The East-leading Cavs have taken better shots this season, which has led to an improved overall offense.

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For the first time in 10 years, NBA offense has taken a significant step backward.

Since the 2015-16 season (105.6 points scored per 100 possessions), league-wide efficiency has taken a pretty linear path (only two years where it went down by a little) toward an all-time high of 114.5 points scored per 100 possessions last season.

But through Wednesday, teams have scored just 112.7 per 100, what would be the biggest season-to-season dip in 13 years. Shooting is down (from both 2-point range and 3-point range), turnovers are up, and 23 of the 30 teams have scored less efficiently than they did last season.

But with the season almost halfway done, seven teams have managed to score more efficiently than they did in 2023-24:

Jumps in points scored per 100 possessions, 2023-24 to ’24-25

Through Jan. 15, 2025

Here are some notes on the top five…

Effective field goal percentage = (FGM + (0.5 * 3PM)) / FGA
True shooting percentage = PTS / (2 * (FGA + (0.44 * FTA)))

1. Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies had nowhere to go but up after an injury-riddled season in which they ranked 30th offensively. But when you compare their efficiency to the league average, this (+4.2) would be their best offensive season in franchise history (30 years) by a pretty wide margin.

• The Grizzlies’ offensive success starts in transition. They’ve averaged 34.9 transition points per game, what would be the most in 21 seasons of Synergy tracking by a huge margin. Ja Morant (7.1) and Desmond Bane (6.0) rank second and 10th among individuals.

• In the last 16 seasons (even when they had the fourth-ranked offense three years ago), the Grizzlies haven’t ranked higher than 18th in effective field goal percentage, the most important of the four factors on offense. This season, they’re sixth. They rank fourth in the percentage of their shots that have come in the paint (where every team shoots more effectively than they do from the outside) and are in the top 10 in 3-point percentage for what would be the first time in the last 18 seasons. They’re one of three teams with a league-high six guys who’ve shot the league average (36%) or better on at least 100 attempts from 3-point range.

• Memphis also ranks in the top 10 in free throw rate (sixth) and offensive rebounding percentage (second), with rookie Zach Edey (third among individuals who’ve averaged at least 15 minutes per game) having helped them see the league’s third-biggest jump in the latter. The Grizzlies are the only team that ranks in the top eight in three of the four factors on offense.

Their win over the Spurs on Wednesday was the 14th time the Grizzlies have scored more than 120 points per 100 possessions, something they did just eight times all of last season. They’ll play a second straight game in San Antonio on Friday (9:30 ET, ESPN).

2. Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavs aren’t just improved offensively. The difference between their mark and the league average (plus 8.6 points per 100 possessions) would be the second biggest in the 29 seasons for which we have play-by-play data.

• The Cavs’ effective field goal percentage of 59.2% would be the highest mark in NBA history by a wide margin, topping the Pacers’ mark of 57.8% last season. Six of the seven Cavs who’ve attempted at least 200 shots are registering the highest marks of their careers, with Darius Garland (59.5% vs. 53.7% two seasons ago) and Caris LeVert (58.6% vs. 52.8% as a rookie) registering their highest marks by huge margins.

• They are taking higher-quality shots, according to Second Spectrum tracking. They’ve seen jumps in the percentage of their 3-point attempts that have been wide open and the percentage that have come from the corners. They’re also getting more shots, having seen the league’s second-biggest drop in turnover rate.

• The Cavs have played the league’s easiest schedule regarding opposing defenses, with almost twice as many games against teams currently in the bottom 10 defensively (17) as they’ve played against teams currently in the top 10 (nine). But they’ve had the league’s best offense (by a healthy margin) against the top 10 defenses, having scored 118.6 points per 100 possessions in those nine games (winning eight of the nine).

That includes an efficient 129 points on 101 possessions last week against what has been the best defense in the 29 seasons of play-by-play data. The Cavs will try to do it again when they visit the Thunder on Thursday (7:30 p.m. ET, TNT), and they’ll face two more top-seven defenses (those of the Wolves and Rockets) in the next week.

3. Detroit Pistons

The Pistons are the league’s most improved team regarding winning percentage, having already won seven more games than they did all of last season (14-68). When considering the league average, they’ve seen statistically bigger improvement on offense.

