Fantasy

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer: Dec 11

FantasyPros breaks down the top DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy players for the NBA's 13-game slate on Monday.

Joel Bartilotta, FantasyPros

December 11, 2023 7:14 PM

Houston’s Alperen Sengun has scored at least 39 DraftKings fantasy points in 11 of his last 12 games.

The In-Season Tournament was a fantastic journey, and now many of the teams need to play after sitting on Saturday and Sunday. That’s why almost every team is in action on this Monday card, so let’s go ahead and get into it!

Core plays

Tyrese Haliburton (PG – IND): $10,900 DraftKings, $11,700 FanDuel

The Lakers held down Hali in that In-Season Championship, but he’s been unstoppable outside of that. The Pacers point guard has scored at least 42 DraftKings points in all but one game this season, scoring at least 63 fantasy points in each of his last three outings. That has his season average above 55 DK points, and we don’t want to fade him against a Detroit team posting a 28th OPRK against opposing guards.

Alperen Sengun (C – HOU): $8,900 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel

Sengun is stepping into stardom, and we don’t want to avoid him against the Spurs. Let’s start there because San Antonio sits in the bottom three in points allowed, defensive efficiency and fantasy points surrendered to opposing centers. That’s a recipe for success when talking about Sengun, scoring at least 39 DraftKings points in 11 of his last 12 games. In his last two matchups with the Spurs, Sengun is sporting a 54-point average against them!

Terry Rozier (PG/SG – CHA): $8,300 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel

Scary Terry is always one of our top choices whenever LaMelo Ball is out of the lineup. That makes Rozier the primary playmaker, posting a 32 percent usage rate with Ball off the floor. Rozier has also been averaging over 40 fantasy points per game whenever Ball has been out over the last two years, scoring at least 45 DK points in four straight fixtures. Miami can be a tough matchup, but they own a 16th OPRK against opposing guards.

Cash game considerations

Nikola Jokic (C – DEN): $11,900 DraftKings, $12,400 FanDuel

The Joker just had his two worst shooting performances of his career last week, and he still had good games! That tells you everything you need to know, with Jokic scoring at least 67 fantasy points in 11 of his last 17 games. A stretch like that is hard to fathom, especially since he’s flirting with a 70-point average in that span. A matchup with Atlanta is impressive, too, ranked 26th in defensive efficiency ratings.

Luka Doncic (PG – DAL): $11,800 DraftKings, $12,200 FanDuel

With Kyrie Irving missing this game, it will be tough to fade Luka. This guy was already one of the league leaders in usage, averaging over 60 DraftKings points per game. He’s actually just shy of a 40 percent usage rate when Irving is off the floor, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Luka play 40 minutes, take 30 shots, and post a 40 percent usage rate in this spot. If that happens, Doncic should destroy a 21st-ranked Memphis defense.

Joel Embiid (C – PHI): $11,700 DraftKings, $12,900 FanDuel

Embiid took down MVP honors last season, but he’s been even better this year. He’s been asked to do more with James Harden out of town, averaging over 62 DraftKings points per game. He also comes into this matchup, scoring 68 or more DK points in five straight fixtures! Jokic is the only other guy who can do that, but Embiid has the best matchup of these three. He faces a Wizards team with the worst defensive rating in the NBA, allowing Embiid to score 80 DK points against them just last week!

GPP targets

Myles Turner (C – IND): $7,300 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel

Turner struggled along with the rest of the Pacers in that championship on Saturday, but he’s always an intriguing option in a GPP. This guy has showcased a 50-point upside numerous times throughout his career and is averaging over 35 DK points per game for the fastest-paced team in the NBA. What we really love is this matchup, though, with Detroit sitting 24th in defensive ratings while posting a 20th OPRK against opposing centers. Turner was held below 27 minutes in their last matchup but still had 52 DraftKings points in one of the best games of his career!

Khris Middleton (SF – MIL): $6,300 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel

Middleton has been impossible to use in DFS because of his slow ramp-up, but we’re creeping close to a full workload. The Bucks small forward played a season-high 30 minutes in his most recent outing, providing 39 DK points in that gem. We’ve seen this All-Star average 40 DK points per game in a 30-minute role in the past, and he was closer to $8K on both sites back then. If the minutes are creeping up, the price needs to as well!

Duncan Robinson (SG/SF – MIA): $5,900 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel

Robinson had one of the worst outings of his career last week, but he’s amidst a revival season. Before that stinker, D-Rob averaged 32 DK points per game in the nine fixtures he finished. That’s an astounding total from a sub-$6K player, but it’s no surprise since he’s locked into 30-35 minutes and 15-20 shots in the absence of Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo. His biggest asset might be this matchup, though, with Charlotte surrendering the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing wings. When they played a few weeks ago, Robinson registered 41 fantasy points!

Value plays

Tyus Jones (PG – WAS): $5,600 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel

Jones was horrible in his first month with his new team, but this guard is starting to find it. We saw Jones average 35 DK points per game when he started for Ja Morant last season, and we expect to see something like that going forward. Tyus is averaging 33 DraftKings points per game across his previous three outings. That’s what we’ve been waiting to see, and we love that he had 42 fantasy points against this Philly team less than a week ago.

Orlando Robinson (C – MIA): $5,600 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel

If O-Rob gets another start for Adebayo here, he’s one of the best values on the slate. The big man has started at center in the last three games that Bam sat, averaging over 31 DK points per game in this expanded role. The per-minute production speaks for itself, posting a 21-point average across 18 minutes a night. If you bump that to 25-30 minutes, we’re talking about a guy who could average 35 fantasy points per game! Not to mention, Charlotte surrendered the most fantasy points to opposing centers last season.

Killian Hayes (PG – DET): $5,500 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel

This Detroit team has been a disaster, but it’s not because of Hayes. He’s been inserted into the starting lineup recently, averaging 32 DK points per game since reclaiming this role. We also saw him post a 28-point average in his first 10 games as the starting point guard, and Detroit has to keep him in there with his ability to stuff the stat sheet. This matchup is fantastic because Indy plays at the fastest pace in the NBA while ranked dead last in points allowed.

Advantageous pricing