Jrue Holiday and the Celtics must corral Luka Doncic, who is enjoying an impressive playoff run.

There’s more balance to this Dallas Mavericks’ offense than in recent years.

Per Second Spectrum tracking, Luka Doncic has had the ball in his hands for 21% of his minutes on the floor in these playoffs, which would be his lowest rate in any postseason or regular season since his rookie year. And the number of ball screens set for Doncic per 100 possessions is the lowest rate for his four postseasons by a wide margin.

But the Mavs’ star still ranks second in these playoffs in time of possession, both regarding minutes per game (8.8) and the percentage of his minutes on the floor for which he’s had the ball. And Dallas has still set 52 ball screens per 100 possessions for Doncic, the highest rate for any player the Boston Celtics have faced in these playoffs.

Game-planning against the Mavs in the NBA Finals still starts with how teams defend Doncic in the pick-and-roll.

Here are 10 notes, numbers and bits of film on why that so’s difficult and how the Celtics may go about it:

1. The Mavs’ bigs are their primary screeners

Through the playoffs’ first three rounds, Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II have set 59% of the ball screens for Doncic. After setting those screens, the two bouncy bigs force opposing defenses to account for them at the rim.

The Mavs have scored 1.15 points per possession when Gafford or Lively have set a ball screen for Doncic, compared to just 1.08 per possession when somebody else has set the ball screen.

2. A big setting the screen doesn’t mean a big is defending it

The Celtics don’t always have their bigs guard the opponents’ bigs. Lively, who started both games against Boston this season, had Jayson Tatum as his primary defender. If Tatum is defending the screener, he can switch the screen and keep Doncic in front of him. Doncic’s initial defender (Jaylen Brown was the primary guy in the regular season) must then work to get between the roll man and the basket.

3. Switching = isolations

Switching — whether it’s with Tatum or with a big– will often lead to an isolation, where Doncic is pretty comfortable. His 555 points on isolation possessions in the regular season were the most for any player in the last four years, according to Synergy tracking.

The Celtics switch a lot, so they ranked fourth in the percentage of their opponents’ possessions that ended in an isolation in the regular season. The 0.90 points per possession they allowed on isolations ranked just 11th, but that number is just 0.80 in the playoffs.

4. Horford could be the primary target

In the two regular-season meetings between the Celtics and Mavs, Dallas set 89 ball screens for Doncic. Of those 89, 26 were set by the guy Al Horford was defending, with no other Boston defender accounting for more than 10 screens. The 15.9 Doncic ball screens per 36 minutes that Horford defended were topped by only Luke Kornet’s rate of 19.3 per 36. And if Kristaps Porzingis is healthy, we shouldn’t see much of Kornet in this series.

When Doncic and Horford are both on the floor, expect the latter to be the primary target in the pick-and-roll. Over those two regular-season meetings, Horford was a little more likely to play drop coverage (retreating back to the paint) than switch onto Doncic.

5. Drop coverage could yield paint attacks

Drop coverage allows Doncic to either shoot off the dribble or get into the paint. While he’s not the most effective shooter off the dribble, he’s been improved this season. When he gets in the paint, he’s both great at drawing fouls and one of the most effective passers we’ve ever seen. Doncic leads these playoffs in assists on 3-pointers (50) and assists on dunks (49).

6. Will the Celtics help off shooters?

Whether they’re switching or in drop coverage, the Celtics generally want to defend pick-and-rolls with just two defenders, so the other three can stay with their man. This is a big reason why they’ve allowed just 1.5 corner 3-pointers per game in the playoffs.

But if anybody’s going to challenge the Celtics’ desire to stay at home on shooters, it’s Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Derrick Jones Jr. is seemingly a guy the Celtics could help off of, but he’s shot 39.6% from 3-point range in the playoffs, up from 34.3% in the regular season. P.J. Washington has seen a similar jump (from 32% to 36.3%), though it should be noted that 73% of the duo’s makes (45/62) have come from the corners.

7. Defending at the level of the screen is not a great option

Instead of dropping back into the paint or switching, the screener’s defender could be at the level of the screen, the coverage that the Denver Nuggets mostly employ with Nikola Jokic. But that’s a tough coverage to master because it allows the screener to get behind his defender while also not putting a lot of pressure on the ball-handler and allowing him to see the floor.

One of Doncic’s most impressive assists of the postseason came against “at the level” coverage from the Minnesota Timberwolves in the conference finals. Mike Conley was in the paint off Jones in the opposite corner and Doncic was able to whip a skip pass to Jones for a catch-and-shoot 3:

8. Would the Celtics blitz?

Both in the regular season and in the playoffs, opponents have had the most success (1.01 points allowed per possession) when they’ve “blitz” a ball screen for Doncic, where the screener’s defender jumps out above the screen with pressure.

Ball-screen coverage vs. Luka Doncic

Includes regular season and playoffs
via Second Spectrum tracking

Blitzing puts two guys on the ball and encourages Doncic to get rid of it, forcing somebody else to make a play or shot. If that somebody else isn’t Irving, you could be in pretty good shape.

But no team is less willing to put two defenders on the ball than the Celtics. They’ve blitzed just 1% of their opponents’ ball screens, the lowest rate in the playoffs.

The Celtics aren’t bad at rotating out of disadvantage situations when needed. They also did double-team Pascal Siakam a few times in the conference finals, so they’re not above such a strategy. But they’d prefer to play 1-on-1 or two-on-two.

9. A switch doesn’t have to come from the screener’s defender

One exception to the “guard a pick-and-roll with just two defenders” philosophy is when Jrue Holiday switches from away from the action.

If the screener’s defender is in drop coverage or stays attached to his man and Holiday is the “nail” defender (responsible for cutting off a drive through the middle of the paint), he’ll often leave his man and switch onto the ball, calling for the ball handler’s defender (trailing the play) to veer off and take the guy Holiday just left:

Nobody makes that switch as often as Holiday. Keep an eye out for it in the Finals.

10. Stick with what got you here (and adjust if needed)

The Celtics blitzed just two of the 89 ball screens that Dallas set for Doncic in the two regular-season meetings, and they won both games, allowing just 110.0 points per 100 possessions. That was the Mavs’ second-worst mark against any opponent.

Of course, the only team who held the Mavs to lower efficiency in the regular season was the Wolves, who Dallas just dispatched in five games, scoring 12.7 more points per 100 possessions than they scored in the four regular-season meetings and 11.7 more than the Wolves allowed the defending champion Nuggets to score in the conference semifinals.

We should expect the Celtics to begin the series by defending as usual. Porzingis will likely be in drop coverage, Horford will mix things up (drop or switch) and their guards and forwards will mostly switch.

They have a lot of great defenders, but many great defenders have already failed to stop Doncic. And it wouldn’t be a big surprise if he forces Boston to make adjustments, play out of character, and put two on the ball at some point in this series.

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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.

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