NBA Draft

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Casey Holdahl

Greetings from both North and Southwest Portland. With the Trail Blazers coming away from the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery with the seventh and 14th picks, your humble podcast crew of Brooke Olzendam and I, Casey Holdahl, had plenty to discuss on the 122nd edition of The Blazers Balcony podcast, which you can listen/subscribe to below...

• The Trail Blazers coming away from the Draft Lottery with the seventh and 14th picks

• How the level of talent in this year's draft might open up possibilities for the Trail Blazers&nbsp;

• The importance of not only knowing what players you like, but what players other teams like

• Best Player Available meets Position of Need

• Whether the Blazers are likely to add four rookies -- they also own the 34th and 40th picks -- to a team that is already rather young

• The wide-open nature of the second round of the 2024 NBA Playoffs

• What makes good lemonade, cynical facial recognition, calling the cops on your neighbors and fear of exploding Fresca 

You can subscribe to the Blazers Balcony on Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, Youtube, Stitcher, TuneIn, Deezer, Spotify, I Heart Radio,  Pocket Casts and Pandora. 

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Post-Lottery On The Blazers Balcony, Episode 122

The 2024 NBA Draft Lottery might not have gone exactly way the Trail Blazers would have preferred, though there's still plenty of cause for optimism with the seventh, 14th, 34th and 40th picks at their disposal. With no clear-cut consensus, even at the very top of the 2024 Draft, having multiple picks in the lottery gives Joe Cronin and his staff just about every option, from selecting best player available, drafting for need and/or using the picks as assets in trades. In more well-regarded drafts, you'd always want to have the highest picks possible, but in THIS draft, it's very plausible, maybe even likely, that teams will be able to get players they feel are the best options for their teams further down the lottery.

Want proof of that notion? Then check out the first round of mock drafts posted after the draft order was locked in at the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery. For example, the ESPN mock draft has French forward Zaccharie Risacher going to the Wizards with the second overall pick, while multiple other mock drafts have Risacher available when Portland is on the clock for the seventh pick. Same idea with UCONN center Donovan Clingan, who Kevin O'Connor at The Ringer has going to Washington at two, but Jonathan Wasserman at The Bleacher Report has going to Portland at seven. It's still early in the process, but I've been putting these posts together for going on 20 years and I can't ever remember that much variance in the Top 10.

So here's the first crack at mocking the draft by those who follow it the closest...

• Jon Givony and Jeremy Woo at ESPN have the Trail Blazers selecting 18 year old Serbian point guard Nikola Topic with the seventh overall pick...

The Blazers aren't far enough along in their rebuild to worry too much about positional fit, and Topic's combination of size and playmaking ability differentiates his skill set from the guards they already have on the roster. Portland can take a swing on the best available talent here, envisioning Topic as part of a multi-playmaker attack alongside&nbsp;Scoot Henderson,&nbsp;Shaedon Sharpe&nbsp;and&nbsp;Anfernee Simons. At this spot in the draft, Topic is an intriguing bet, with his feel and passing ability likely to help enhance opportunities for others around him.

And with the 14th pick, the folks at ESPN have the Trail Blazers selecting another 18 year old European, French forward Tidjane Salaun...

Salaun would be another intriguing addition to Portland's frontcourt, helping to balance out a guard-heavy roster. His potential to space the floor, supply energy and versatility, and that he doesn't need designed touches, makes him an interesting fit with the future in mind. Salaun is still raw in important areas of his game -- he'll need seasoning and time to reach his potential -- but he should be an appealing project if he can make strides as a shooter and decision-maker.

• Krysten Peek at Yahoo! Sports has the Trail Blazers selecting guard/forward Ron Holland of now-defunct G League Ignite at seven...

Holland was a high-volume scorer on a struggling Ignite team, but teams might look past his score-first instincts with the lack of playmakers on the team this year. He's one of the best defensive forwards in this class, averaging 2.3 steals per game.

And at 14, Peek has Portland selecting Yves Missi, a freshman center out of Baylor...

Missi's combination of size, rim protection and great hands could see him sneak into the lottery during the pre-draft process while working out individually for teams. He averaged 10.7 points and 5.6 rebounds in 23 minutes for Baylor during his freshman year.

