finding a coverage for Haliburton, Jackson may be asked to try his hand. Milwaukee used him to stymie Immanuel Quickley on Apr. 5 when Toronto’s point guard was running wild. Jackson did a phenomenal job of sticking with him and denying advantages off the bounce. He is Milwaukee’s most athletic guard defender. &nbsp;

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First Round Series Preview: Bucks vs. Pacers

The Milwaukee Bucks have been defined most of all by change, at least to this point of the 2023-24 season. 

First, the team hired a new coach. Then before the games began, a trade for Damian Lillard, one of the best players in the league that season prior. Then, a new new coach. It has been a year of learning and re-learning, construction and reconstruction.

And amidst all the change, the Bucks have remained well positioned for the playoffs. At 35-21, Milwaukee is third in the East and on track for home-court advantage in the playoffs. With the season’s foundation churning beneath the feet of the players and coaching staff, such a record is welcome, even if not equal to the pace from last season. The Bucks are learning on the fly, and winning in the process is not  a given when teams have such priorities. 

There is precedence for success despite steps back in one regular season when compared to the one prior. The 2020-21 Bucks had a slower winning pace in the regular season than in either of the two years prior, yet they ended up winning a championship behind altered systems on both ends of the court. Two steps forward often require one step back, in life and basketball.

And while the Bucks have seen new players and new coaches, the lodestone holding the entire structure together has never been stronger; Giannis Antetokounmpo is in the midst of perhaps his best-ever season. While he scored more points per game last year, he is scoring the second-most of his career this year, and at a career-best efficiency, too. Add in a career high in assists, and a return to the high block and steal rates of earlier in his career, and Anetetokounmpo has never been better. He was an MVP contender last year, finishing third in the race, and he is just as deserving this season, if not more so. According to BBall Index’s LEBRON metric, which combines box-score contributions with on-off data, while adjusting for the ‘luck’ of variance, this is Antetokounmpo’s best offensive season. 

Driven by the consistent domination of Antetokounmpo, and as was the case during that championship season, much has already been figured out. Milwaukee’s net rating with five starters on the floor is exquisite, the fourth-best in the league at plus-11.0. It was almost identical in 2020-21 with starters on the floor -- plus-10.8, second-best in the league. The areas in which Milwaukee has been successful are solid and sustainable. 

While the two-man game between Lillard and Antetokounmpo has taken much of the season to build to our lofty expectations, it is now one of the most dangerous attacks in the league. They’re more than deserving of their All-Star statuses, particularly given Lillard’s taking home the game MVP as well as defending his 3-point shooting contest crown. But among 48 duos with at least 300 pick and rolls run together, Lillard and Antetokounmpo ranked third overall for points per pick-and-roll chance. Both are devastating scorers when they combine on the ball, and the options are endless for one or the other to create an easy look.

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Dame-Giannis pick and roll for own scores

The threat isn’t just the scoring of Lillard and Antetokounmpo themselves. The defensive attention such a play requires creates plenty of open scoring chances for their teammates, too.

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Dame-Giannis pick and roll for teammates

Both of their preferences change when running picks together. While Lillard sees an almost equal share of popping versus rolling from his non-Antetokounmpo screeners, when it’s his co-star in the action, it’s almost always a roll. And Antetokounmpo is also slipping screens more than he has in his career, stretching the defense taut by jetting behind the back line while Lillard’s threat of pull-up shooting pulls the point of attack away from the rim. That has benefits, considering Antetokounmpo this season has scored 182 more buckets from within five feet than the player in second place. He is making the most shots per game from within five feet in NBA Advanced Stats’ database history (beginning in 1996-97), shooting more attempts and more efficiently than Shaquille O’Neal, for example, in 1997-98, his best season in the database. 

While Lillard is running a pick with anyone other than Antetokounmpo this season, he is shooting on 46.8 percent of picks and passing on 36.7 percent. But when Antetokounmpo is his screener, that ratio inverts, with him passing on 51.4 percent and shooting on 37.0 percent. (The remainder of possessions are a mix of fouls and turnovers, which is why those percentages don’t add up to 100.) Lillard is a born scorer, but he’s doing his part to make sure he doesn’t use too much of the offense when Antetokounmpo is on the floor. Lillard’s turnover rate is halved when Antetokounmpo is screening for him instead of anyone else. The advantages created in those situations make passing lanes wider and simpler. 

Similarly, when Antetokounmpo sets screens for anyone other than Lillard, he is shooting on 20.8 percent of those possessions. But when it’s Lillard handling with Antetokounmpo screening, he is shooting on 15.6 percent -- Playing with a score-first guard like Lillard has also meant Antetokounmpo needs to adapt his game, becoming more of a decoy and seeing less of the ball. His slips often turn into overreactions from the defense and shots for teammates rather than for Antetokounmpo himself. It benefits the team but still requires an adjustment on the part of the two-time MVP. 

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Giannis slips

All this to say: There is still learning to do, and Lillard and Antetokounmpo can rise higher than third in the league for pick-and-roll efficiency. 

