2023 Playoffs: West Conf. Semifinal | Warriors vs. Lakers

Series Preview: LeBron James, Stephen Curry back at it in surprise showdown

Breaking down the Golden State-Los Angeles matchup with 3 things to watch, 1 X-factor and a series prediction.

It’s all respect between these two greats of the game, now matched up with major stakes once again.

What a treat: Another Steph Curry vs. LeBron James postseason showdown. And this could be the last time we see them in a battle for seasonal survival. We were truly blessed by the basketball gods to have these two all-timers perform on the highest stage, when for four straight years Steph and LeBron arm-wrestled over the Larry O’Brien Trophy. And now, while this a Western Conference semifinal, it’s not your usual conference playoff series. Not with these two.

Consider that Curry is coming off a masterful 50-piece in Game 7 against the Kings — the most points ever by a player in a decisive seventh game. Meanwhile, LeBron still has the blood of the Grizzlies on his jersey and, here in his 20th NBA season, is the bear you really don’t want to poke (Draymond Green alert). Given where they are deep in their careers, especially here in LeBron’s so-called twilight, this series should bring out whatever brilliance they can manage, which is still rather considerable.

Sure, there are supporting casters who have done terrific work in these playoffs, Anthony Davis prominent among them. But no disrespect to him and Klay Thompson and Dray and D’Angelo Russell and whomever else, Lakers vs. Warriors is whittled down to two guys who will very likely weigh heaviest for their teams in this series’ moment of truth, one way or another. Even more, each player is well aware of the danger that the other possesses. That’s a mutual respect almost on the same level as Bird vs. Magic.

So enjoy and savor while you can. Steph vs. LeBron is about to be unleashed upon us again in the West semifinal everyone wanted.


Regular-season results

Oct. 18: Warriors 123, Lakers 109
Feb. 11: Lakers 109, Warriors 103
Feb. 23: Lakers 124, Warriors 111
March 5: Lakers 113, Warriors 105


3 things to watch

Anthony Davis and Kevon Looney have been dominant, and the Lakers’ star must remain consistent for L.A. to emerge.

Kevon Looney vs. Anthony Davis. Normally you don’t see Looney’s name penciled in any crucial matchup, but he changed the conversation with his amazing performance in the first round. He outplayed the Kings’ Domantas Sabonis, who’ll likely be named to the All-NBA team this season, and never shies from other players with biggest resumes. In that sense, AD is up for a fight. Looney had rebounding games of 13, 14, 20, 21 and 22 against the Kings and also supplied smart defense. After Steph, he was the Warriors’ best player in that series.

Kevon Looney on offensive rebounds: 'Not everyone can be out there shooting 3s'

Meanwhile, AD was up and down against the Grizzlies, but his “ups” were tremendous (he averaged 13.7 rebounds and four blocks), and obviously he’s one of the best forwards of this generation (when healthy, which he is). It’s hard to imagine the Lakers advancing to the next round if AD doesn’t flourish in this one. And given what Looney has meant to the Warriors, AD will be challenged. So we’ll see who emerges — the grunt worker, or the star.

LeBron’s stamina. It’s always risky to question the energy of a player who takes such great care of his body and has lasted so long at such a high level. That said, is LeBron up to the task of playing heavy minutes — as in pushing 40 a night? While the Lakers did get a few days of rest following their ouster of the Grizzlies, and the flight to San Francisco is just long enough to devour the peanuts, they’ll play every other night in this best-of-seven.

That’s a lot to ask of a 38-year-old who has many miles on his body and who has been healthy for only one of his five seasons with the Lakers. Again, LeBron is a freak of nature and prepares himself for deep postseason runs. But he’ll need to play defense in this series, unlike the last one, when the Grizzlies didn’t offer much quickness aside from Ja Morant … whom LeBron didn’t guard. Against the Warriors, LeBron must burn the candle at both ends of the floor.

Jordan Poole’s leash. Ever since signing a massive contract (based off one very good season), Poole’s play has been up and down and certainly drives coach Steve Kerr crazy; the Warriors have no idea what he’ll bring once the ball goes up. Poole’s motor is always in high gear, which results in layups off the dribble and also out-of-control turnovers. His shot selection is insane; his defense, iffy.

As a result, Poole was mainly dreadful in the first round (33% shooting, 12.7 points) and this was on the heels of a hair-pulling season in which all of his vital numbers were down from his BC era (Before Contract). Could Kerr reduce Poole’s minutes if the Laker series starts to trend in the wrong direction? The Warriors would miss his offensive presence; opposing teams still must respect Poole’s unabashed willingness to shoot. The other option is giving those minutes to Gary Payton II, who brings the D without the offensive threat, and/or an untested Moses Moody.


X-factor

Rui Hachimura and Austin Reaves combine for 52 points in the Lakers' series-opening win.

Austin Reaves, Lakers. It’s a toss up between him and teammate Rui Hachimura, and maybe at this point Reaves is a real factor and not an X-factor. Wielding the ability to impact games because he can create shots and command respect from the defense, Reaves’ confidence is soaring along with his swagger. He’s a real threat to the Warriors — perhaps the third-biggest offensive threat after LeBron and AD. Plus, he’s playing for a contract this summer and those players are always dangerous and hungry. Klay Thompson will get the Reaves assignment and needs to be at his best. That’s how much respect Reaves has generated — and earned — in such a short amount of time. The postseason bright lights don’t rattle him.


Number to know

43.8% — In their first-round series against the Lakers, the Memphis Grizzlies shot just 48.5% in the paint, the worst mark for any team. And with Anthony Davis on the floor, Memphis shot just 98-for-224 (43.8%) in the paint. The Grizzlies led the league in points in the paint differential (+10.9 per game) in the regular season and took 40 more shots in the paint than the Lakers over the six-game series. But the Lakers still beat them in the paint by an average score of 53-49, largely because of how dominant Davis was defensively. And the best rim-protection mark of the first round (among players who defended at least 25 shots at the rim) actually belonged to LeBron James.

The Warriors, of course, are a jump-shooting team. In their seven-game series against the Sacramento Kings, they took only 42% of their shots, the lowest rate in the first round. And though they didn’t shoot particularly well from 3-point range (32.8%, 10th best in the first round), this could very well be a series of inside vs. out, with Davis needing to defend further from the basket than he did against Memphis. The Lakers themselves had a field goal percentage of 60.5% in the paint and an effective field goal percentage of just 44.8% on shots from outside the paint, and they had the league’s biggest differential in that regard in the regular season.

— John Schuhmann


The pick

Both teams are enjoying a rejuvenation: the Lakers from the midseason trades that fortified a stagnant club, and the Warriors from Andrew Wiggins’ return. So this promises to be an entertaining and maybe long series. Each team also eliminated a higher seed to arrive at this point, so they’re battle-tested. So let’s allow this series to be ultimately decided by the stars: Steph, Klay and Draymond for the Warriors; AD and LeBron for the Lakers.

It’s a tasty matchup given the history between LeBron and the Warriors (and Draymond) and also because of the reality that the biological basketball clock is ticking on most if not all of them. Which means we’ll see a sense of desperation from a group of players who have nothing to prove … and yet everything to gain by winning. Oh, and Steve Kerr is 19-0 against Western playoff teams (Yes, they’ve been to the Finals every playoff run he’s helmed). Therefore, give the slight edge to Curry and a Warriors’ team that plays better at both ends and owns home-court advantage. Key word: “Slight.” Warriors in 6.

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Shaun Powell has covered the NBA for more than 25 years. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Twitter.

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