• Kevin O'Connor at The Ringer has Portland selecting 19 year old French forward Zaccharie Risacher with their first pick of the first round...

Scoot Henderson’s strong close to the season should make the Blazers feel optimistic heading into the summer. Now the priority is about finding the right fit next to their young point guard, which is why Risacher is the choice here with his flashes of shot-making as a high-end role player who could flourish with a smaller playmaking guard.

And with their second pick of the first round,  O'Connor has the Trail Blazers taking Ja'Kobe Walker, a 6-5 freshman guard out of Baylor...

With their second lottery pick, the Blazers could roll with a player like Walter, who&nbsp; was projected far higher by some evaluators (including myself) ahead of the college season. Walter didn’t meet expectations but still flashed enticing scoring upside that could be a great fit next to Henderson, Risacher, and Sharpe.

• Sam Vecenie at The Athletic has Portland selecting Dalton Knecht, a 6-6 senior guard/forward out of Tennessee...

Knecht scored at a dizzying pace, averaging 25.5 points in 18 SEC games while shooting 48.4 percent from the field and 42.4 percent from 3. Overall, he averaged 21.7 points per game on 46 percent from the field, but those stats are dragged down by a stretch during which he played at less than 100 percent following an ankle injury against&nbsp;North Carolina.

Great college players aren’t always great NBA players, but the style of Knecht’s game makes him a likely lottery pick. Everything he does offensively should translate to NBA settings. Not only is he a terrific shooter, proficient in spot-up situations and off movement, but he’s also a higher-end athlete than most floor spacers. He can sky in transition and finish inside with hang time. He simply has a knack for scoring.

The draft gets a bit wild here. I’m not sure any of the remaining top prospects included in the 7-10 range in the NBA’s memo outlining medical information access make a ton of sense for the Blazers. Knecht can knock down shots at a high level next to&nbsp;Scoot Henderson&nbsp;and&nbsp;Shaedon Sharpe&nbsp;long term, which would be very valuable.

And at 14, Vecenie has the Trail Blazers going with French forward Tidjane Salaun out of Cholet...

Salaun is a big forward with some perimeter skill. The 6-9 prospect has been productive in the French League and Basketball Champions League this season, averaging 9.5 points and 3.8 rebounds while shooting 32 percent from behind the 3-point line. He has a smooth stroke and also shows some upside handling the ball in transition.

Teams worry about Salaun’s feel for the game and overall skill level, but he’s enormous, plays hard and defends. I get the sense that team evaluators are higher on him than folks in the public. The Blazers love to take shots on upside, as shown by their run of picks under Joe Cronin’s front office, and Salaun would represent a big swing.

• Kyle Boone at CBS Sports has Portland selecting Reed Shepard, a freshman guard out of Kentucky, with the seventh pick...

Portland lands the best shooter in the draft to pair with No. 3 overall pick Scoot Henderson from last year. Sheppard hit 52.1% of his 3-pointers last season as a frosh at Kentucky and adds dynamism as both a playmaking defender and passer as well.

At 14, Boone has the Trail Blazers selecting Kyle Filipowski, a sophomore center out of Duke...

First Portland adds shooting in Reed Sheppard now it adds size + shooting in Filipowski, a 7-footer with real talent as a floor-spacer and offensive hub. He was vital to Duke's success the last two seasons and had a career year last season as a dynamic big who can do a little of everything.

• Jonathan Wasserman at Bleacher Report has Portland selecting Donovan Clingan, a sophomore center out of UCONN, with the seventh overall pick...

Portland Trail Blazers won't be able to resist Donovan Clingan's defensive upside for their interior, despite Deandre Ayton finishing the year strong.

With his exceptional pick-and-roll defense and outstanding rim protection, coupled with his towering 7'2" size and great mobility, he's a good fit for Portland's young guards as he would provide them with a reliable target for easy baskets.

Despite only attempting eight three-pointers this season, he always appears comfortable and confident during warm-ups. Displaying his range during workouts could convince one of the top-five drafting teams to consider him early.

Seven spots latter, Wasserman has Portland taking Ja'Kobe Walter out of Baylor...