But behind the talents of those two players, Milwaukee has been dominant with its best players on the court. The foursome of Lillard, Khris Middleton, Antetokounmpo, and Brook Lopez is the best four-man unit in the league. With all four playing, the Bucks are 25-11. With any of the four out, the Bucks are 10-10. If there’s an elevator pitch for success, it’s that; when the Bucks are healthy, they are playing some of the best basketball in the league.  

It’s not just pick and rolls. When Lillard drives he is devastating defenses. Among players who have 500 or more drives this season, Lillard’s create the fifth-most efficient possessions. Antetokounmpo’s drives are the fourth-best. Possessions that see a Middleton isolation are the 12th-most efficient in the league. Lopez is defending 9.0 shots per game from within six feet, the third-most in the league and above his mark last season. And he’s limiting opponents to 9.0 percentage points below expected efficiency on those shots, also a top-10 mark league-wide. All have their strengths, and all have been among the league leaders in those areas.

At the shooting-guard position, while Milwaukee has seen varying contributions from the roster, it has always had someone step up to the plate for any occasion. Doc Rivers has settled on Malik Beasley to take the lion’s share of wing minutes, with AJ Green rising in the depth chart. Shooting has been the priority there.

At a team-wide level, Milwaukee has risen to the occasion when facing the league’s best. The Bucks have one of the best point differentials in the league when facing other teams at the top.

The Bucks have been at their best when facing the best. Points per 100 possessions based on opponent ranking:

The gap when facing the top teams versus the bottom ones is a strange quirk, and no other team in the top 10 for point differential per 100 possessions against the best teams is also in the bottom 10 for the same category against the worst teams. Those worst teams are shooting better from 3-point range than the best teams when facing Milwaukee, so there is surely shooting variance determining some portion of the difference. But at minimum, it bodes well for Milwaukee that they are at their best when facing good teams; only good teams will remain in the playoffs. 

There are still things the Bucks need to address -- the remainder of the season isn’t just a walk to the playoffs. The time will be spent usefully. Of course, Rivers still needs time to fully integrate his systems on both ends. 

Milwaukee’s defense has been improving under Rivers. Since Rivers’ first game as head coach on Jan. 29, the Bucks have ranked 10th in defensive rating, a big improvement on the first half of the year. While the Bucks had spent much of the year trying to innovate their defense, they’ve settled into positive habits under Rivers. They’ve been terrific at cleaning the glass on that end, and they’ve allowed both the fewest transition possessions per game to opposing offenses and limited those possessions to the lowest efficiency. The offense has taken a dip, but that has largely been driven by health and availability. 

But not all success or failure is dispersed evenly throughout a single game. Perhaps most importantly, the Bucks need to reprioritize crucial minutes that used to be a relative strength: when Antetokounmpo goes to the bench. His off-court net rating last year of negative-1.4 has turned into negative-5.7 this season. There has been one lineup distribution specifically that hasn’t been as dominant. Last season, in 248 minutes with Antetokounmpo off and Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton playing, the Bucks had a net rating of plus-9.8. This season, in 95 minutes with Antetokounmpo off and Damian Lillard and Middleton playing, the Bucks have a net rating of negative-11.3.  

The most important number there is not the net rating, but the minutes total. The Bucks have played 815 minutes this season with Antetokounmpo not in the game. To have only had Middleton and Lillard together for 95 of those is a bitter downside of the year to this point. The Bucks need health, not just for success, but also to build chemistry. Lillard and Middleton have run only 62 picks together. Those picks have scored just about as efficiently as have Lillard and Brook Lopez in combination -- but the latter have run almost 700 such actions together. Rivers doesn’t just need time to build the team -- he also needs health.

Without Antetokounmpo, the offense slows down greatly, with an average possession lasting almost a full second longer. (As a point of comparison, the gap between the fastest and the slowest offense in the NBA is just under a second and a half.) The team takes far fewer shots at the rim and far more from the midrange. That’s not necessarily a negative, as it means the team shapes much more to the context created by Lillard. And his usage skyrockets from 24.6 percent alongside Antetokounmpo to 37.2 percent when he’s on the bench. 

Lillard can lead those groups to success. There is a framework for success with Antetokounmpo on the bench. The most-used core without Antetokounmpo sees Lillard alongside Bobby Portis and Lopez, and they have won their minutes. With Malik Beasley on the court, that group has a behemoth net rating of plus-13.8. Of course, that still has three starters on the court, so it’s hardly a bench group. But it’s something on which to build. And Patrick Beverley can also help greatly, there. 

If Milwaukee had a wish list, a Christmas list in February, it would have a number of items. But health and availability would be first and foremost, as the Bucks have crushed opponents when healthy. And health will continue to be a much-needed catalyst for figuring out the team identity without Antetokounmpo on the floor. But the big things have been taken care of. Antetokounmpo is in the midst of another MVP-caliber season. Milwaukee has a number of statement wins to its name, with wire-to-wire wins over the defending champion Denver Nuggets as well as the Boston Celtics. Milwaukee has been one of the best in the league at beating the best. Finally, Lillard and Antetokounmpo are slowly becoming an indomitable force when working together.

