Milwaukee’s new star duo showed plenty of offensive potential in the preseason.
The Milwaukee Bucks now have two of the six players who averaged more than 30 points per game last season.
How do you defend them? Great question.
With Damian Lillard set to make his Bucks debut on Thursday against the Philadelphia 76ers (7:30 ET, TNT), here are some notes, numbers and film from his preseason minutes alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo.
1. Blitz and scramble
The No. 1 action for the Bucks’ offense will surely be the Lillard-Antetokounmpo pick and roll. And they went to it early and often in the three preseason games the two stars played together.
How teams defend that action will be a big question from now until May (or June). The first two preseason opponents — the Los Angeles Lakers and Oklahoma City Thunder — mostly blitzed the pick and roll, putting two on the ball. That keeps Lillard from being able to shoot as he comes off the screen, but it creates a dangerous 4-on-3 situation behind the blitz, with Antetokounmpo catching the ball in the middle of the floor.
The back line of the defense obviously has to sink to the paint, and often, one guy helping isn’t enough against Antetokounmpo. Doing so could leave multiple players open on the weak side.
2. The others will get shots
When both Lillard and Antetokounmpo were on the floor in those two games in which the opponent mostly blitzed:
- Bucks players other than Lillard and Antetokounmpo ended 42 offensive plays (with a shot, turnover or trip to the line).
- Lillard and Antetokounmpo combined to end 39 plays.
As great and those two are, a lot of critical possessions will come down to their teammates making open shots. If you’re the opponent, that might be a better proposition than keeping the ball in the hands of the stars.
3. Drop and hope
The Lakers and Thunder did mix up their coverages a bit. On the first play of the third quarter in L.A., Lakers forward Christian Wood was back at the free throw line when Bobby Portis set a screen for Lillard. You can probably guess the result.
Though he missed 24 games, Lillard led the league with 159 pull-up 3-pointers last season. Over the years, he’s consistently shot around 37% on pull-up 3s (like shooting 56% on 2-pointers), and he obviously has to be respected from beyond the arc.
4. Switch and deal with the mismatch
There wasn’t much switching the Lillard-Antetokounmpo pick and roll in the preseason. But Memphis Grizzlies guard Marcus Smart (guarding Antetokounmpo) switched one on Friday, leaving Ziaire Williams to deal with the former two-time Kia MVP. He didn’t deal well …
To confidently switch the action (and not have to get other defenders involved), teams need two defenders who could both stay with Lillard on the perimeter and handle Antetokounmpo inside. There isn’t a team with two of those players — and maybe just a few with one.
5. Defend with length
You would think that the Grizzlies would have put Smart, a former Kia Defensive Player of the Year, on Lillard to start their game on Friday. But instead, they went with Williams.
It quickly became clear why they did so. Williams is six inches taller than Smart, and the difference in range is greater than that when you take wingspan into account.
Except for the one switch illustrated above, the Grizzlies played drop coverage, counting on Williams to get over the screen and keep Lillard from shooting comfortably. He did just that.
On the very first play of the game, the Bucks ran an empty-corner pick and roll with Brook Lopez setting a screen on the right side of the floor. Xavier Tillman dropped back to prevent an easy pass to Lopez, while Williams trailed Lillard around the screen and swatted his runner.
Midway through the second quarter, Lopez and Antetokounmpo set a double-drag screen for Lillard. Neither Tillman nor Smart (guarding the screeners) stepped up, but Williams scooted around both screens and prevented a Lillard shot.
If teams have somebody who can stay attached to Lillard around screens, they can play drop coverage and minimize the Bucks’ advantages. But wings that long who can navigate screens that well are tough to come by.
The Boston Celtics’ Jrue Holiday doesn’t have that length, but he can be tenacious when it comes to sticking with his man.
With the Grizzlies mostly playing drop coverage, the Bucks’ usage balance when both Lillard and Antetokounmpo were on the floor was different on Friday than it was in the previous two games:
- Bucks players other than Lillard and Antetokounmpo ended 15 offensive plays.
- Lillard and Antetokounmpo combined to end 26 plays.
But the Bucks scored less efficiently in those minutes (36 points on 37 possessions) than they did in the previous two games with both stars on the floor, mostly because the other guys (who weren’t left so wide open) shot just 4-for-14, including 1-for-9 from 3-point range.
6. Small screens for big
When you want to get your two stars working together, the big guy doesn’t always have to screen for the guard. Shooters can be the best screeners, because their defenders often don’t want to leave them.
After a timeout against the Lakers, Lillard hit Wood (guarding Antetokounmpo) with a back screen. And with D’Angelo Russell (guarding Lillard) worried about denying the ensuing handoff, Antetokounmpo had an easy dunk.
The Bucks ran a “flex” set against the Thunder, where Lillard set a baseline screen for Antetokounmpo, which can allow him to gain some separation before curling off another screen into a handoff.
When Russell denied Lillard from taking another handoff from Antetokounmpo, Lillard used Russell as a screener, allowing Antetokounmpo to attack and draw a foul.
While the standard pick and roll should be the foundation of the Bucks’ offense, there are lots of actions they can use to gain advantages with their two stars. There are also lots of ways to defend them.
But there are no easy answers.
* * *
John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Twitter.
The views on this page do not necessarily reflect the views of the NBA, its clubs or Warner Bros. Discovery
