Stephen Curry scored 37 points as the Warriors defeated the Nets 117-99 in Brooklyn on Nov. 16.
The NBA on ABC Saturday primetime is back from a four-week hiatus and ready to provide some outstanding matchups every weekend through the end of the regular season. And it begins with the Golden State Warriors hosting the Brooklyn Nets at Chase Center in San Francisco at 8:30 p.m. ET.
Let’s dig into this matchup between the No. 2 team in the West (Golden State at 36-14, winners of four straight games) and the No. 5 team in the East (Brooklyn at 29-19, looking to avoid its fourth straight loss).
1. Which revamped lineup can find the most success?
We have to begin with a closer look at which players are available and not available for this matchup. With this being a road game for Brooklyn, Kyrie Irving is active for the Nets; and since this game is not part of a back-to-back, Klay Thompson should suit up for the Warriors. But each team will be without a key member as Brooklyn’s Kevin Durant (knee) and Golden State’s Draymond Green (back) continue to be sidelined with injuries.
Both teams are in similar situations as they look to reincorporate one star into their rotation while having another star out of the lineup. Thompson made his season debut on Jan. 9 after missing over two years with ACL and Achilles injuries, averaging 14.7 points on 41.2/36.8/100 shooting splits in just 22.6 minutes per game over his first eight games. Irving made his season debut on Jan. 5 and has appeared in seven games (all on the road), dropping 23.4 points, 4.9 rebounds and 5.1 assists in 34.6 minutes per game.
Brooklyn’s most-used lineup with Irving and without Durant has played just 49 minutes together this season over four games. That group of Irving, James Harden, Patty Mills, Kessler Edwards and Day’Ron Sharpe has outscored its opponents by a total of 23 points in those 49 minutes and has posted incredible offensive numbers: posting a 134.0 offensive rating, scoring 2.79 points per minute on 56.4% (53-94) shooting from the field and 60% (21-35) from 3-point range.
In similar fashion to Brooklyn, Golden State’s most-used lineup with Thompson and without Draymond has played just 33 minutes together this season over five games. That five-man group of Thompson, Stephen Curry, Andrew Wiggins, Kevon Looney and Otto Porter Jr. has outscored its opponents by a total of 26 points in those 33 minutes, posting a 128.8 offensive rating, scoring 2.88 points per minute on 55.7% (34-61) shooting from the field, 58.6% (17-29) from 3-point range, with 22 assists on 34 made baskets.
The key difference between these two lineups coming on the defensive end. Brooklyn’s lineup has posted a defensive rating of 111.7 and a net rating of 22.3. Meanwhile, Golden State’s lineup has a 97.1 defensive rating and a net rating of 31.6.
It’s interesting to look at Brooklyn’s numbers without the NBA’s leading scorer. In the six games Durant (29.7 ppg) has missed since Jan. 15, the Nets have posted an offensive rating of 116.0, which ranks fifth in the league during that stretch. Compare that to their first 42 games (in which Durant played 36) when Brooklyn’s offensive rating ranked seventh at 111.5. So taking the league’s best scorer has not yet hurt the Nets ability to put up points.
However, Brooklyn’s defense has been a different story since Durant went down with the knee injury. In the 42 games prior to the injury, the Nets ranked 14th with a defensive efficiency of 108.8. In the six games since Durant was sidelined, the Nets rank 28th with a defensive efficiency of 118.6. The end result is a 2-4 record.
Golden State’s defense dropped off only slightly in the 11 games that Green has missed since he last played on Jan. 5. Their defensive rating went from 102.2 (No. 1 in the league) to 103.8 (No. 2 in the league). The Warriors have seen a drop in their assist percentage with their top playmaker out of the lineup. Golden State led the league at 69.8% through Jan. 5, but rank fourth at 66.1% since Green has been out. The Warriors have gone 7-4 in that time.
Stephen Curry holds an 8-7 lead over Kyrie Irving in regular season meetings.
