We’ve reached the home stretch of the NBA regular season with only a month to go. It’s the time of year when teams begin to jockey for position. When players can make or break their individual performances with a strong finishing kick, or not. When speculation about the league’s annual awards turns to declarative statements.

Such as “Cade Cunningham is the Rookie of the Year.”

That was the chatter coming out of Detroit this week after the Pistons beat Atlanta in overtime for their third consecutive victory and sixth in nine games. Not “might be” or even “ought to be,” but “is,” as if the case is closed.

“He’s Rookie of the Year,” coach Dwane Casey said after Cunningham scored 28 points with six rebounds and 10 assists, outdueling Hawks All-Star Trae Young. “That’s not even close as far as talent evaluation. I’ve been in it a long time. He’s playing like a 10-year vet.”

Dwane Casey on Cade Cunningham after the #Pistons win:

"He's rookie of the year. It's not even close."

pic.twitter.com/sXEcWSXfYB

— Brad Galli (@BradGalli) March 8, 2022

Casey isn’t wrong. But he’s not right exactly either. It’s fine for him to lobby for his guy – that’s what most teams do, whether it’s a coach or teammate asked by a reporter or an entire marketing department creating a campaign to influence voters.

But ballots won’t be completed and cast for weeks still. Candidates for all of the NBA’s major awards still have time to rise or fall. And the problem with such proclamations is they’re made in a vacuum.

They’re like arguing that this or that player should have made an All-Star team. It’s kind of important at that point to say, “Instead of … ?”

In the remarkably deep Draft Class of 2021, solid cases can be made for why three or four different young guys should be named the season’s top rookie.

Cleveland’s Evan Mobley has been atop many rankings most of the year, based on his solid and vet-like two-way game and the impact he’s had on the Cavaliers’ surprising success. Scottie Barnes has been a revelation in Toronto, whose selection at No. 4 initially raised eyebrows but now generates knowing nods. All while No. 8 overall pick Franz Wagner continues to provide steady production for Orlando with averages of 15.5 ppg, 4.6 rpg and 3.0 apg.

Then there’s Cunningham, who has gotten better steadily after an injury-hobbled start and is playing like the No. 1 pick he was.

Cunningham has developed quickly, both in individual confidence and as the Pistons’ floor general. “I feel probably most comfortable in my life whenever I have the ball in my hands,” he said. “It’s my favorite hobby in life. I love it more than anything. The trust they have in me to go create something and make something happen, I really appreciate it.”

Cade Cunningham said it means a lot to hear Dwane Casey call him rookie of the year.

Does he believe it himself? "Yeah, come on player," he said. #Pistons pic.twitter.com/EoLYefwoYR

— Brad Galli (@BradGalli) March 8, 2022

The Detroit guard’s stats, as you can see on the Kia Rookie Ladder rankings below, are ROY-worthy. They’re almost mirror images of what 2021 winner LaMelo Ball (15.7 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 6.1 apg) posted in the major categories.

One area, however, in which Cunningham’s case will trail Mobley’s and Barnes’ will be team success. Cleveland is headed for the playoffs and so is Toronto, straight up or via Play-In. Detroit, meanwhile, is 18-47, projecting to 23-59 over 82 games.

That would be 36 games under .500, which would rank third-worst among the past 10 Rookie of the Year winners. Only Andrew Wiggins’ Timberwolves in 2015 (16-66) and Michael Carter-Williams’ Sixers in 2014 (19-63) were worse.

This isn’t MVP voting, of course; there’s only so much most rookies, however dynamic, can do to boost his whole team’s performance.

Cunningham does have a couple of winning marks in his portfolio. Detroit is 17-34 when he plays (compared to 1-13 when he has been out). That projects to 27-55 over 82 games. He also has a personal 7-2 mark against the teams that drafted the next four prospects (Jalen Green, Mobley, Barnes and Jalen Suggs).

Just so everyone understands that nobody is the Rookie of the Year until the voters say so.

The Top 5 this week on the 2021-22 Kia Rookie Ladder:

(All stats through Monday, March 7)

1. Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers

Season stats: 14.6 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 2.6 apg
Since last Ladder: 12.0 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 2.3 apg
Last Ladder’s rung: 1
Draft pick: No. 3 overall

The favorite for much of this for Rookie of the Year faces one of his biggest challenges, forging ahead while frontcourt sidekick Jarrett Allen mends from his fractured left middle finger. Instead of Mobley feeling a nudge to score more while Darius Garland was out, now it’s a need for more of Mobley’s big man game at both ends with minutes at center. There’s Cleveland’s 3-6 slide from third in the East to sixth to brake (he’s minus-6.0 per game in the skid), and a tightening ROY race with Cunningham and Barnes, too. Lots on Mobley’s plate from now right through the Cavs’ postseason.

2. Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons

Season stats: 16.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 5.2 apg
Since last Ladder: 22.5 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 5.8 apg
Last Ladder’s rung: 3
Draft pick: No. 1 overall

It isn’t just his string of four consecutive 20-point games that has supporters clamoring for Cunningham’s ROY consideration. Nor his averages of 21.4 points, 7.8 rebounds and 5.5 assists since Feb. 16. It’s his plus/minus of 4.4 in helping the lowly Pistons go 6-2 in that time, with a plus-8.3 in their just-completed 3-1 week. Granted, Cunningham has been taking 19.1 shots per game since the All-Star break (Denver’s MVP Nikola Jokic averages 17.2). But he’s making many of those in clutch moments, and he has moved his game inside more vs. his tilt to the arc early in the season.

3. Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors

Season stats: 14.9 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 3.3 apg
Since last Ladder: 17.0 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 4.0 apg
Last Ladder’s rung: 2
Draft pick: No. 4 overall

Vince Carter, one of Toronto’s two Rookies of the Year (Damon Stoudemire is the other) had high praise for the Raptors’ current ROY contender. “He’s cool, calm, collected, loves to play the game,” Carter said on a Sportsnet pregame show. “You can throw him in any position, he can guard any position, and he can play any position. … You have a star in the making already.” Versatility is Barnes’ strength – the point forward leads all rookies in offensive rebounds (146, 35 more than Mobley).

4. Franz Wagner, Orlando Magic

Season stats: 15.6 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 3.0 apg
Since last Ladder: 18.0 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 4.0 apg
Last Ladder’s rung: 4
Draft pick: No. 8 overall

Considering the Magic’s difficulty scoring points, Wagner’s 1,023 – he’s the only rookie to have scored 1,000 or more, with Cunningham way back in second place at 843 – is no small achievement. That represents 15% of Orlando’s total offensive output. For comparison, Memphis’ MVP candidate Ja Morant has scored 19% of the Grizzlies’ total. Wagner’s consistency has been equal to his durability, too.

Franz Wagner over his last 20 games:

16.1 PTS
4.7 REB
3.4 AST
50.8% FG | 42.9% 3P | 89.4% FT pic.twitter.com/kn4sr73pm4

— Orlando Magic (@OrlandoMagic) March 8, 2022

5. Josh Giddey, Oklahoma City Thunder

Season stats: 12.5 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 6.4 apg
Since last Ladder: DNP
Last Ladder’s rung: 5
Draft pick: No. 6 overall

Giddey racked up his fourth straight Rookie of the Month award in the Western Conference, but February matters less than March at the moment. Coach Mark Daigneault, in his latest update on the Aussie guard’s hip soreness, said the rookie leader in assists would be out another two weeks. If the injury lingers to a point where the Thunder have only single-digit games remaining, it’s possible OKC could shut him down.

The Next 7:

6. Jalen Green, Houston Rockets

Season stats: 15.4 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2.5 apg
Since last Ladder: 21.8 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 3.8 apg
Last Ladder’s rung: 8
Draft pick: No. 2 overall

Most Improved rookie since All-Star break (if award existed).

7. Ayo Dosunmu, Chicago Bulls

Season stats: 8.4 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 3.2 apg
Since last Ladder: 11.3 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 5.0 apg
Last Ladder’s rung: 6
Draft pick: No. 38 overall

Shooting 31.5% on 3s in losses vs. 45.2% in victories.

8. Herbert Jones, New Orleans Pelicans

Season stats: 9.4 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 2.1 apg
Since last Ladder: 7.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 2.0 apg
Last Ladder’s rung: 7
Draft pick: No. 35 overall

Precocious leader of improved defense “flying all over the place.”

9. Jonathan Kuminga, Golden State Warriors

Season stats: 8.6 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 0.7 apg
Since last Ladder: 13.8 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 0.8 apg
Last Ladder’s rung: 11
Draft pick: No. 7 overall

From just fitting in, to one of sagging Warriors’ brightest lights.

10. Chris Duarte, Indiana Pacers

Season stats: 13.3 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 2.2 apg
Since last Ladder: DNP
Last Ladder’s rung: 9
Draft pick: No. 13 overall

Back again from nagging toe injury after missing six of nine games.

11. Alperen Sengun, Houston Rockets

Season stats: 8.9 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 2.4 apg
Since last Ladder: 9.6 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 2.0 apg
Last Ladder’s rung: N/A
Draft pick: No. 16 overall

Pro-rated darling – 16.8, 9.3, 4.6 per 36 min. – but playing only 19.1 mpg.

12. Jalen Suggs, Orlando Magic

Season stats: 12.5 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 4.5 apg
Since last Ladder: 14.5 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 6.0 apg
Last Ladder’s rung: 10
Draft pick: No. 5 overall

Shooting 16% on 3FGAs since Feb. 1.

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Steve Aschburner has written about the NBA since 1980. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Twitter.

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