Wednesday night’s WNBA schedule includes three games as we dive into top picks and predictions for tonight.
Our WNBA picks today feature the Las Vegas Aces vs. Minnesota Lynx matchup between two of the league’s best squads. Plus, we take a side in the Atlanta Dream vs. Washington Mystics showdown.
Let’s now look at some WNBA predictions for Wednesday night’s slate.
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Wednesday’s Best WNBA Picks
Las Vegas Aces (-4.5) at Minnesota Lynx | O/U 169.5 (-110/-110)
The Minnesota Lynx (4-1) host the Las Vegas Aces (3-1) tonight in a matchup of two of the WNBA’s top teams. There should be plenty of scoring in this one with a 169.5 over/under and a pair of high-scoring offenses in action. We’re targeting the spread in this one, though.
Minnesota has a potent offense this season, averaging 88.6 points per game (second in the WNBA). The Lynx lead the league in both effective field goal percentage (54.3%) and true shooting percentage (57.2%). Napheesa Collier, an All-WNBA first-teamer last year, is among the best players in the league again in 2024. She’s averaging 23.0 points, 10.4 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 2.8 steals and 2.2 blocks per game for an all-around impact. Collier also has a balanced supporting cast of Kayla McBride (17.2 PPG), Alanna Smith (16.0 PPG) and Courtney Williams (11.8 PPG) around her.
While the offense has been impressive, Minnesota’s defense is arguably even more of a difference-maker. The Lynx boast the league’s best defensive rating (91.2) while allowing just 78.4 points per game (second-lowest). They lead the WNBA in steals per game (11.8) and are second in blocks per game (6.8). Furthermore, Minnesota is holding opponents to a league-low 26.4% three-point shooting percentage this year.
The Aces present a tough test for Minnesota as the two-time defending champs have a dangerous offense themselves. Las Vegas is averaging a league-high 91.3 points per game and is coming off a 19-point win over Indiana last time out. The offense has three stars in A’ja Wilson (25.5 PPG), Jackie Young (22.5 PPG) and Kelsey Plum (20.8 PPG). There’s no denying the Aces’ top-end talent.
However, there are some cracks in the armor for Las Vegas right now. First off, the supporting cast outside of the “Big 3” is a bit inconsistent — especially offensively. The Aces are barely getting any scoring from their role players and are having to rely heavily on Wilson, Young and Plum to carry them. That’s not a terrible problem to have, but it is very different from last year when Vegas had Candace Parker and Chelsea Gray to lean on as well.
Parker and Gray’s absences are being felt, both on offense and defense, and it may take more time for Las Vegas to fully adapt. The Aces are allowing 85.0 points per game, the third-most in the WNBA, with opponents shooting a league-high 41.8% from three against them. The subpar defense has allowed teams (besides Indiana) to hang around against Vegas. It’s just 1-3 against the spread (ATS) so far and could be vulnerable against a formidable team like Minnesota. It’s also worth noting this is the Aces’ first road game of the year. Last season, they went just 8-12 ATS on the road.
Meanwhile, Minnesota’s elite-level defense combined with a strong offense has it leading the league in both point differential (+10.2) and net rating (11.6). The Lynx are also being undervalued in the betting markets, going 5-0 ATS thus far. We’ll gladly take them as underdogs on the spread at home, as they could easily win outright. Consider the Minnesota moneyline as well.
WNBA Pick: Minnesota Lynx +4.5 (-110)
Atlanta Dream (-3) @ Washington Mystics | O/U 164.5 (-110/-110)
It’s been a forgettable season for the Washington Mystics as the lone winless team remaining in the WNBA. The Mystics (0-6) are a young, rebuilding team expected to be at or near the bottom of league standings the rest of the way. The Atlanta Dream (2-2) are middle-of-the-pack thus far but boast notable experience, talent and offensive advantages in tonight’s matchup.
Atlanta is led by a rising star in 2022 No. 1 pick Rhyne Howard, who’s averaging 21.0 points per game and is tied for the league lead in steals (2.8 per game). The Dream also have a valuable veteran core with Allisha Gray, Tina Charles and Cheyenne Parker-Tyus all averaging double-digit points. Charles, especially, has been a pleasant surprise as the former MVP is averaging 13.3 points per game and 8.0 rebounds per game in her first season with Atlanta after not playing last year.
The Dream boast the third-best offensive rating in the WNBA this season. With Howard leading the way and an experienced group around her, Atlanta has one of the more trustworthy starting fives in the league. Howard (ninth), Charles (19th), Gray (33rd) and Parker-Tyus (36th) are all in the top 36 of efficiency ratings.
Meanwhile, the Mystics are in a tough spot offensively right now. They’re averaging a league-low 74.8 points per game and are dead last in offensive rating. Washington lacks a true go-to scorer and playmaker, which is amplified even more with point guard Brittney Sykes currently out with an ankle injury. The offensive worries were already evident coming into the season with Elena Delle Donne sitting out and Natasha Cloud leaving in free agency.
While Sykes is sidelined, the Mystics are now without their three top scorers and players from last year. It’s now up to Ariel Atkins (12.3 PPG), Shakira Austin (11.5 PPG), and Karlie Samuelson (11.0 PPG) to provide most of the scoring for Washington. Any would be the third or fourth option on most teams, but they are thrust into larger offensive roles now.
Though the Dream are only 1-3 ATS this season, it’s worth noting they’ve only faced one of the WNBA’s bottom-tier squads so far. That was an 11-point victory on the road against the L.A. Sparks. Defense has been a slight concern for Atlanta, but those issues won’t matter as much against a poor offensive team like Washington. Take the Dream to cover as road favorites tonight.
WNBA Pick: Atlanta Dream -3 (-110)
