In improbable fashion, the Eastern Conference Finals have come down to Game 7 on Monday (8:30 p.m. ET, TNT).

The Boston Celtics trailed this series 3-0 and got absolutely clobbered in Game 3, what looked like a must-win situation. When the buzzer sounded at the end of Game 6, they were still trailing by a point. But Derrick White’s tip-in was out of his hands and in the air, falling through the net to give the Celtics their first three-game winning streak of the postseason.

This will be the 148th Game 7 in NBA history and the 38th in the conference (or division) finals. The last one of those, of course, was between these same two teams exactly one year ago. The Miami Heat had home-court advantage then but lost by four after Jimmy Butler (in the same exact situation he was three years earlier) missed a pull-up 3-pointer for the lead with 17 seconds left.

This time, the Celtics will have home-court advantage. Home teams (throwing out four neutral-site games in 2020) are 109-34 (.762) in Game 7s, with the Celtics 22-5 in home Game 7s after their 24-point win over Philadelphia in the conference semifinals. But the road team (including the Cs last year) has won five of eight Game 7s over the last three postseasons.

The Celtics are 48 minutes from becoming the first team in NBA history to win a series it trailed 3-0. But the Heat still have life, and they’ve won two of their three road games in this series.

Here are five things to watch in Game 7:

1. Which stars will shine?

Jimmy Butler made the three free throws to put the Heat ahead with 3.0 seconds left in Game 6, the last of his 13 points in the final 3:51. He otherwise struggled in one of the biggest games of the season, shooting 5-for-21 from the field, including an amazing 3-for-15 (20%) in the paint. That’s tied (with Game 4 of last year’s conference finals, 2-for-10) for his second-worst paint shooting performance in the 203 career games (regular season and playoffs) in which he’s had at least 10 attempts.

Butler has had his ups and downs in this series, and the Heat were able to win Game 3 despite a relatively quiet night (16 points) from their star. It was also just five weeks ago when he scored 56 points (tied for the fourth-highest scoring game in playoff history) against what was a top-five defense this season.

Bam Adebayo also struggled (4-for-16, including 3-for-13 in the paint) in Game 6, and has averaged just 12.3 points over the last three games. Among rotation players, only Gabe Vincent has a bigger true shooting percentage difference in wins vs. losses this series.

Wins vs. losses in the ECF has been more about the Heat's end of the floor.

Miami has the four guys w/ the biggest TS% differences in wins vs. losses. pic.twitter.com/fi7XgmcfdP

— John Schuhmann (@johnschuhmann) May 28, 2023

Given the way the Celtics have been swarming in the paint, it may be harder for the big man to get on track. But Miami will likely need a much better performance from one of their stars to win Game 7.

Butler isn’t the only player in this series who’s scored 50 points in these playoffs. In fact, Jayson Tatum’s 51 against the Sixers two weeks ago was the most ever in a Game 7. The Celtics star has scored 30-plus four times this series, but has been quiet in some key moments and is just 10-for-43 (23%) from 3-point range over the six games.

Jaylen Brown, meanwhile, has the Celtics’ biggest difference between his true shooting percentage in wins (56.5%) vs. losses (39.8%). Game 6 was his best of the series, and not just because he made some shots. He tied his career high with five offensive rebounds, and a few of them came with terrific effort.

All-NBA players can make winning plays too.

2. Big minutes for Miami

The Heat were the team with the 3-2 series lead on Saturday, but were also the team that played more desperate in regard to playing time, with Butler (46:40) and Adebayo (45:39) each playing more than 45 minutes. Adebayo proved to be the more important of the two, mostly because who Miami was left with in the frontline when he went to the bench.

Kevin Love, who started the first five games, didn’t play at all. Cody Zeller played 2:11 and the Heat were outscored by seven points, allowing 11 points on five defensive possessions in those 131 seconds. Over the six games, the Heat have been outscored by 13.5 points per 100 possessions in 117 total minutes with either Love or Zeller on the floor.

