The 2024 WNBA is upon us, and I will be here breaking down the top picks on Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays this season. Join me as we build our bankrolls this summer!
If you tailed me last week, you are 3-0 thanks to early season line inflation from The Caitlin Clark Effect as well as finishing the week nailing the Over in the Mercury’s home opener. Let’s go 1-0 today and keep building that bankroll, win by win.
Here is my top WNBA pick for Tuesday, May 21.
Season Record: 3-0
Tuesday’s Best WNBA Picks
Phoenix Mercury (+800) @ Las Vegas Aces (-14.5) | O/U 170 (-110/-110)
I like to look for WNBA lines the night before games to find edges in early season loose handicapping. Case in point: Getting this number at 170.0.
Both of these teams are 1-1 against this number, but both teams are also coming in off hitting this number in their respective last games. The Mercury and Aces have already met this season in Vegas’ home opener, and that game finished at 169, so they fired out of the chute at nearly this number before both hitting in their following game.
Additionally, when you account for the first game jitters and rust combined with the high emotions of the Aces’ pregame ring ceremony, this game has the potential to race over the first meeting’s 169. This number is more likely to rise than fall, so make sure you hop on before it gets bet up to a point too far. I would take the Over up to 172 points, as only two games have gone over this number without OT through the first week of the season, and neither game involved one of these two teams.
Las Vegas is second in the WNBA, averaging 89.0 points per game while Phoenix is 6th at 84.0 ppg. This combines to be 173 so this number falls easily within that range.
Both of these teams are led by two of the top three scorers in the early goings this season. Phoenix’s Kahleah Cooper is second in the WNBA at 28.5 ppg, and Vegas’ A’ja Wilson is third at 26.0. These teams can also drain three-pointers, which favors Overs. This game features three of the top-5 players in terms of per-game averages from deep. The Mercury’s Diana Taurasi leads the league with 4.0 while Cooper and Vegas’ Kelsey Plum chip in 3.0 a night.
Take advantage of this number while it doesn’t have a hook on it to keep the push in play as we are pushing the Over limits a bit, and that “.0” vs. “.5” never hurts peace of mind.
WNBA Pick: Over 170 Total Points (-110)
For more information on how to bet futures, check out our Betting 101 series>>
