Throughout the 2019 offseason, several teams in the Western Conference made drastic changes to their rosters in hopes of securing enough star talent to compete for an NBA championship. From Paul George and Kawhi Leonard joining the LA Clippers to the Los Angeles Lakers trading for Anthony Davis, teams were stocking up star talent left and right as the conference appears to be up for grabs in 2019-20. Did you notice that the Rockets trading for Russell Westbrook wasn’t even mentioned yet? That’s how crazy things got this summer.
For the Denver Nuggets, the main addition comes in the form of Jerami Grant in a trade that didn’t break Twitter or interrupt SportsCenter. Grant joins Denver after a career year with the Oklahoma City Thunder in which he averaged 13.6 points and 5.2 rebounds per game while he connected on 39.2 percent of his 3-pointers.
READ MORE: What Grant brings to the Nuggets
The majority of Grant’s value comes on the defensive end. The 25-year-old stands in at 6’9” with a 7’3” wingspan, which allows him to guard a variety of positions on the perimeter and in the frontcourt. Grant averaged 0.8 steals and 1.3 blocks per game last season and posted strong defensive metrics (+0.9 defensive box plus-minus and +0.86 defensive real plus-minus). Meanwhile, Oklahoma City’s defense improved by 1.6 points per 100 possessions when Grant was on the floor.
However, most of the discussion surrounding Grant’s fit with the Nuggets has focused on the defensive end of the floor. In this week’s film study, let’s take a look at Grant’s offensive game and how he can thrive in Denver’s offense.
3-point shooting
The number that catches the eye when looking at Grant’s numbers is that aforementioned 39.2 percent from beyond the arc during the 2018-19 season. It’s also important to note that Grant increased his attempts to 3.7 per game (his previous high was 2.4 during his rookie season).
Digging deeper into Grant’s shooting numbers provides reason for optimism and skepticism. 51.5 percent of his total 3-point attempts came from the corners last season, and the former second-round pick knocked those down at 39.7 percent. Grant also shot 39.7 percent on catch-and-shoot threes and 41.8 percent on wide-open (no defender within six feet) threes. All of those numbers are very impressive and encouraging given the number of quality looks he should receive in the Nuggets’ offense.
However, Grant has a shaky history when it comes to 3-point shooting. In the 2017-18 season, Grant shot just 29.1 percent from deep and is a career 33.4 percent 3-point shooter. Grant’s slow release limits him from taking contested or off-the-dribble 3-pointers. As a result, it’s not a surprise that 99 percent of his 3-pointers were assisted last season.
However, given that Grant will be playing in Denver’s free-flowing offense that emphasizes passing and ball movement, Grant’s limited shooting shouldn’t pose a problem. If Grant’s development as a shooter continues as he enters his prime, he will become even more of a threat from beyond the arc.
Strong finishing around the rim
Last season, Grant’s shot chart continued to evolve into a more modern distribution of shot attempts. Grant attempted 81 percent of his shots from three or at the rim last season, according to Cleaning the Glass (which filters out garbage time and end-of-quarter heaves).
Given Grant’s emphasis on threes and shots at the rim, it should excite Nuggets fans to learn that he is an elite finisher around the basket. Last season, Grant shot 67.9 percent from within three feet of the rim, which was actually slightly down from 68.5 percent in the 2017-18 campaign.
Although Grant is certainly able to get up for dunks, that isn’t the only way he can finish inside the paint. Grant showcased some impressive touch and ability to adjust his shot attempt on the fly when he drove to the paint last season. In the clip below, Grant gets the ball as the roll man and has to adjust his body to hit a floating layup with his right hand while he is falling to the left.
In this next clip, Grant is able to absorb the initial contact and still get his shot off, using soft touch to get it to drop.
While Grant will certainly make highlight reels next season with impressive alley-oop finishes and poster-worthy dunks, he can use his nice touch and ability to adjust his body on the fly for some even more impressive finishes around the rim.
Running in transition
Another area where Grant can inject some much-needed athleticism and speed is in transition. Last season, Grant thrived when he ran the floor after an opponent’s miss or turnover, as he would run towards the hoop for a lob pass or would be ready for a catch-and-shoot 3-pointer.
Now, Grant is coming from the Thunder, a team that emphasized playing at a fast pace and scoring in transition. Last season, Oklahoma City finished sixth in the league in pace and second in the league in the frequency of transition play (i.e. how many possessions started with a transition play).
Denver was on the other end of the spectrum when it came to pace. The Nuggets finished 26th in the league in pace and were just an average team in transition, as they finished 12th in transition frequency and 20th in points added per 100 possessions in transition.
Given that Grant will likely start the season in a bench role, perhaps he can inject enough pace and athleticism into the reserve units to increase Denver’s pace. A higher pace coupled with the altitude would make Denver’s homecourt advantage even stronger than it was last season.
Passing and playmaking
Grant’s numbers give the impression that he isn’t a very adept passer. The 25-year-old forward averaged one assist per game last season and had an assist percentage of just 4.2 percent, which was tied for the lowest of his career.
However, a look beneath the surface shows that while Grant won’t be making anyone’s jaw drop with his passing ability, he is certainly capable of making the right reads and delivering an accurate pass to a teammate.
Consider the fact that Oklahoma City’s offense was set up to emphasize Westbrook and George’s scoring brilliance last season. The Thunder finished second in the league in the frequency of isolations and were dead last in passes made per game (242.4).
Denver’s offense couldn’t be more different. The Nuggets ranked 25th in the league in the frequency of isolations and were fifth in the league in passes per game (312.5). The structure of Denver’s free-flowing offense encourages players to not hold the ball and ensures that the ball keeps moving.
As a result, Grant should receive more opportunities to make plays for others next season, which he was able to showcase at times during the 2018-19 campaign.
In the clip below, he receives the ball as the roll man and is able to find the open shooter in the corner. Given Grant’s projected role as the backup power forward (and center on rare occasions), being able to find the open corner shooter as the roll man will be key in Denver’s offense.
In this next clip, he showcases additional abilities by attacking a closeout in the corner, driving towards the rim and ultimately making a timely pass to a teammate that leads to an easy layup.
Also, Grant is able to attack closeouts and either make a play for a teammate or finish around the rim, as the below video showcases (clips compiled by the Denver Stiffs).
Ultimately, Grant is a dependent offensive player. As mentioned earlier, 99 percent of his 3-pointers were assisted last season and furthermore, 78.6 percent of his two-point field goals were assisted. However, those numbers were likely skewed as a result of the structure of Oklahoma City’s offense.
In Denver’s free-flowing system, Grant will likely see more opportunities to create for others, attack closeouts and run and score in transition. For the Nuggets, it would be worthwhile to increase the team’s pace to utilize Grant’s athleticism, while providing him with more opportunities to make the right play as the roll man would help the team’s bench unit.
One final difference between Denver’s offense and the Thunder offense that Grant has played in for the past three seasons is the floor-spacing. Since Grant joined Oklahoma City during the early stages of the 2016-17 season, the Thunder have ranked 30th, 24th and 22nd respectively in team 3-point percentage. Over that same stretch, Denver ranked 11th, 7th and 17th respectively. Given the plethora of shooters around him in the Nuggets’ offense, Grant will have more space to attack the basket and will have better opportunities to create for others.
Grant is not a go-to option on offense. The Nuggets traded for a forward that will bring most of his value to the table on the defensive end. However, given the structure of Denver’s offense, Grant will be able to sharpen his skill set, which already includes enough shooting, athleticism and playmaking to fit right in with the Nuggets.