The WNBA regular season comes to a conclusion on Thursday September 19, as all 12 teams take to the hardwood to complete the 40th game of their seasons.
The NBA and WNBA has built in a new schedule wrinkle over the last few years, making every team play on the final day with relatively similar start times. The concept was to increase fan experience and interest on that last slate, since playoff births, specific seeds and potentially home court advantages are always on the line.
From a betting perspective, this is also an amazing schedule adjustment because by increasing the amount of high intensity games, we simply have more volume to handicap. If we’re placing +EV bets, then more games is to our benefit.
However, the sad reality of this coming WNBA Thursday is a lot of the matchups don’t matter that much. Of the 12 teams, the 1-7 seeds are locked into place with no possible changes, as are the bottom two records for draft positioning.
There are three teams hanging in the balance for the eighth seed; however, their opponents simply won’t care.
For betting purposes, it’s impossible to project how a team like the New York Liberty or Connecticut Sun plan to handle their final game.
Regardless, let’s break it down.
Current WNBA Playoff Picture
- No. 1 Seed: New York Liberty vs No. 8 Seed TBD (Between Atlanta Dream, Washington Mystics, Chicago Sky)
- No. 2 Seed Minnesota Lynx vs. No. 7 Seed Phoenix Mercury
- No. 3 Seed Connecticut Sun vs. No. 6 Seed Indiana Fever
- No. 4 Seed Las Vegas Aces vs. No. 5 Seed Seattle Storm
Playoff Scenarios for Final Day of Regular Season
Dream vs. Liberty — Thursday, Sept. 19 at 7 p.m. ET on NBA TV
This game matters for Dream, not the Liberty (unless they care who they play in the first round of the playoffs over rest, which I doubt).
The Dream can make all their own dreams come true as they control their destiny; it’s win and in for Atlanta.
Fever vs. Mystics — Thursday, Sept. 19 at 7 p.m. ET on Prime Video
This game matters for Mystics, not the Fever.
The Fever are locked into the six seed and will be away at Sun in the first round of the WNBA postseason.
Meanwhile, the Mystics need a win, plus an Atlanta loss to the Liberty, to get into the playoffs.
Sky vs. Sun — Thursday, Sept. 19 at 7 p.m. ET on League Pass
This game matters for Sky, not the Sun.
The Sky are trying to grab the eighth seed, so they need a win and the Mystics and Dream to both lose to clinch.
Final Three Games
- Sparks @ Lynx doesn’t matter.
- Storm @ Mercury doesn’t matter.
- Wings @ Aces doesn’t matter.
First Look at WNBA Playoff Odds
The first WNBA playoff lines to pop up are for Saturday September 22, which will be Game 1 between the Mercury and Lynx.
The Lynx opened at -8 with a total of 160.5. I grabbed -8 and a small unit on the under.
Now with the line at -9, I would recommend the under at 160.5 in Game 1 of Mercury vs. Lynx. This is currently available at DraftKings.
I also think the Fever to win the title +2600 at FanDuel is an interesting late-season future to grab. They lucked out with the bracket, avoiding the No. 1 seed Liberty and two-time defending champion Las Vegas Aces.
The Fever wouldn’t face either opponent until the WNBA Finals, where 26:1 would have so much hedge value.
The Sun in the opening round is a tough matchup, but I do expect sharp action to grab some Fever series pricing.