After struggling during the Big 12 tournament, Ja'Kobe Walter scored 19 and 20 points against Colgate and Clemson, respectively, in the NCAAs. He showed exactly what the scouting report read all season: Catch-and-shoot shotmaking, physical line-driving and limited creativity off the dribble.

In 35 games, he had 75 threes, 145 made free throws and just 50 assists—numbers that clearly reflect his strengths and weaknesses.

Walter figures to interest late-lottery to mid-first-round teams that could use more wing depth and see a three-and-D rotation player.

• Kyle Irving at The Sporting News has Portland selecting Zaccharie Risacher with the seventh overall pick...

The Trail Blazers are rebuilding around a young core of Scoot Henderson, Anfernee Simons, Shaedon Sharpe and Deandre Ayton. They have a surplus of explosive guards but could use a floor-spacing perimeter shooter. That's why Risacher is worth a roll of the dice.

Risacher caught fire from beyond the arc at the start of the season for JL Bourg but has since cooled off. He is still shooting a respectable 34.9 percent from 3 through 31 LNB Pro A games, but that's down a full 10 percentage points from his hot start. Averaging 10.1 points as a teenager in one of the best leagues in the world is still no easy feat. He has become one of the more polarizing players in this class but his potential is undeniable.

With the 14th pick, Irving has Portland going with Jared McCain, a freshman guard out of Duke...

More shooting for Portland. After going with Risacher at No. 4 in this mock, the Trail Blazers could add another combo guard to their rotation in McCain.

McCain fits a need as a connective playmaker with a 3-and-D skill set that should seamlessly translate to the NBA. Even though he is only a 20-year-old freshman, McCain plays with poise and confidence that is beyond his age.

His two 30-point explosions in the NCAA Tournament launched him into lottery consideration.

• Ricky O'Donnell at SBNation has Portland selecting Donovan Clingan with the seventh pick...

Clingan tied together UConn’s back-to-back national championship teams with his monster combination of size and rim protection. At 7’2 with a reported 7’7 wingspan, Clingan will be among the biggest players in the NBA from the day he’s drafted. He has an easy translation as a shot-blocking center in drop coverage who will put a lid on the rim. Clingan showed a bit more quickness and coverage versatility defensively as a sophomore, and his starring role against Zach Edey in the national championship game now has some thinking he could be a candidate for No. 1 overall. We still have a few concerns. Clingan only played 49 percent of available minutes for UConn all season, and topped 30 minutes in a game just four times as a sophomore. How often can he stay on the floor? Clingan is also only a 55.8 percent free throw shooter and a total non-threat from three. His interior finishing is good-not-great because he isn’t an explosive leaper. His best offensive skill set is his passing, where he can used as a hub for dribble-handoffs, and has an ability to hit cutters. Mostly, a team would be drafting Clingan for his defense and shot-blocking, and it could still return top value in a weaker draft.

And at 14, O'Donnell has the Trail Blazers going with another big, Tidjane Saluan out of France...

Salaum offers the promise of a supersized dribble/pass/shoot forward who is still just scratching the surface of what he could one day become. At the moment, Salaum still has a long way to go: his feel for the game is still developing to put it kindly, he struggles to score inside the arc, and his three-point shot runs cold more than hot. On the other hand, there’s no discounting Salaun’s tools: he’s massive for a forward at 6’9 with a 7’2 wingspan, he’s money from the free throw line (79 percent), and he doesn’t turn 19 until Aug. He needs to be thought of as a long-term developmental prospect, but his ceiling is high enough to get someone to bite inside the top-20.

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2024 Mock Draft Roundup: Plenty Of Options At 7 and 14

The Portland Trail Blazers will have to make their own luck at the 2024 NBA Draft.

Despite having the fourth-best odds at the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery, held Sunday afternoon in Chicago, the Trail Blazers ended up with the the seventh overall pick in the upcoming Draft. The eighth overall pick was the worst pick Portland could have ended up with, so it could have been worse, though not by much.

Both the San Antonio Spurs, who ended up with the fourth pick, and the Atlanta Hawks, who came away with the top overall pick, jumped the Trail Blazers to overperform their odds. Portland also came away from the Draft Lottery with the 14th pick via the Golden State Warriors, with the Trail Blazers acquired as a part of the trade that sent Damian Lillard to Milwaukee.