• The Pistons’ three core starters — Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren — are all registering career-high marks in effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage. Cunningham has seen a big jump in the paint (54.7%) vs. last season (49.5%).

• Last season, the Pistons were one of two teams that ranked in the bottom five in both 3-point percentage (26th) and the percentage of their shots from 3-point range (27th). They’ve seen big jumps in both, with new addition Malik Beasley having made more 3-pointers in 40 games (151) than any Pistons player made last season (when Ivey led the team with 124).

• While the Grizzlies and Cavs have seen jumps in drives per game, the Pistons have seen the league’s biggest drop. Cunningham still ranks fifth among individuals with 16.4 drives per game, having shot better (50.6%) and committed fewer turnovers (5.9 per 100 drives) than he did last season (46.8%, 7.5 per 100).

The Pistons rank eighth offensively (117.0 points scored per 100 possessions) as they’ve won 10 of their last 12 games, climbing to seventh place in the Eastern Conference. The sixth-place Indiana Pacers have been similarly hot and will play a big game in Detroit on Thursday (7 p.m. ET, League Pass), with the two teams having split their first two meetings.

4. San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs ranked second in the percentage of their minutes that came from rookies or second-year players last season, and with a couple of veteran starters added to the mix, improvement was certainly expected.

• Chris Paul makes every team he joins better, and the Spurs have been at their best offensively (114.4 points scored per 100 possessions) with the 39-year-old on the floor. He ranks second in assist/turnover ratio (4.82) and San Antonio has seen the league’s third biggest drop in turnover rate from last season.

• Thanks to their other veteran addition, the Spurs have also seen the league’s third-biggest jump in free throw rate. Harrison Barnes’ rate of 35.8 attempts per 100 shots from the field is the highest on the team (but Victor Wembanyama — 21.1 per 100 — leads the team in total attempts).

• Wembanyama has seen a big drop in free throw rate from last season (30.9 attempts per 100 shots from the field) and a huge drop (from 51% to 36%) in the percentage of his shots that have come in in the paint (where he’s shot much more effectively than he has from the outside). But he’s still seen jumps in effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage, he’s shooting better in the paint, from 3-point range and the free throw line. He’s seen a huge drop in pull-up 3-point percentage (from 37.5% to 31.8% this season) but has seen a bigger jump in catch-and-shoot 3-point percentage (from 28.3% to 37.2%), while also seeing a big jump in the percentage of his 3-point attempts that have been off the catch (from 57% to 71%).

The Spurs’ loss to Memphis on Wednesday began a stretch where they’re playing seven of nine games against teams that rank in the top 11 defensively. They’ll host the fifth-ranked Grizzlies again on Friday (9:30 ET, ESPN).

5. New York Knicks

When you add one of the best shooting bigs in NBA history, your offense gets better.

• The Knicks have also made Karl-Anthony Towns a better shooter, with his true shooting percentage of 66.4% being a career best and is top among the 21 players who’ve averaged at least 24 points per game this season. Towns has shot a career-best 44.9% from 3-point range and has also taken a career-high 64% of his shots in the paint. The Knicks offense has been at its best (120.8 points scored per 100 possessions) with Towns on the floor.

• With Mitchell Robinson out, Isaiah Hartenstein in Oklahoma City and Towns more of a perimeter big, the Knicks have seen the league’s second-biggest drop in offensive rebounding percentage, going from first to 13th. But they’ve made up for that with the third-biggest jump in effective field goal percentage and the fifth-biggest drop in turnover rate.

• Jalen Brunson leads the league in time of possession (8.8 minutes per game) for the second straight season, and the Knicks rank second as a team. They have the league’s longest possessions on average (15.6 seconds), according to Second Spectrum tracking. But their effective field goal percentage of 52.7% in the last six seconds of the shot clock is the league’s best mark by a wide margin and up from 47.2% (18th) last season.

The Knicks have played a relatively easy schedule regarding opposing defenses, but their December win in Minnesota was the second most efficient performance allowed by the Wolves’ seventh-ranked defense. The rematch — returns to Madison Square Garden for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo — is Friday (7:30 p.m. ET, League Pass).

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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.

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