We have a four-game Friday night WNBA slate on tap as we dive into top picks and predictions for tonight. The Commissioner’s Cup matchups continue with some intriguing games tonight. Our WNBA picks feature the Minnesota Lynx and Phoenix Mercury before the Seattle Storm and Las Vegas Aces face off. Let’s now look at top WNBA predictions and picks for Friday night’s slate. Note that all betting lines are accurate as of this writing, but shop around for the best odds.
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Friday’s Best WNBA Bets
Minnesota Lynx (-5.5) @ Phoenix Mercury | 163.5 O/U (-110/-110)
The Minnesota Lynx continue to look like one of the best teams in the WNBA. After beating the Sparks by 24 points on the road earlier this week, the Lynx are now 7-2 straight-up (SU) and 8-1 against the spread (ATS). Six of their seven wins this year have been by 10+ points, including the past three games where they’ve gone 3-0 ATS as favorites. The Lynx will try to keep it going as the road favorites in Phoenix tonight.
Minnesota is elite on both ends of the floor. Offensively, the Lynx lead the league in field goal percentage (46.2%), three-point percentage (38.6%), and assists per game (24.1). They are also first in both effective field goal and true shooting percentages regarding advanced metrics. MVP contender Napheesa Collier leads an offense that’s scoring 86.3 PPG, second in the WNBA. The Lynx boast one of the league’s best starting units, with three other double-digit scorers to complement Collier.
On the defensive side, Minnesota is second in both points allowed per game (75.7) and defensive efficiency rating – trailing only Connecticut and their lockdown defense. The Lynx are holding opponents to a league-low 39.5% from the field with the second-best three-point defense (27.6%). There aren’t many holes on this squad and it’s coming to fruition in the betting market.
Let’s back Minnesota to keep it going with another comfortable win tonight. Phoenix is slumping lately, going 1-5 SU over the past six games and 2-5 ATS over the past seven. The Mercury are allowing 84.3 PPG (third-worst in WNBA) with a below-average offense as well (78.6 PPG).
These teams just played each other a week ago and Minnesota won by 24 points while covering as 6.5-point favorites. Despite being on the road for this rematch, the Lynx can do it again. They’re a perfect 4-0 ATS away from home and playing basketball at a dominant level right now.
WNBA Pick: Minnesota Lynx -5.5 (-110)
Seattle Storm @ Las Vegas Aces (-8.5) | 167.5 O/U (-110/-110)
After playing in a couple of lower-scoring games last week, the Las Vegas Aces got back on track offensively Wednesday with 95 points scored in a double-digit win over Dallas. The Aces are averaging a league-high 87.7 PPG this season and boast the WNBA’s top-scoring offense for the fifth straight season so far.
Las Vegas plays at the fastest pace in the league and is showing no signs of slowing down. The Aces have a legit “Big 3” with MVP favorite A’ja Wilson (27.9 PPG), Jackie Young (20.4 PPG), and Kelsey Plum (18.9 PPG) leading the offense. Wilson is on a roll right now, averaging 30.5 points and 12.8 rebounds per game over the past four contests.
Wilson and Co. return home tonight after a three-game road trip. The Aces’ home games are 3-1 to the Over so far this season, averaging 91.3 PPG in Vegas. Putting up points and outscoring opponents is what this team does. The Seattle Storm, despite having an above-average defense, won’t be able to slow the Aces down enough.
Meanwhile, we should see Seattle put up enough points on their own for this game to hit the over. The Storm are second in pace (barely behind Las Vegas) and are averaging 84.0 PPG. They have two top-end scorers, Jewell Lloyd (19.2 PPG) and Nneka Ogwumike (18.7 PPG), while Skylar Diggins-Smith (14.7 PPG) and Ezi Magbegor (14.4 PPG) give Seattle a balanced, versatile production offensively.
As good as the Aces are offensively, their defense is average in terms of points allowed per game (80.7) and defensive efficiency. Opponents are also shooting a league-high 38.3% from three-point range against Las Vegas. We’ve seen Seattle put up 100+ points in two of its last four games. The Storm can push Vegas to make this one a track meet.
WNBA Pick: Over 167.5 Total Points (-110)