2. Will Steph or Kyrie win point guard battle?
This game features two of the top point guards not only in the game today, but over the past decade. He already had the reputation, but Curry solidified the title of greatest shooter ever as he surpassed Ray Allen’s all-time 3-point record earlier this year. Meanwhile, Irving has the best handle in the game today – and one of the best of all-time – and is known to have hit some meaningful 3s as well (see Game 7 of the 2016 NBA Finals).
This will be the 29th head-to-head matchup between Curry and Irving as the two have met 15 times in the regular season and 13 times in the NBA Finals. Curry holds an 8-7 lead in the regular season meetings and an 8-5 lead in playoff meetings. Here’s a closer look at the tale of the tape from their previous meetings.
Regular Season (15 games)
- Curry: 23.9 ppg, 6.5 apg, 4.1 rpg, 2.1 spg, 3.8 3pg, 46.3 FG%, 40.4 3P%, 91.4 FT%
- Irving: 22.2 ppg, 5.5 apg, 4.1 rpg, 1.7 spg, 2.4 3pg, 43.8 FG%, 42.4 3P%, 89.2 FT%
Playoffs (13 games)
- Curry: 24.5 ppg, 6.2 apg, 6.0 rpg, 1.5 spg, 4.1 3pg, 42.6 FG%, 39.3 3P%, 91.5 FT%
- Irving: 27.7 ppg, 4.2 apg, 4.2 rpg, 1.8 spg, 2.3 3pg, 46.8 FG%, 39.5 3P%, 92.6 FT%
While Curry and Irving first faced one another back in 2012, we only have defensive matchup data going back to the 2017-18 season. But in six regular season meetings with head-to-head matchup data, there are some interesting numbers to point out.
Irving defended Curry for a total of 15:15 of matchup time over those six games, and held Curry to 19 total points on 6-17 (35.3%) shooting from the field and just 1-7 (14.3%) from 3-point range. He did allow five assists, six free throws and forced two turnovers.
On the flip side, Curry defended Irving for a total of 18:50 of matchup time over those six games, and Irving scored 22 points on 8-15 (53.3%) shooting from the field and 2-5 (40%) from 3-point range. Irving added nine assists and four free throws made, while committing two turnovers.
3. Which team has the clutch advantage?
If this marquee matchup is close down the stretch, which team has the edge?
The Nets are the only team in the league undefeated in games decided by three points or less so far this season — a perfect 6-0. The Warriors aren’t far behind at 5-2 in those games and hold a slight edge over the Nets in all games that feature clutch time – games with the score within five points in the final five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime.
Golden State is 15-8 (0.652) in clutch games, while the Nets are 16-9 (0.640), with both teams outscoring their opponents by a total of 23 points in clutch time. However, the Nets are missing their top clutch player as Durant ranks seventh in the league in total clutch points with 70 so far this season.
Without Durant, the Nets will need to rely on the other two members of the Big Three to deliver with the game on the line. So far this season, Harden has scored 44 points in 76 clutch minutes, but has shot just 33.3% (9-27) from the field and 9.1% (1-11) from 3-point range in those situations. Harden has gotten to the free throw line 32 times and made 25 in the clutch and also has 14 assists to just six turnovers.
In his limited time back, Irving has appeared in four clutch games; he has scored six points in 12 minutes, but shot just 3-10 from the field and missed all three of his 3-point attempts. Also, watch out for Patty Mills, who has scored 29 clutch points on 11-20 (55%) shooting from the field and 6-14 (42.9%) from 3-point range.
For the Warriors, it will be up to the All-Star starting duo of Curry and Wiggins to deliver in the clutch. Curry leads Golden State with 51 points in 70 clutch minutes but has shot the ball well below his normal standards – 29.8% (17-57) from the field and 20% (7-35) from 3-point range. He does have 11 clutch assists, and the Warriors are a plus-20 with Curry on the floor in the clutch. Wiggins has also played 70 clutch minutes and has 23 points on 24 shots — shooting 41.7% from the field and just 1-7 from 3-point range.
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