Love and Zeller rank eighth and ninth on the team in total minutes played in this series, but first and second in the number of times they’ve been the screener’s defender when the Celtics have set a ball screen for Tatum, according to Second Spectrum tracking. Boston has scored an efficient 1.3 points per chance in those instances.

So don’t expect much of either in Game 7. The only time that Adebayo has played more minutes than he did on Saturday? Game 7 of the 2022 conference finals, when he played 46:10.

No Love or Zeller would leave the Heat with seven players and Adebayo as their only big. The Celtics have more lineup balance in their top seven, even if Malcolm Brogdon misses a second straight game with a forearm strain. Sam Hauser played a little less than two minutes in Game 6, but his team couldn’t get him a shot in that time. The Celtics have also dabbled with Al Horford and Robert Williams III on the floor together over the last two games.

3. The zone has worked

Duncan Robinson is another target of Tatum pick and rolls, but the Heat will often protect him in their zone defense. And overall, their zone defense has been much more successful than their man-to-man defense in this series.

It’s not a huge sample size, but according to Synergy tracking, the Celtics have scored just 66 points on 78 zone possessions, a rate of 0.85 points per possession. They’ve been much more efficient (1.07 ppp) in the halfcourt against man-to-man. The zone has helped the Heat come back from three different double-digit deficits in this series, two in Game 2 and that fourth-quarter hole in Game 6.

We should see it at least once or twice in Game 7, though how long the Heat stick with it will depend on how successful the Celtics are against it. On Saturday, the Celtics tried to attack it by setting an screen inside one of the two top defenders. That draws the other top player over and creates a two-on-one situation on the weak side…

It didn’t work, but certainly can with better and quicker decisions.

4. These matter, too

A few other keys…

• Transition – The Celtics have committed eight more live-ball turnover than the Heat over the six games, but have 26 more fast-break points. They’ve been more consistent in looking for early-clock opportunities, both off turnovers and missed shots.

• Late-clock execution – The Heat, meanwhile, seem OK with living dangerously, having taken 27% of their shots in the last seven seconds of the shot clock. That’s not a good thing, as they have an effective field goal percentage of just 43.8% in the last seven seconds and 59.1% otherwise. Boston does deserve a lot of credit for defending the Heat’s initial actions well, not getting beat on backdoors too often, and forcing those late-clock situations. The Celtics themselves have lived late in the clock more over the last two games (27% of their shots) than they did previously (14%).

• Martin and White – The surprise stars of this series have been Caleb Martin (18.2 points per game on an effective field goal percentage of 70.8%) and Derrick White (13.7 on 74.0%), who have combined to shoot 39-for-77 (51%) from 3-point range. Martin has also had some critical drives in those late-clock situations, while White has held his own defensively against Butler. The stars need to shine, but if one of these role players continues to play like a star too, that could be the difference.

5. Cue Yogi Berra (or Lenny Kravitz)

It ain’t over till it’s over.

The Heat have three wins in these playoffs when trailing by double-digits in the fourth quarter, tied for the most for any team in any postseason over the 27 years for which we have play-by-play data. That includes Game 2 of this series, when they trailed by 12 early in the fourth. And in Game 6 on Saturday, Miami again erased a double-digit, fourth-quarter deficit to take the lead with three seconds left.

So don’t count out the Heat if they’re in a big hole. And if Game 7 is close down the stretch, Miami may have the advantage, having played 64 games that were within five points in the last five minutes this season. They’ve won 39 of those (61%), including six of their nine clutch games in the playoffs.

The Celtics had the league’s second-best clutch regular season record (24-13), but, even with their Game 6 win, are 5-6 in clutch games in the playoffs. And even with White’s tip-in at the buzzer, they’ve scored an anemic 12 points on 20 clutch possessions in this series, shooting just 2-for-15 on clutch shots from the field.

Sixty-five of the 147 Game 7s in NBA history (44%) have been decided by six points or less. Another one of those would be fun.

* * * 

John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Twitter.

The views on this page do not necessarily reflect the views of the NBA, its clubs or Warner Bros. Discovery.