If prior to the season the Bucks had been offered that totality of results to this point, I’m sure they would have taken the deal. It’s far from a given that any other team would be third in its Conference while dealing with so much change. So far, so good. Now the most important goal, for the remainder of the regular season, is to put an end to the change and find consistency in health and performance. The job’s far from done, and much needs to be accomplished going forward, both in terms of victories and in preparation for them.&nbsp;

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Adapting to Change: A Midseason Recap

There’s one main reason why one might find yourself eating pumpkin: It’s in a delicious pie.

There are plenty of other benefits to pumpkin, to be sure. The seeds are delicious. It’s healthy. It’s the best latte spice out there. But pumpkin pie dwarfs the remainder of the pumpkin-related purposes.

Similarly, there is one key reason that recommends Patrick Beverley to this specific iteration of the Milwaukee Bucks: He is one of the best pick-and-roll defenders in the league. There are surely more to his abilities, but that is the pumpkin pie of his game. 

Beverley only averaged 19.6 minutes per game for the Philadelphia 76ers this year, but he defended a top-60 rate of picks as the ballhandler defender within those minutes. And among players to have defended at least 400 picks, none held opposing offenses to a lower points per chance. 

In his first game for the Bucks, he defended the ballhandler during six picks. Milwaukee allowed only three points in those possessions. The Bucks are now 2-1 with Beverley in the lineup. There has been more to those games than Beverley’s performances, but he has fit in smoothly, accomplishing exactly what the Bucks needed. 

He has been one of the league’s best pick-and-roll defenders through a variety of means. He spent his time with Philadelphia playing mostly drop-and-over, which is exactly what the Bucks play as well. And while the team defense has improved in some ways under Doc Rivers, the pick-and-roll defense remains a work in progress. Before acquiring Beverley, it allowed the fourth-highest points per chance among teams since Jan. 29, when Rivers coached his first game. 

Enter Beverley. He will chase ballhanders inside the arc and fight to recover position. He uses nifty footwork to dodge screens, and he ranks in the 91st percentile at not running into ball screens as the ballhandler defender. As a result, he often finds himself behind the balhandler, but he does so within the scheme of the defense and in order to shepherd the ball towards the big. He is excellent at fighting back into position once he finds a ballhandler in front of him. He worked well with Joel Embiid in Philadelphia, and he should have the same chemistry with Brook Lopez in Milwaukee once everyone is healthy and accustomed to the system. 

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Pat Bev drop and over recovery

He can even occasionally detonate an entire possession by simply taking the ball from his opponents, and not just by jumping their dribbles. He has a huge block rate for a point guard; among players standing his height or below, he has the fifth-highest block rate in the league. While many of his blocks are mislabeled steals when he slaps down on the ball when a shooter is rising, he gathers a fair share of swats at the summit, too. 

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Pat Bev block from behind

While the Sixers mostly asked him to go over screens, he also switched as his second-most frequent defensive approach in the pick and roll. Beverley is comfortably switching onto wings and sticking with them for a possession, or even onto bigs and three-quartering the post to deny them the ball. Though Beverley has only defended a handful of picks so far in Milwaukee, he has actually switched more than any other defensive approach. He is also terrific at blitzing to get the ball out of opponents’ hands, and he digs into dribbles with aggression, often forcing steps backwards to allow for his teammates to recover their positioning. 

At times, the Sixers actually matched Beverley up against enormous players, with him playing plenty of defensive possessions against monster wings like Anthony Edwards, Scottie Barnes, Jayson Tatum, and others. The commonality between those possessions is that they scored little; Beverley takes perceived mismatches seriously, with a chip on his shoulder. 

Similarly, the Bucks used him mostly against Michael Porter jr. in their 112-95 win over the defending champions on Feb. 12. The Denver Nuggets had four turnovers in those 13 possessions, including one forced by Beverley himself on Porter.

pat-bev-guarding-mpj

Pat Bev guarding MPJ

That has long been his modus operandi: play hard, play fierce, and never stop moving. As a result, Beverley has always been a good defender, with his teams defending opponents better with him on the floor versus the bench during every season of his career except 2014-15. He has done that in many ways beyond how he defends pick and rolls.

Beverley is one of the best rebounders for his position. Despite his size, he battles in the paint, no matter the size of his opponent. He has been at or above the 75th percentile among point or combo guards for both offensive and defensive rebounding rate every season since 2018-19, excepting his partial year as a Laker.One of the major sacrifices of increased switching across the league is that it gives opposing offenses added offensive rebounding opportunities; when players are in rotation and guarding across the positional spectrum, it gives crashing lanes and makes boxing out much harder. Beverley helps in those situations. He will box out a big or die (get fouled) trying. If he’s in rotation and doesn’t have a specific player he’s guarding, he’ll find someone to hit as the ball is going up. Effort will never be a question mark.

Beyond the skills and abilities, Beverley is a veteran who knows how to win. Like Rivers, or Jae Crowder last year, Beverley is one of the most experienced playoff performers in the league -- he has played in 65 playoff games, the 44th most since entering the league in 2012-13. He will help organize the team’s transition defense, help communicate coverages on the floor, and ensure everyone is where he is supposed to be. That will have other cascading advantages; zones -- with which Milwaukee has struggled under Rivers -- will be more solid, for example.  

