With Kevin Durant leading the way, will Phoenix return to the NBA Finals in 2023?
With the AT&T Play-In Tournament complete and all matchups filled, here are 23 things to look for in the ’23 NBA playoffs:
1. Kevin Durant’s chemistry with Phoenix
This is instant chemistry, given Durant only joined the Suns on Feb 9. This strikes some as hollow chemistry, with the opportunistic forward again jumping on board an established contender, a la his Golden State move in 2017. But it’s real, based on Durant’s comments about Phoenix’s appeal and a little awe coming from his new teammates. “I’m watching every step that he makes very closely,” Devin Booker said.
2. Kings’ first playoff action since 2006
The last time Sacramento reached the playoffs, Mike Bibby led the team in scoring (21.1 points per game), Rick Adelman was coach and they played in ARCO Arena. Kids then are grown-ups now, grown-ups are seniors, the faces on the floor have changed – but the atmosphere in Golden 1 Center will be as raucous as any gym in the league.
3. Can the Bucks capitalize on home-court advantage?
This is what they all play for, right? Except Milwaukee couldn’t even take care of business at Fiserv Forum in Game 6 against Boston last spring. It’s a variation on the “Seinfeld” rental car scene: It’s one thing to have home-court advantage, it’s quite another to flex it.
4. Grizzlies look to make noise from No. 2 seed
Memphis was 35-6 at FedEx Forum, outscoring opponents by 10.6 points per game (vs. 16-25 on the road, where they got outscored by 2.8). They’ll be leaning heavily on that home cooking against a rejuvenated Lakers squad, while playing with neither center Steven Adams nor super-sub Brandon Clarke.
5. Donovan Mitchell begins 1st playoff run with Cleveland
The ultra-confident scorer looked custom-tailored for the Cavaliers in the regular season. Now the team and its fans would love to see something akin to Mitchell’s “bubble” playoff form in 2020, when he averaged 36.3 points and 8.3 free throws, while hitting 51% of his threes. Is that too much to ask?
6. The Lakers face long road from No. 7 seed
Anthony Davis and LeBron James face a tough road in the 2023 NBA playoffs.
Those 1995 “Heart of a Champion” Houston Rockets made history when they played all the way up from the No. 6 seed to a title. Now, if LeBron James and pals want a 2023 ring, they’ll need to do Houston one better. The good news for them: In the oh-so-even West, threats on the other side of their bracket will be getting eliminated while they deal with the Grizzlies and either the Warriors or the Kings.
7. Speaking of long roads…meet the Warriors
They were 11-30 outside their palatial arena, got outscored by eight points nightly in those games and, despite all their stars and weaponry, shot an anemic 33% from other teams’ arcs. They won’t have home-court edge against Sacramento to start, yet never have needed it more.
8. When will Paul George return to the Clippers?
Lacking specifics on his sore knee, there really is only one answer that matters: Either in time or not in time. That day-to-day uncertainty had George and the Clippers feeling salty about being in the only series, vs. Phoenix, that crams its first four games into just seven days, with no two-day gaps.
9. The Sixers face pressure to have a long playoff run
Philadelphia hasn’t reached the East finals since 2001, when Allen Iverson was bedeviling foes as The Answer. The current Sixers are bedeviled by The Question: Will they ever reach their potential? Coach Doc Rivers, Joel Embiid, James Harden and exec Daryl Morey should be feeling their seats getting warmer.
10. Will one of these veteran stars – Harden, Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook – finally get a ring?
Will 33-year-old guard James Harden win a title with Philly in 2023?
If you were to go by seeding, the longtime All-Star performer best positioned to snag jewelry this postseason arguably would be Boston’s Blake Griffin. Next in order would be Harden, Paul, Westbrook and Jimmy Butler, who at 33 is getting into the old-head ranks.
11. Can the Knicks win a series for first time since 2013?
Of course they can. They’re not favored and they would have to play Game 7 in Cleveland rather than at Madison Square Garden. But Jalen Brunson and Donovan Mitchell might cancel each other out for volume and clutch scoring, and Julius Randle is a headache if he gets fully healthy. Much depends on whether R.J Barrett justifies his bosses’ faith in re-upping him – and passing up Mitchell – last summer.
12. Will any of the Play-In winners advance past the 1st round?
It hasn’t happened yet in venerable Play-In history, and it seems unlikely for Milwaukee, Boston or Denver to get ousted by winners of the under-tournament this year. That leaves the Lakers, who have won 10 of their last 12, are 18-7 since March 3 and face a diminished Memphis team. Another challenge for LeBron to target.
