The phrases “biggest game of the season” and “must-win game” are sometimes exaggerated and overused during the NBA’s lengthy 82-game schedule, but New Orleans’ Monday home matchup vs. Phoenix (7 p.m., Bally Sports, NBA TV, WRNO 99.5 FM) fits the first of those descriptions very well, if not the second. The Pelicans (45-29, sixth place) have a chance to add to a multi-game lead for a top-six seed in the Western Conference with a victory over the Suns (43-31, tied with Sacramento for seventh), but a defeat would mean their breathing room has almost entirely evaporated. On the other side, it’s a golden opportunity for Phoenix to barge its way into full-fledged contention for a playoff berth; all teams want to avoid what figures to be a treacherous West play-in tournament for its four participants.
There are numerous other West matchups over the final two weeks of the regular season that could bring monumental stakes (Phoenix plays the Clippers on back-to-back nights next week; Sacramento hosts Phoenix on April 12, one night after the Kings host the Pelicans), but Monday’s Pelicans-Suns matchup is near the top of the list for meaningful postseason-race ramifications.
Naji Marshall talks catch and shoot threes, game against Phoenix | Pelicans-Suns Shootaround 4/1/24
Notes from shootaround:
New Orleans ranks ninth in the NBA in forcing turnovers and third in steals per game (8.2), a defensive strength that on paper presents a major challenge for Phoenix (25th in turnovers per game, only ahead of five teams already eliminated from playoff contention).
“I think we’ve been in the right spots, together as one on the defensive end, so it makes it kind of easy,” Pelicans forward Naji Marshall said this morning of his team’s effectiveness in causing opponent mistakes. New Orleans had almost exactly the same steals average last season (8.3), good for second in the NBA. During Herb Jones’ rookie season of 2021-22, the Pelicans were seventh (8.3).
Marshall on Phoenix having lost its previous game by 25 points at Oklahoma City: “Definitely dangerous. Coming off a loss, so they’re probably going to play a little bit harder. It’s on us to compete and bring the energy.”
Phoenix Scouting Report
Offensive efficiency rank: 9 (117.1)
Defensive efficiency rank: 13 (114.4)
Net rating rank: 10 (+2.7)
Streak: Lost 1
Go-to guy: The plan entering 2023-24 was to have three “go-to guys,” but Bradley Beal has only played in 45 of the team’s 74 games, while Kevin Durant and Devin Booker have been sidelined for seven and 14 contests, respectively. Durant (27.6 ppg) has a slight edge over Booker (27.0) as Phoenix’s leading scorer, doing so in his usual highly-efficient fashion, with shooting splits of 53/43/85. Booker rang up 52 points at New Orleans in Phoenix’s 123-109 victory on Jan. 19.
On the rise: First-year Suns player Grayson Allen leads the NBA in three-point percentage (47.0) among those who’ve made at least 100 treys this season, serving as a dangerous release valve for Phoenix’s All-Star offensive weapons. Allen shot 3/6 from beyond the arc Jan. 19, scoring 12 points against the Pelicans.
Previous Game Starting Lineups
PHOENIX (43-31, 8TH IN WEST)
Friday loss at Oklahoma City
Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, Grayson Allen, Kevin Durant, Jusuf Nurkic
Notes: This combination is 18-11, by far Frank Vogel’s most common among 20 different first units he’s used this season. A separate lineup is 7-2 with Eric Gordon starting instead of Beal. … Phoenix is 37-23 when Booker plays, but 6-8 in other games. The Suns are 27-18 when Beal plays, but 16-13 in other games. … Phoenix has the same record as seventh-place Sacramento (43-31), but the Kings hold the tiebreaking advantage based on Pacific Division record. The season series is tied 2-2, with an April 12 game remaining in Sacramento.
NEW ORLEANS (45-29, 6TH IN WEST)
Saturday loss vs. Boston
CJ McCollum, Herb Jones, Trey Murphy, Zion Williamson, Jonas Valanciunas
Notes: This combination is 4-3, tied for the second-most common lineup among 15 different first units used by Willie Green this season. The Pelicans’ primary starting group is 25-15. … Brandon Ingram (knee) and Jose Alvarado (oblique) are out for Monday’s game. … New Orleans is 38-20 when McCollum plays, but 7-9 in other games. The Pelicans are 34-17 when Alvarado plays, but 11-12 in other games. … New Orleans must go 2-0 vs. Phoenix this week to earn the tiebreaking advantage. If the Suns win at least once, they will wrap up the head-to-head record edge.
FanDuel Keys to the Game
SEIZE THE MOMENT
In terms of the chase for a top-six seed and the playoff berth that comes with it, Game 75 is the most important game New Orleans has played so far in 2023-24. By no means are the Pelicans’ hopes to reach that objective dashed with a loss, but Monday is the difference between holding a bit of a cushion, compared to having a tiny margin for error over the final two weeks of the regular season.
MAKE THEM UNCOMFORTABLE
Playing without a true point guard, Phoenix has been turnover-prone at times this season and ranks sixth-worst in the NBA in that category (average of 14.9 per game). Every team below the Suns in the statistic is headed to the mid-May draft lottery. However, Phoenix only committed 10 turnovers in its Jan. 19 victory in the Blender, while shooting 49.5 percent from the field.
MATCHUP TO WATCH
New Orleans’ fourth-ranked defense will try to contain Phoenix’s ninth-ranked offense, which was powered by 52 points from Booker on Jan. 19, as well as 26 by Durant. Those two – along with Beal – combined to shoot 35/61 from the field in a 14-point win. The Pelicans will need to be much better than that Monday against the Suns’ prolific trio.