Beverley’s early minutes as a Buck has typified those tertiary abilities. He is keeping the offense organized and playing within himself. In Beverley’s very first minutes, against the Charlotte Hornets, the Bucks got two quick stops behind his energy and went on a quick 6-0 run. He played only 12 minutes, but his impact was immediate and sustained. In fact: The first thing he did was force a stop defending the pick and roll, run to the corner in transition, and hit a 3-pointer.

To that point, there are offensive benefits to employing Beverley, too. He is a shooting specialist, taking 42 percent of his shots from deep this year. But that’s actually the lowest rate of his career. He’s augmented those jumpers with the second-highest rate of drives of his career -- and the second-most efficient. He’s passing and shooting on a perfectly equal number of drives, so he’s not a one-trick pony there. When he’s looking to score, the shots are usually coming from the short mid-range, where he’s taking 30 percent of his shots -- an 85th-percentile rate for combo guards. He’s very comfortable with floaters and runners and push shots, on which he’s shooting 50 percent, a top-15 mark in the league among players with 50 or more such attempts. 

When Beverley drives to pass, the Sixers have been scoring even more efficiently than when he is the one shooting. Beverley has a good nose for internal passes for layups. He finds cutters, lobs to his bigs, and bounce passes through tight windows. 

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Pat Bev driving assists

Beverley will keep the chains moving offensively, and he’s more than just a standstill shooter. Still, don’t expect him to step in as a star scorer. Milwaukee’s offensive hierarchy is set. Beverley is coming to town as a defender. The offense is a cherry on top of the defense. 

Expect him to fit into a variety of lineups. Beverley will step in as Milwaukee’s backup point guard behind Damian Lillard, which has been his only usage so far. But he could play alongside Lillard for stretches as well. That would see Beverley defending at the point of attack to keep Lillard off the ball. If Milwaukee wants to ramp up its transition attack by playing lots of guards together, Beverley and Lillard can play alongside Malik Beasley for a flamethrowing combination with Beverley guarding forwards and trying to force as many turnovers as possible. If the Bucks want to downsize with Giannis Antetokounmpo at center, Beverley will certainly be on the court. His physicality and rebounding make such options possible. 

Ultimately, the Bucks have offense already on the roster at the guard spots; Beasley, Andre Jackson jr., and MarJon Beauchamp can all provide a variety of abilities. But the Bucks needed defensive versatility as the straw to stir the drink. That’s where Beverley will fit in. He won’t harm the offense, even if he isn’t the nuclear option that Beasley is. But he will make so much more possible. 

At the bare minimum, he is going to help lock down the pick and roll for Milwaukee. The pick and roll is the staple food in the NBA, the alpha and omega of league-wide offense. It is the primary play type of every team across the league. And Milwaukee has not been stopping such a foundational play for much of the year. Beverley will help there. That’s lifting the floor, adding vital and core skills to a team that needs them. And by unlocking so many other variations of the team, he will also help raise Milwaukee’s ceiling, allowing the team’s best to be even better. 

If Beverley does fix Milwaukee’s pick-and-roll defense, then all the Bucks will embrace their inner pumpkin pie and be giving thanks when it comes time for the playoffs.

the-patrick-beverley-effect

The Patrick Beverley Effect

The Beatles conquered the world in a few short years. They released Please Please Me in 1963, and a year later the United States was obsessed, with Beatlemania beginning, as they appeared on The Ed Sullivan Show in 1964. They played boyband pop music, with bowl cuts and borrowed rock riffs. That is, until 1965. Rubber Soul in 1965 and Revolver the next year marked dramatic changes. The music grew swampy. The hair grew long. The lyrics were less about love and increasingly about global consciousness. The Beatles conquered the world and a few short years later decided to completely change what made them so successful.&nbsp;

That’s exactly what the Milwaukee Bucks did this season -- change something that already worked. And now, they’re going to rebuild the defense anew under Doc Rivers. Rivers is as experienced as coaches get in the NBA, with the fourth-most games coached in the postseason, and winning record of 111-105 in them. He will shift Milwaukee’s defense further.

But to understand where the Bucks are going, we first have to understand where the Bucks have been on the defensive end.&nbsp;

During the four regular seasons prior to this one, the Bucks held the lowest defensive rating of any team in the league. They had the tied-best defensive rating for those combined postseasons, as well -- all while playing in the fourth-most playoff games. They were a defensive powerhouse, year in and year out. And yet as the league shifted in its offensive approach, with pull-up shooting and elbow actions colonizing every team’s playbook, and average offensive output boomed, Milwaukee’s defense mostly stayed the same. In 2018-19, when Milwaukee’s defensive run of dominance began, the best offense in the league -- belonging to Steph Curry and Kevin Durant -- had a rating of 115.9. Fast forward to today, and that would rank 16th. (The Bucks themselves are at 121.3, second in the league and also on pace to rank second all time.)&nbsp;

While Milwaukee’s defense stayed the same, offense around the league exploded. Sometimes even things that work well need a change.&nbsp;

For years under Mike Budenholzer, the Bucks tried to win on the defensive end by controlling where opponents took their shots on the floor, forcing opposing ballhandlers to take pull-up jumpers, runners, and floaters. They did that by dropping Brook Lopez deep into the paint in the pick and roll and asking the ballhandler defender to go over the screen, shepherding the ball into the paint and towards Lopez. The approach concedes pull-up shooting but defangs so much else on the floor by protecting the paint and limiting off-ball damage. Milwaukee has been the premier drop-and-over defense for years.