“We feel great,” said Trail Blazers general manager Joe Cronin. “To have two picks in the lottery is a great opportunity for us to add potentially two guys that will make a big difference on our team, so we’re excited.”

The complete lottery order is as follows…

The Trail Blazers also own the 34th and 40th picks in the second round.

The 2024 NBA Draft will be a two-day event this year, with the first round taking place on June 26 and the second the next day on June 27. Both rounds will air on ESPN.

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Trail Blazers Come Away with the 7th, 14th Picks At 2024 NBA Draft Lottery

On May 12 in Chicago, the NBA will hold the 2024 Draft Lottery, in which a hopper filled with numbered ping-pong balls will play a large part in determining the future of the franchises vying for a pick in the top four. And with potentially two picks in the lottery and two in the second round, the Draft Lottery serves as one of the best ways this offseason for the Trail Blazers to improve their fortunes, both next season and beyond.

This is the third-consecutive year and tenth in franchise history that the Trail Blazers find themselves hoping that the right numbered balls come up in the right order. Last year, Brandon Roy, who was the Trail Blazers representative the last time they won the Draft Lottery in 2007, returned to that role and, though he wasn’t able to bring home the top overall pick again, did have enough juice to come away with the third overall pick, which the team used to select Scoot Henderson. Portland didn’t buck their odds in 2023 -- they had a 10.5 percent chance of getting each of the top four picks -- but they didn’t underperform their odds either, which qualifies as a victory.

More broadly, the Trail Blazers have participated in the Draft Lottery nine times -- 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2012, 2013, 2022 and 2023 -- and have come away with the first, third (twice), fourth, seventh, 10th, 11th and 13th (twice) picks. They have outperformed their odds thrice -- in 2005 when they got the third overall pick while having the fourth-best odds, when they won the Lottery in 2007 and in 2023 when they got the third pick with the fifth-best odds -- and underperformed their Lottery odds twice -- in 2006, when they had the best odds yet ended up with the third overall pick and in 2022 in which they had the sixth-best odds but finished with the seventh pick, which they used to select Shaedon Sharpe. And in four years -- 2004, 2008, 2012 and 2013 -- the Blazers came away from the Lottery with the exact pick their odds predicted.

So with the history out of the way, let’s get to the present, or at least the near future.

The Trail Blazers, by finishing tied with the Charlotte Hornets for the third-worst record in the NBA this season, have a 13.2 percent chance of getting the top overall pick and a 50 percent chance of getting a top four pick. On the flip side, they have a 6.8 percent chance of getting the fifth pick, a 24.6 percent chance of getting the sixth pick, a 16.4 percent chance of getting the 7th pick and a 2.2 percent chance of getting the eighth pick, which is the lowest they can go.

One thing that is always important to remember about the Draft Lottery is that it only defines the top four picks. As in, the Draft Lottery is held to determine the order of the top four picks, then the rest of the order is set by record. So if a team bucks their odds, the rest of the teams shift one spot worse.

And this year it’s especially important to remember that, due to the unfortunate fact that the Trail Blazers lost the tiebreaker with the Hornets, which affects Portland’s pick in two ways. First, it gives the Hornets a 0.1 percent better chance of getting each of the top four picks, which isn’t much, but you’d still rather have the better odds. But more importantly, losing the tiebreaker means the Hornets are the third team. So for example, if a team, let’s say Memphis with the seventh-best odds, jumps over the Pistons, Wizards, Hornets and Blazers and is the only team to buck the odds to get a top four pick, the Blazers would end up with the fifth pick while the Hornets get the fourth pick (because again, the Draft Lottery only defines the top four picks, which then in turn sets the order for the rest of the teams in the Lottery).

So you don’t want to hear one of the teams above the Trail Blazers called early in the Draft Lottery, as that would mean a team with worse odds ended up with a top four pick, which would mean a worse pick for the Trail Blazers. But if it goes chalk until the top four, you obviously want a team above the Blazers to get called before the Blazers.

