The WNBA Commissioner’s Cup rolls on Monday night with a single game on the schedule. The Indiana Fever and the Connecticut Sun do battle at Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Conn. Tip-off is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed or streamed on NBA TV.
Let’s build that bankroll for the WNBA season and the rest of the NBA Finals with our best WNBA picks for Monday, June 10.
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Monday’s Best WNBA Picks
Indiana Fever (+490) @ Connecticut Sun (-750) | O/U 160 (-112/-108)
The Fever (3-9) head into this rematch with the Sun (9-1) in Monday’s standalone game. Connecticut should be awfully angry, too, after suffering their first loss of the season over the weekend against the New York Liberty.
The Fever might not have a ton of victories this season, but Indiana is 2-1 in the Commissioner’s Cup standings, tied with Connecticut in that respect. Indiana has scored a win over the Chicago Sky and the Washington Mystics, while suffering a setback to the Liberty.
Meanwhile, the Sun have picked up victories against the Atlanta Dream and Mystics in the Cup, with the loss to the Liberty. However, the big difference is that New York is still plus-29 in point differential in the Commissioner’s Cup, while Indiana has a minus-33 differential.
Connecticut won 92-71 in the opener May 14 at Mohegan Sun, covering a 6.5-point spread as the Under (166.5) cashed, while the Sun posted an 88-84 win in Indianapolis on May 20, although the Fever cashed as a 5.5-point underdog. The Sun have won 10 consecutive meetings dating back to Indiana’s last win July 3, 2021. The Sun is also 3-1 against the spread (ATS) in the past four meetings and 6-3 ATS in the past nine meetings in the series.
DeWanna Bonner has racked up 21.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG and 1.5 APG in the first two meetings with the Fever, while Brionna Jones is good for 8.0 PPG, 3.5 RPG and 2.5 SPG in those meetings. DiJonai Carrington is good for 15.0 PPG, 5.5 RPG and 1.5 APG in the two battles with Indiana, too.
For Indiana, super rookie Caitlin Clark has averaged 18.5 PPG, 4.0 APG, 1.0 BPG and 1.0 SPG in the first two meetings with the Sun, while hitting 7-of-18 from behind the 3-point line. Kelsey Mitchell struggled in the opener with just eight points, but she was good for 17 points with five assists and a pair of 3-pointers in the rematch at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
In addition, the Under has cashed in three of the past four meetings, while the total has gone low at a 5-3-1 clip in the past nine in the series.
Connecticut has hit the Under in four of the past five games while splitting 1-1 in two previous meetings this season with Indiana. The Sun ranks No. 1 in scoring defense, allowing just 70.6 points per game (PPG), while allowing teams to hit just 28.2% from behind the 3-point line, which ranks No. 2 in the W. On the offensive side, the Sun are averaging 79.7 PPG to rank No. 7 in the league while hitting triples at just a 28.7% clip, second-to-last in the WNBA. The Sun are an awful free-throw shooting team, hitting at just a 73.9% pace, last in the league. Connecticut tends to leave a lot of points on the floor, which Under bettors have grown to love.
On the flip side, Indiana has cashed the Over in five of the past six games while cashing high in three in a row on the road. The Over is also 5-1 in the past six road games. However, on Indiana’s first trip to Connecticut, they lost 92-71 as the Under (166.5) hit, so there’s that. In that game, Caitlin Clark rolled up 20 points, but she was 5-of-15 from the field while turning it over 10 times against the Sun’s stifling defense.
We’ll back the Fever catching a double-digit point total and it’s a good idea to go low on the total. The Sun have been slowing things down lately, scoring 76 or fewer points in each of the past five games, while allowing 59 or fewer points in three of the past five. Indiana will have trouble solving the suffocating defense of Connecticut yet again.
WNBA Picks: Fever +11 (-110) and Under 160 (-108)