All told during the previous five years, Milwaukee ranked second in frequency and third in efficiency allowed on pick and rolls defended with the center dropping and the guard going over. This season? It was down to 16th in frequency and 11th in efficiency allowed under Adrian Griffin prior to games on Jan. 24.&nbsp;

The reason why Milwaukee shifted such a foundational pillar of its identity is because the league is getting better at exactly the shots such a defense allows. The league as a whole is shooting better on pull-up 3-pointers this season than ever before, and when a ballhandler defender chases over a screen with the screener defender in the paint, that shot is almost always available. Or if the ballhandler chooses to probe into the paint, a floater is also quite open -- this season the league is scoring more efficiently on those shots than in any season recorded.

In many ways, Milwaukee’s playoff loss to the Miami Heat last year was indicative of how the league was catching up to Milwaukee’s defense. The Heat attempted 34.0 pull-up jumpers per 100 possessions over last year’s playoff series with an effective field goal (eFG) percentage of 58.3. The best any team has ever done on pull-up jumpers over a full season was the Golden State Warriors in 2015-16, who reached an eFG percentage of 52.6, and they attempted just 20 such shots per 100 possessions. So there was some luck involved in Milwaukee’s playoff loss. But Milwaukee’s old defensive approach opened itself up to the variance inherent to the short length of a playoff series.&nbsp;

So Griffin went back to the drawing board, trying to identify a new approach that would not lose to variance.&nbsp;

That started with more switching. The Bucks spent a huge amount of time working on a new switching defense in the 2020-21 regular season, and that contributed to their winning a championship that postseason. While Milwaukee went away from switching to an extent last season, it's back in a big way now; the Bucks have been switching a higher frequency of picks this season than they did in 2020-21. They’ve been switching almost as much as they’re playing drop-and-over; in 2019-20, it was almost a 7:1 ratio in favor of drop-and-over.&nbsp;

Giannis Antetokounmpo represents a meaningful microcosm for the intentions of the team to this point in the season. The changes in his role on the court and how the Bucks are using him to limit opponents refract those of the team at large.&nbsp;

In past seasons, Milwaukee used Antetokounmpo as a secondary big on the floor alongside Lopez. He had been in the paint to sandwich drivers, contesting anything that comes his way. But this season the number of shots that he’s challenging has dropped. Giannis Antetokounmpo is contesting fewer shots this season

Instead of contesting those extra shots, Antetokounmpo under Griffin this season had spent a larger share of his time on court coverage. He was running further distances per game on defense than he had since the 2017-18 season, and he was changing direction more frequently. He was playing more like a guard this year than in years prior.

Prior to games on Jan. 24, he had been defending more pick and rolls as the ballhandler defender (and fewer as the screener defender) than since 2020-21. And when he was defending the screener, he did it largely by switching -- again, which he was doing more than he has in years. He switched almost 200 picks as the screener defender, the third-most in the league.

Switching grinds an offense into the mud. While it opens up mismatches, it closes off in-rhythm pull-up shooting and invites isolations. To that point, Antetokounmpo was also defending a higher rate of isolations this year than ever before. And though he’s not statistically the best isolation defender in the league or even in Milwaukee, he is well above average and has more than enough length to deter pull-up 3s and force opponents inside the arc to Lopez.&nbsp;

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Giannis Switches

And as a result of his role change, Antetokounmpo was averaging higher block and steal rates than he did last season. He’s more active and less reactive. He’s playing in a variety of different situations, which is the whole point: Even if this year’s Bucks may have a slower fastball on the defensive end, there are more pitches available to throw.&nbsp;

That epitomized the goal of Milwaukee’s defensive overhaul to this point in the season: Have a variety of approaches to defend opposing offenses, no matter what they throw at you. The Bucks may be able to stop anyone who’s sandwiched in the paint by Lopez and Antetokounmpo, but that’s not helpful if they’re raining triples before even reaching the paint. The Maginot Line was good, but it could be circumvented.&nbsp;

The overhaul impacts far more than just Antetokounmpo. Damian Lillard, Malik Beasley, Khris Middleton, and more were all switching onto screeners. The team had been using opportunistic blitzing, not just as a means of defanging a guard who’s already hot, but also as a preemptive wrench thrown into the spokes of oppositions’ plans.