Also, there’s the issue of the Golden State Warriors’ first round pick. The Trail Blazers, as part of the trade that sent Damian Lillard to Milwaukee, own Golden State’s first-round pick as long as it doesn’t end up in the top four. The Warriors ended up as the last Lottery team, giving them a 0.7 percent chance of landing the top pick and a 3.4 percent chance of landing a top four pick, so it’s incredibly likely the Trail Blazers will end up with their pick. And you’ll know right away, as if the first team called is NOT the Warriors, that means they jumped into the top four, which means the Blazers would NOT get that pick.

As for second-round picks, we know that the Blazers will have the 40th pick from the Atlanta Hawks. But their first pick in the second round will be defined by where they end up in the Lottery. If the Hornets end up with a better first-round pick than the Blazers, Portland ends up with the 33rd pick (or the third of the second round) which they then send to Milwaukee. And in that scenario, the Hornets would then send the 34th pick to the Blazers.

So if the odds hold, the Trail Blazers will end up with the fourth, 14th, 34th and 40th picks in the 2024 NBA Draft. According to the folks at Tankathon, that combination gives the Trail Blazers the top spot in their Draft Power Rankings, which they base off of “assigning a value to every pick in the draft and ranks teams based on the sum of their pick values. Data from previous draft picks' performance, playing time, and salaries are factored into a pick's score.” Portland’s 2024 Draft value, at least before the Lottery, is listed as 144.71 followed by the Raptors, owners of the sixth, 19th and 31st picks, at 116.67, the Wizards, owners of the second, 26th and 51st picks, at 114.27 and the Pistons, owners of the first and 53rd picks, at 100.79. Again, that all assumes the Lottery plays out exactly as the odds predict.

The NBA Draft Lottery is scheduled to be held on Sunday, May 12 at 5:30 p.m. on ESPN.

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Blazers Take Top Spot In Draft Rankings Prior To The Lottery With Four Picks

The Exit Interview editions of The Brief Case continue with Toumani Camara and Dalano Banton, the last batch of players before we finish off the series with later this week with Chauncey Billups and Joe Cronin. Give it a listen if you haven't already...

Topics on this, the 93rd edition, include...

• The latest from the first round of the 2024 NBA Playoffs

• The recent breaking of ties as it pertains to the NBA Draft Lottery and what it could mean for the Trail Blazers

• Toumani Camara discussing his thoughts on his rookie season, having his season ended by a rib injury, which ended his goal of playing in all 82 games this season, part of his game he’s looking to improve this offseason, his offseason schedule, including whether he’s going to play at the Las Vegas Summer League, living in Portland, the competition or lack thereof amongst Portland’s forwards, making plays with effort and being one of the few players to make the NBA out of Belgium

• Dalano Banton discussing his first few months with the Trail Blazers, the culture the Trail Blazers are trying to instill, thoughts on Scoot Henderson and the importance of opportunity for young players

You can subscribe to the Brief Case on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Youtube, IHeartRadio, Amazon Music, TuneIn, Podcast Addict, Podchaser, Pocket Casts, Deezer, PlayerFM.

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Draft Tiebreakers And More Exit Interviews On The Brief Case, Episode 93

Portland Trail Blazers

Hear from the newest Trail Blazers as they were introduced at the team's Practice Facility on Saturday.

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Rookie Press Conference | Scoot Henderson, Kris Murray and Rayan Rupert | Portland Trail Blazers

After an exciting 2023 Draft that saw the Trail Blazers come away with Scoot Henderson, Kris Murray and Rayan Rupert, the time was right to record the 45th edition of The Brief Case, which you can listen/subscribe to below...

• The Trail Blazers selecting Scoot Henderson, Kris Murray and Rayan Rupert at the 2023 NBA Draft• How Portland's 2023 Draft goes down as one of their best in years• The Trail Blazers' just announced 2023 Las Vegas Summer League schedule and the featured matchups• Trail Blazers GM Joe Cronin's post-draft press conference and his explanation of how they are still trying to put a winning roster around Damian Lillard

You can subscribe to the Brief Case on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, IHeartRadio, Amazon Music, TuneIn, Podcast Addict, Podchaser, Pocket Casts, Deezer, PlayerFM. Talk again next week!

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The Draft Goes From Good To Great On The Brief Case

Joe Cronin discusses Portland's Draft on Thursday night.

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General Manager Joe Cronin Press Conference | 2023 NBA Draft

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Moda Health

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