Tyrese Haliburton and Zion Williamson look to lead their teams back to the postseason.
With the summer business of basketball almost done — maybe you heard a few times that Portland might make a blockbuster move before fall — it’s not too early to forecast which teams could make the playoffs next season.
Or to take a step further: Which teams that didn’t make the playoffs last season could, and maybe should, make it in 2023-24.
It won’t be easy to shake up the order in either conference, especially the East as the Bucks, Celtics, Sixers, Cavs, Knicks and Heat bring back the same level of talent. That’s six near-locks for eight playoff spots, and then there’s the Nets and Hawks who are seemingly the best of the rest.
The West is almost as challenging. The defending champion Nuggets, Kings, Suns, Warriors, Clippers and Lakers are your near-locks, leaving two spots up for grabs. And that’s not mentioning the Grizzlies, winners of 51 games and second place last season, only because Ja Morant will miss the first 25 games due to suspension. If Memphis can withstand those missed games, that’s seven teams with strong playoff credentials.
That said, this is the NBA. Stuff happens. Unexpected surprises are the norm in this league. Every year. Therefore, here are four lottery teams from 2022-23 with the best chance of making the playoffs next season, three from the West and one from the East:
Dallas Mavericks
Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic came up just short last season in their attempt to lead Dallas to the playoffs.
Dallas was the surprise non-playoff team of 2022-23, although there were reasons for that. Kyrie Irving didn’t arrive until midseason and then missed critical games. Also, the Mavs made some, ahem, strategic decisions in the final weeks and missed the playoffs but kept their No. 1 pick from the Knicks.
But that’s probably not going to be the case this season. Assuming good health, the Kyrie and Luka Doncic backcourt is too creative to be denied the playoffs.
Also, the Mavs had a solid offseason in terms of fortifying the supporting cast, bringing back Seth Curry and adding a solid defender in Grant Williams, while Richaun Holmes and Dante Exum are wild cards.
Remember, this team minus Kyrie went to the Western Conference Finals two years ago. It’s true that the competition since then is tougher. Still, Dallas has a pair of certified All-Stars and it’s rare when those teams are denied the postseason.
As much as it was a surprise to see the Mavericks sitting at home last spring, it’ll be an even bigger one if they’re doing so next spring. Let’s just say if all goes right in Dallas, there will be no need to tank.
New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans has its eyes on the playoffs after losing in the Play-In Tournament last season.
There’s a four-letter word that’ll be spoken loudly and in public — even in churches — throughout New Orleans this upcoming season that will explain everything:
Zion.
As in, If Zion stays healthy … that’s how everything with regard to the 2023-24 Pelicans will be prefaced. Including, and especially, their playoff chances. Essentially, Williamson hasn’t been the picture of health, and the Pelicans, therefore, have been stuck in a holding pattern.
They managed to put a first-round scare into the Suns two years ago without him but that was an abnormality. They failed to make the playoffs without him last season when they went 25-28 minus their Franchise Guy.
OK. For the purposes of this story, let’s assume Zion does indeed manage to keep his body intact. The Pelicans would definitely be in the mix for the playoffs, and at the very least the Play-In Tournament. You could argue that, if Zion not only stays healthy but has a breakout season, hardly far-fetched given his talent, then could New Orleans do what Sacramento did last season?
The talent is there. Brandon Ingram is All-Star quality, CJ McCollum can still get buckets and the support system features Trey Murphy III, Herb Jones, Jose Alvarado and Jonas Valanciunas. Plus, the Pelicans are flush with Draft capital and young assets and could put together a package by the trade deadline to upgrade a position or two if necessary.
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers look to end a 3-year postseason drought.
The good news? Indiana added a player who was crucial to the Nuggets’ 2023 championship. The bad? It wasn’t Nikola Jokic. That’s OK; Bruce Brown, who signed as a free agent, was a difference-maker for Denver and he’s good enough to have a similar effect with a team that has virtually no chance of reaching the NBA Finals like the Nuggets did, but could take a next step and make the playoffs.
Of course, it’ll take more than Brown to push the Pacers into the top eight in the East. The Pacers need multiple players in the rotation to rise up a level, and a few are capable of doing that. Start with Tyrese Haliburton, freshly signed to a rookie max extension and poised to cement his place among the best pure point guards in the game. Also, Bennedict Mathurin is coming off a very encouraging rookie year and his ceiling is high as well.
The key will be Myles Turner and whether he can build on his breakout season. Also, the Pacers must get more from Obi Toppin than the Knicks did.
Yes, a few things must happen before the Pacers can make plans for the playoffs. But of all the teams in the East that failed to reach the postseason in 2023, Indiana seems best equipped to break away from the lottery pack.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey plan to help lead a young OKC roster back to the playoffs.
The youngest team in the league last season — average age: 23.14 years — did something unsurprising this summer by adding more young talent. This includes Chet Holmgren, whose 2022-23 rookie season was pushed to this year because of a foot injury, Cason Wallace from the 2023 Draft and former two-time EuroLeague MVP Vasilije Micic, who averaged 16.5 points and 4.6 assists per game last season overseas.
That doesn’t mean OKC will take a step backward by adding more youth. The Thunder, if anything, have the look of a team ready for a breakthrough after an impressive rebuilding process. Again, we’re not talking about OKC being a contender — not yet anyway — but merely making the playoffs. That’s a very realistic goal.
Holmgren should be one of the team’s primary options right away and will form an intriguing frontcourt duo with Jalen Williams. Those two could cause matchup problems for other teams and also allow OKC to put different looks on the floor.
Also, does Josh Giddey show another growth spurt? What about Lu Dort? Those two were instrumental in helping OKC reach the Play-In Tournament last season and come a game away of making the playoffs.
Obviously, OKC’s 40 regular-season wins were made possible largely because Shai Gilgeous-Alexander became a star. He doesn’t need to have another gear for OKC, but if he does, then the Thunder’s playoff chances will be tremendously better.
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Shaun Powell has covered the NBA for more than 25 years. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Twitter.
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