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Bucks Blitzes

Similarly, under Griffin Milwaukee was running more than five zone possessions per game, far above last year’s 0.3 per game. The Bucks had been using zone defense more frequently than all but three other teams this year, and they were fourth in fewest points per chance allowed -- even lower when both of Lopez and Portis share the court. Those double- (and sometimes triple-, with Antetokounmpo,) big lineups were great options to force offenses into something new, to change the terms of engagement for a brief instant. Like blitzing, the purpose of a zone is to shift the terrain on which the game is played.&nbsp;

And for all that, in Milwaukee’s first game under interim head coach Joe Prunty, it found that less can be more. The Bucks still switched selectively, but defenders were tighter inside the lane, rotating shorter distances. They communicated -- which Rivers has discussed as a point of emphasis going forward. Lopez waited far inside the paint when defending screens, on- or off-ball. Though transition defense remained a work in progress, in the half court they mostly stayed within the arc and forced drivers into waiting thickets of arms. Milwaukee held the red-hot Cleveland Cavaliers -- who had been on an eight-game winning streak -- to 113.7 points per 100 possessions, far below Milwaukee’s season-long average of 117.8. Two nights later, the two teams rematched, and though Milwaukee lost it held Cleveland to an even less efficient scoring night -- 108.9 points per 100 possessions. Then it held the Pelicans to 109.1 per 100 possessions in a blowout win. Defensive rebounding has been better, and opposing drives have been down. Transition defense was night-and-day in those two latter games under Prunty.

Under Rivers, expect things to change once again. The theory behind defensive adaptability was sound, but it never worked out on the court. Last season, Milwaukee ranked fourth in defense. This year, it was down to 21st prior to Jan. 24. The last time a team ranked 20th or worse on defense won the championship was the Los Angeles Lakers in 2000-01, led by Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O’Neal. (And no team can count on ‘flipping the switch’ like those Lakers did.) The defense was a problem that the Bucks needed to solve, one way or another. Milwaukee was allowing the highest drive frequency of any defense in the league, meaning the point of attack -- which had been frequently lifted high above the arc for the Bucks’ defense -- wasn’t redirecting the ball. The Bucks were allowing more shots at the rim and fouling more than they had since 2017-18, before the Bucks were a championship contender. Defensive rebounding had waned.

Rivers will build on what Prunty has begun. He has long prioritized forcing teams away from the main action and into secondary sets. That means third or fourth options often get hot against Rivers-coached teams, but stars generally don’t beat him.&nbsp;

He has accomplished that in the past by shifting his defense towards the ‘strong’ side of the floor, where the ball is held. That deters drives and means when the ball does enter the arc, there is always help waiting. Indeed, last season -- Rivers’ last with the Sixers -- Philadelphia had a help defender present during opposing drives at the sixth-highest rate, at almost 80 percent frequency. The Sixers were a high-tag team last year, unlike the Bucks, ranking eighth in frequency of tagged pick and rolls. A partial result of such a focus on primary actions was the Sixers forcing a huge number of late-clock possessions, with opponents taking the third-highest frequency of long-midrange shots of any defense. And more than any team, such shots came from the extreme end of the clock, with possessions lasting 20 seconds or longer.&nbsp;

While Rivers’ teams have been aggressive in moving the opposing offense’s ball across the court, they have not been aggressive in ways that jeopardized the defensive shell. The Sixers didn’t concede mismatches easily last year, switching less frequently than the Bucks have this year. They almost never double-teamed isolations or post-ups.&nbsp;

What will all that mean for Milwaukee’s defense for the rest of the year?&nbsp;

The Bucks will likely keep their drop-and-over pick-and-roll scheme intact, as a thruline between Budenholzer and Griffin and now Rivers. It works with the current personnel, and perhaps Rivers will even slightly increase the frequency there. But they will likely no longer ask Lopez to wall off the paint on his own, bringing in help from the corners to force the possessions elsewhere. And drives will meet aggressive nail help. Expect opposing drive numbers to go down even further under Rivers, while 3-point attempts likely rise -- as Milwaukee sends more help, shooters will find a little more space for catch-and-shoot jumpers above the break. The team will surely stop picking up opposing ballhandlers so high above the arc and prioritize its shell much more. That should help increase rebounding and reduce fouling. There could be less doubling and switching.&nbsp;&nbsp;

But much should stay the same as well. It remains true that Milwaukee’s old single-mindedness of the past five years is no longer adapted to modern basketball, and heterogeneity will remain in the Bucks’ defensive approach. Antetokounmpo should remain a variable weapon, rather than a second big. Many of the lessons Griffin spent a half season learning will remain valuable to Rivers. But expect the defense to likely pare down and focus more on strengths, to fit better to the skills of its personnel.&nbsp;

Milwaukee’s offense is as sustainable and repeatable as it gets. Its offensive rating of 121.3 currently ranks second in history, higher than any mark prior to this season, and a huge jump from last season’s 115.4. There will be scoring droughts in the playoffs, as the NBA is a make-or-miss league, and there are always droughts. But Milwaukee’s bursts will be enormous. The Bucks have eight games this season scoring more than 140 points, which is already tied for the third-most in any season in league history. Milwaukee is on pace to set the record there (although so too are the Indiana Pacers this season, as they are tied at eight). The Bucks will have 40-point quarters in the playoffs, flurries of pull-up triples and dunks to stretch leads to 20 or close gaps in the blink of an eye. That’s what happened against the New York Knicks in the In-Season Tournament, as the Bucks used unique screening locations and pairings to build a double-digit lead in the early minutes of the third quarter to put the Knicks away.&nbsp;&nbsp;

