The Nuggets cruised to victory in Game 1 of the 2023 NBA Finals.

The Denver Nuggets opened their first-ever NBA Finals appearance with a 104-93 win over the Miami Heat, taking a 1-0 series lead. With the first game in the books, the chess match between head coaches Michael Malone and Erik Spoelstra will take center stage in the two days off before Game 2 on Sunday (8:00 ET, ABC).

1. Pick the right poison

The phrase “pick your poison” is often used when describing two-time Kia MVP Nikola Jokic. His all-around game allows him to beat opponents in multiple ways: He can just as easily drop 40 points (20 career games with 40-plus points) as he can dish out 15 assists (14 career games with 15-plus assists).

In Game 1, Jokic did a bit of both. Through the first three quarters, he had just five shot attempts and 12 assists, as he prioritized setting up his teammates. Then in the fourth quarter, he had 12 points but only two assists.

It should be noted that the Heat won the fourth quarter 30-20, the only quarter of the game Denver did not win. The evidence points toward the Nuggets being at their best when Jokic is dishing rather than swishing (shoutout to the legend Clyde Frazier).

In Jokic’s 20 career games with 40-plus points, the Nuggets are 13-7 (.650). In the 14 games when he’s posted 15-plus assists, the Nuggets are 12-2 (.857).

If we just focus on this season, the Nuggets are 20-8 (.714) when Jokic scores 30 or more points, and they are 25-1 (.962) when he dishes 12 or more assists.

Of course, saying the Heat need to make Jokic a scorer rather than a playmaker is a lot easier to do than doing it on the court.

There are obvious concerns of foul trouble for Bam Adebayo – Miami’s best player in Game 1 – if he is tasked with guarding Jokic without help. That could mean more minutes for Cody Zeller, who allowed three points and one assist in 2:20 of defensive matchup time on Jokic in Game 1. And it could mean bringing Kevin Love off the bench after he received a DNP.

Another factor is upping the level of physicality on defense. The Heat have to get the Nuggets out of their comfort zone in the half-court offense. They simply can’t let Jokic survey the floor, read the defense like a quarterback and pick them apart.

Adebayo did a good job mixing up fronting Jokic and trying to keep him from getting post entries, but that same level of denial was not seen on the perimeter. Miami needs to treat Jokic like Steph Curry and shadow him 94 feet and deny him the ball. He is the orchestrator of the Nuggets’ offense. He can’t do that without the ball. At the very least, force him to get the ball further away from the basket and with less time on the shot clock to work with in the half court.

2. Don’t live and die by the 3

The odds of Max Strus (0-10 FG, 0-9 3FG), Caleb Martin (1-7 FG, 1-2 3FG) and Duncan Robinson (1-6 FG, 1-5 3FG) combining to shoot 2-of-23 from the field and 2-of-16 from 3-point range are extremely low. So, logic would suggest that if the Heat generate the same number of open 3s in Game 2, and these three players shoot closer to their playoff averages, then the Heat should be in good shape as they try to even the series.

In their 18 games leading to the Finals, the Heat shot 43.1% on catch-and-shoot 3s and 45.6% on wide-open 3s. And the Heat generated more wide-open looks from three in Game 1 (16) than they averaged through the first three rounds of the playoffs (11.3). No player or team is immune to an off shooting night.

It played out that way within Game 1. Miami got down by 24 points while missing a bunch of open looks as they shot 7-of-27 (25.9%) from 3-point range in the first three quarters. When they rallied in the fourth quarter, the Heat made 6-of-12 shots from 3-point range.

But that variance is dangerous. There has to be a better balance of stretching the floor with 3-point shooting and attacking the basket for layups, dunks or fouls. A big reason Miami only shot two free throws was their lack of drives to the basket.

Miami had 10 fewer drives in Game 1 (35) than they averaged in the playoffs leading up to the Finals (44.8 per game). The Nuggets don’t have a dominant rim protector, so there are points to be had inside the paint.

Teams have had success against Denver in the regular season (52.5 points allowed in the paint) and postseason (48.7 points allowed in the paint entering Game 1) by attacking the basket. The Heat finished Game 1 with just 38 points in the paint – nearly 11 points fewer than the Nuggets allowed in the first three rounds.

Miami’s 39 attempts from deep were tied for their fourth most in the postseason. The Heat are 3-4 in the playoffs when attempting more than 35 treys and 9-3 when they attempt 35 or fewer 3-pointers. There needs to be more force and versatility in Miami’s offense heading into Game 2.

3. Up the pace and seek more scoring opportunities 

This one applies for both teams as Game 1 was the lowest-scoring game of the postseason for Miami and the second lowest for Denver. Both teams finished well below their playoff averages in fast-break points as the Nuggets finished Game 1 with a 9-4 edge in transition. Through the first three rounds of the playoffs, the Nuggets averaged 16.6 fast-break points (second among all playoff teams), while Miami averaged 11.1.

The 93.00 pace of Game 1 marked the third-slowest game of the postseason for Denver and the sixth slowest for Miami. The Heat are 3-6 during the playoffs when the pace is below 95 possessions per 48 minutes; they are 9-1 when the pace is at 95 or higher.

Throughout the postseason, the Heat have thrived on getting deflections (15.8 per game, 2nd in playoffs), recovering loose balls (6.1 per game, 2nd in playoffs) and using their steals (7.7 per game, 4th in playoffs) and opponent turnovers (13.8 per game, 5th in playoffs) to generate scoring opportunities. Miami entered the Finals averaging a playoff-high 19.3 points off turnovers, but finished Game 1 with just nine.

Part of the reason for that number is the fact that Denver does a great job of taking care of the ball and limiting their turnovers – they entered the Finals with a playoff-low 11.4 turnovers per game. In Game 1, the Nuggets committed just 10 turnovers, while the Heat were even better with just eight turnovers.

However, the Nuggets did a much better job of converting those mistakes into points as they finished with 13 points off Miami’s eight turnovers, while Miami scored only nine points on Denver’s 10 turnovers.

By playing with more force and increasing their defensive pressure on the ball – even at the risk of fouling – the Heat can generate more deflections, steals and transition scoring opportunities that can lead to easy baskets at a time when points are at such a premium in the Finals.