13. Mikal Bridges gets first shot to shine as Nets’ star
Do we even know this guy anymore? From defensive ace and occasional offensive option with Phoenix to a Durant wannabe after his trade to Brooklyn? No fooling – he averaged 26.1 points compared to KD’s 29.7 for the Nets this season, taking about as many shots and hitting threes at the same rate (37.6%).
14. Can Denver shake its late-season slump and run the West?
The Nuggets haven’t played like a No. 1 seed for a while. They went into All-Star break at 41-18. Since coming out, they are 12-11. They’re scoring less (112.5 vs. 117.1) and shooting worse (48.5% vs. 51.2%). Throttling back to be fresher now? If it doesn’t go that way immediately, Denver’s season will be spoiled.
15. Can De’Aaron Fox continue his clutch season?
De’Aaron Fox’s clutch play in the regular season earned him a Finalist spot for the Kia Clutch Player of the Year award.
Clutch matters in the postseason, of course – the matchups often are pretty even, and a close victory can swing a best-of-seven series. But Fox has been more than just the league’s top clutch player, improving across the board. Facing the Warriors’ stellar backcourt won’t be easy, but those guys coping with Sacramento’s spark plug will be a chore too. Not one of them can keep up with his speed, that’s for sure.
16. How will the new coaches make their playoff impact?
Darvin Ham is along for LeBron’s ride, in relative terms. Jacque Vaughn already has overachieved, helping the Nets avoid the post-trades elevator shaft. The Hawks talk about playing for Quin Snyder as if he’s Phil Jackson, but will that last? Mike Brown has been preparing the Kings all season for the postseason – his goal should be to have them in a good spot when he’s named Coach of the Year. Alas, Joe Mazzulla has done nothing, in terms of matching his predecessor. The Celtics need to return to the Finals or – unfair or not – it could look like his fault.
17. Which young stars should we focus on in their playoff debuts?
Cavs’ 2nd-year center Evan Mobley is in the playoffs for the first time in his NBA career.
We dealt with Fox above. So I’m most intrigued by Cleveland’s Evan Mobley, who did everything right as a rookie only to have the Cavs get Played-Out of a real berth. He needs the sort of national spotlight, night after night, for a lot of fans to grasp his mature two-way goodness.
18. Record-breaking regular-season offense meets playoff intensity
We’ve already seen in the past couple weeks scores stuck in double digits, a result of dialed-up effort in quests for seeding. That’s going to continue. Expect to see explosive spurts in other tense games, rather than wire-to-wire points binges. The lousy defenses have gone fishing, after all.
19. Which playoff version of Trae Young will we see?
Two years ago, the Hawks guard powered his team to the East finals, averaging 28.9 points and 9.5 assists. Last spring, he looked sprung, dropping to 15.4 and 6.0. Faced with Marcus Smart, Derrick White and Malcolm Brogdon among Celtics backcourt defenders, he might get to the line far more often than he gets to his spots.
20. Do the No. 1 seeds suffer for their success?
Here’s the flaw in the Play-in format: Six series are set by the end of Wednesday night. The two teams that are kept waiting to learn and begin prep work their first-round foes are the top seeds, in this case Milwaukee and Denver. Sure, the eventual No. 8 seeds will be a little tuckered, but they also will be on a roll of sorts. It’s been suggested before: Let the No. 1 seeds pick their first-round opponent, either seven or eight.
21. Which Play-in loser should have its players attend Finals games?
Faces in the crowd who should get camera time in the championship round include Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, Jalen Williams and any OKC teammates who care to tag along. The Thunder have the brightest future of the Play-In eliminated, and the value of personally witnessing NBA competition at its ultimate level would be the next-best thing to playing there for the young team.
22. Do the Battlin’ Timberwolves have any fight left?
Minnesota embarrassed itself in its season finale, with Rudy Gobert throwing a punch at lippy Kyle Anderson and defensive ace Jaden McDaniels punching a wall that ended his season. Had they been dispatched into summer with the loss to the Lakers, the offseason would have been miserable. But they set themselves up for another game, throttling OKC at home Friday, to earn four to seven more. Time enough to convince us the kumbaya cocktail has kicked in?
23. Which Finals rematch is more likely: PHX-MIL or BOS-GSW?
Will Boston and Golden State return to the NBA Finals in 2023?
The team with the best record (Bucks) vs. the team with the hot hand (Suns) is the pick here. Golden State is happy to be riding buses in the first round but its road issues go deeper than that. Boston’s likelihood of getting back to the Finals hinges most on defensive anchors Robert Williams III’s and Smart’s health.
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Steve Aschburner has written about the NBA since 1980. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Twitter.
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