With that in mind, the Bucks’ defense doesn’t have to hold opponents to fewer than 100 points every game in the playoffs. It only needs opportunistic stops to catalyze those scoring runs. And in past years, teams could plan to take advantage of Milwaukee’s playing drop-and-over. Despite its incredibly low points allowed in the regular season, it frequently allowed higher efficiency to offenses in the playoffs, particularly last season. And so far this season, Milwaukee’s defense might have done better at limiting pull-up shooting, but there were still too many ways to score. If Rivers addresses the defensive issues from this season while modernizing the approach from past seasons, that should be all the Bucks need.&nbsp;

The Bucks were slowly building a defense more capable of the bend-but-don’t-break dance of the postseason. It now falls on Rivers to complete that task. Milwaukee needs to translate theory into reality, and there’s still half a season left to do so. Time is ticking, but it’s clear what needs improvement and -- if early returns in a new, simpler system are to be believed -- what should get the job done.

inside-the-bucks-defensive-evolution

Inside the Bucks' Defensive Evolution

The date is November 3rd. The Milwaukee Bucks have been in a dog fight all night long against the New York Knicks, and they are down by two with just over a minute to go. So what do they do? They inbound the ball to Giannis Antetokounmpo above the break, and he dribbles towards the corner, where Damian Lillard is stationed. Lillard scampers away from him towards the rim before looping back out and curling around Antetokounmpo behind the arc. Antetokounmpo leaves the ball behind him, and in one motion Lillard gathers it, turns, and lofts it towards the rim. Ball game. The Bucks take the lead, get a stop, and go on to close the game out with free throws. 

Well -- they aren’t yet. But they should be.

Only 10 seasons have ever been recorded in which a player averaged at least 30 points, 10 rebounds, and 5 assists per game. The list is populated exclusively by Hall of Famers, like Wilt Chamberlain or Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, or surefire future Hall of Famers, like Antetokounmpo himself, who accomplished the feat last year. And right now, Antetokounmpo is at 31.2 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 5.9 assists per game to go along with 1.3 steals and 1.2 blocks -- which has never been done before. And of those 10 seasons, zero failed to result in All-Star selections. (Joel Embiid, also this season, is hitting those 30-10-5 benchmarks, and like Antetokounmpo is very deserving of the accolade.)&nbsp;

Similarly, there have only been 106 seasons recorded in which a player has averaged at least 25 points, 4 rebounds, and 6 assists per game. Of those, not including the players to do so this year, only four failed to result in an All-Star berth. Like Antetokounmpo, Lillard missing the All-Star game this season would be virtually unprecedented.&nbsp;

Beyond their statistical resumes, the two are mainstays of the game itself, both with seven attendances apiece -- tied for the 10th most among active players. Antetokounmpo hasn’t missed an All-Star game since 2017. The only game Lillard has missed since 2018 was in 2022 due to his aforementioned injury. The two even ranked first and second in points in the All-Star game in 2021.&nbsp;

There is precedence for superstars of this magnitude combining their talents -- but it is rare.

When the Miami Heat brought together LeBron James and Dwayne Wade in 2010-11, they went 9-8 to start the season before eventually finishing with 58 wins. Combining such talents takes time. That the Bucks are 26-12&nbsp; -- which is on pace for 56 wins -- so far shows the flexibility of their stars; however, make no mistake: like the Heat more than a decade before, these Bucks are only getting better as the season ages and their stars adapt to new circumstances.

Lillard and Antetokounmpo are not simply achieving separate success, with unique stat lines and interchangeable domination. More than that, they have fused together their games to create new forms and approaches beyond how either of them have played in years past.&nbsp;

Lillard’s 74 assists to Antetokounmpo ranks ninth among all NBA combos; neither was a member of such a highly ranked combo last year. Lillard to Jusuf Nurkic ranked 59th among all combos last year, while Jrue Holiday to Antetokounmpo ranked 25th. And with Lillard’s spacing and passing on the team, Antetokounmpo is finding more of his baskets created by his teammates. Last year, 42.9 percent of his field goals were assisted. This year, that has risen to 50.7 percent. With one of the game’s best guards now a teammate, Antetokounmpo’s ‘guard’ possessions are less frequent, running fewer picks and isolating less often, while his ‘big’ possessions are up, setting more screens. His post game has never been sharper, setting a career high in efficiency and ranking fifth in the league among players with at least 40 post-ups.&nbsp;

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Giannis Antetokounmpo post-ups

At the same time, Lillard has embraced his off-ball game to greater impact alongside the most dominant interior scorer since Shaquille O’Neal. He’s averaging his fewest touches per 100 possessions of his career, while also averaging the highest points per chance on a touch. And he’s also been terrific without the ball in his hands; an off-ball cut from Lillard is more efficient this year than any other of his career. Among all players with 200 or more off-screen cuts, Lillard ranks 13th in points per chance on such plays. And they are even more efficient when it’s Lillard’s co-star, Antetokounmpo, setting the screen.&nbsp;

A simple pindown set by Antetokounmpo is a deadly means of weaponizing both players’ skill-sets.&nbsp;

lillard-antetokounmpo-pindowns

Lillard-Antetokounmpo pindowns

Both players are adding to their games to make the partnership work. There is plenty of natural synergy between a pull-up-threat guard and finishing big, which was clear before they even took the court together, but adaptations still require effort. And both players&nbsp; -- as well as every other member of the Bucks -- have been putting in the work to catalyze the required changes.&nbsp;

That’s laudable, considering the amount of success they’ve both garnered separately. But it’s also frightening that the Bucks have managed to stay atop the Eastern Conference despite their leaders being in the midst of learning and changing.&nbsp;

And of course, the things that they already did well remain brilliant. Last season, Lillard was the most efficient pick-and-roll orchestrator in the league among 151 players to have run at least 300. This year he is 13th, although he has been climbing in recent weeks and as efficient since the start of December as he was last year.&nbsp;

Last year, Antetokounmpo finished 15th in efficiency on drives among 137 players to have driven the ball at least 300 times. This year he has risen to sixth. He shot 71.5 percent from within five feet on by far the most attempts in the league. This year he’s up to 76.2 percent on over 100 attempts more than the player who ranks second in attempts from within five feet.

And direct interactions between the two have been shooting up the efficiency standings. Buoyed by their incredible output in the In-Season Tournament knockout games, they have now risen to seventh in average efficiency among high-volume pick-and-roll duos (those with at least 200 run together). They’re also 10th in average handoff efficiency among high-volume duos (those with at least 50 run together). When they work together, the Bucks succeed.

Lillard and Antetokoumpo are thriving together and separately, succeeding in areas they already mastered and in new ones.&nbsp;

All signs point to Lillard and Antetokounmpo continuing together the All-Star streaks that they began separately. It’s actually relatively common for one team to roster multiple All Stars -- particularly for the Bucks. Milwaukee has rostered two All Stars in four of the last five seasons.&nbsp;

Over the last five seasons, 27 teams have rostered at least two players who played in that year’s All-Star game, with two of them rostering three. That averages to mean approximately five teams, each year, will have multiple All Stars. Of course, those teams usually win lots of games. Their average winning percentage is 64.5 percent -- below Milwaukee’s current rate of 68.4 percent.&nbsp;

Milwaukee has the profile of a team that sends two (or more) players to the All-Star game. And its stars, Lillard and Antetokounmpo have historically not only gone to the game but dominated it. Furthermore, their play this season has been deserving of All-Star nods, both as separate engines and as a complementary duo. (Actually, they’ve been deserving of All-NBA nods -- but we’ll save that conversation for another time.)&nbsp;

All the evidence points in one direction: Send Lillard and Antetokounmpo to the All-Star game. What they began separately, now they continue together. It’s where their union began, as teammates for the first time in 2018. And it’s where their partnership ought to lead.

why-lillard-and-antetokounmpo-should-be-all-star-starters

Why Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard Should be All-Star Starters

Leonard Cohen and Bob Dylan were long-time friends. In the 1980s, the two met for coffee after Cohen went to see Dylan play in Paris. Dylan asked Cohen how long it took to write Hallelujah. He said two years, embarrassed by the fact it actually took him five. Then Cohen asked Dylan how long it took him to write I and I. Fifteen minutes, Dylan said. If Cohen exemplifies fastidious intentionality then Dylan is improvisational carelessness.&nbsp;

Both approaches have their counterparts during the long grind of the NBA season. In the regular season, teams have too many games and flights (and too few practices) to worry excessively about the next opponent. There are scouting reports and gameplans of course, but the brunt of the focus is on oneself rather than the upcoming opponent. It’s not carelessness as much as the simple necessity of prioritization. The playoffs, though, see NBA teams spend so much time on every nuance of the upcoming opponent that the game itself can look very different. If you added together all the time scouts and coaches spent preparing for a series, it might well end up looking like the five years required for Hallelujah.&nbsp;

The knockout portion of the in-season tournament (IST) constituted a brilliant midway point between the two approaches. It wasn't the playoffs, but teams gave the games much more attention than ordinary regular-season contests. And for the Milwaukee Bucks, their two IST knockout games gave a variety of lessons into what types of focuses will work if the team reaches the playoffs, how opponents will prepare for them, and what still needs improvement over the remainder of the season.&nbsp;

Against the New York Knicks, the Bucks had a series of clear goals coming into the game. Establish the pick and roll on the offensive end, particularly with Damian Lillard running it. And funnel the Knicks into Brook Lopez in the paint. Those are exceptionally general goals -- ones the Bucks have in virtually every game. But the means by which Milwaukee achieved them became increasingly more granular as the game aged and both coaches continued responding to the others’ tweaks.&nbsp;

features

First Round Series Preview: Bucks vs. Pacers

Adapting to Change: A Midseason Recap

The Patrick Beverley Effect

Inside the Bucks' Defensive Evolution

Why Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard Should be All-Star Starters

Breaking down the adjustments and lessons from Milwaukee's In-Season Tournament

Beasley, Beauchamp, and Jackson Offer Identity and Flexibility to Milwaukee

What Dame Time means for Bucks Fans