Welcome back to another night of WNBA picks and predictions. We have two games on tap for Friday night, so let’s dive into the best WNBA bets. The Minnesota Lynx host the Los Angeles Sparks in one matchup, while the Chicago Sky take on the Washington Mystics in the other. Note that all betting lines are accurate as of this writing, but shop around for the best odds.
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Friday’s Best WNBA Picks
Los Angeles Sparks @ Minnesota Lynx (-13) | 160 O/U (-110/-110)
The Minnesota Lynx continue to be very profitable to back in the betting markets as one of the best teams in the WNBA. The Lynx are 10-2 against the spread (ATS) and 9-3 straight-up this season. They lead the league in points per game (86.7), point differential (+10.7) and net rating. Let’s back them again tonight at home against the Los Angeles Sparks.
Minnesota is playing at an elite level on both ends of the floor. Napheesa Collier (20.8 PPG) and Kayla McBride (17.8 PPG) headline an offense that also leads the WNBA in offensive rating, field-goal percentage (46.2%), assists per game (25.0) and three-point shooting (41.8%). This is a potent attack without many holes in it.
The Lynx should have plenty of success offensively against the Sparks’ below-average defense. L.A. is allowing 84.0 points per game, with the league’s second-worst defensive efficiency.
Meanwhile, the Sparks could run into trouble scoring-wise to keep this one close. The Lynx are third in both points allowed per game (76.0) and defensive rating. Minnesota is also holding opponents to a league-low in both field-goal percentage (39.7%) and three-point percentage (28.0%).
The top-tier Lynx defense should hold Los Angeles in check. The Sparks only have one double-digit scorer this year (Dearica Hamby’s 20.0 points per game) and tend to get inconsistent offensive production from the supporting cast. This top-heavy scoring distribution is trouble against Minnesota’s stalwart defense.
The large spread may seem daunting, but some key trends support Minnesota here. The Lynx’s wins this season have come by an average of 16 points, with all but one victory by double-digits. They’re also 4-1 ATS as favorites. On the other hand, the Sparks are 4-7-1 ATS this year, including 2-4 ATS over the past six games. Each of Los Angeles’ last four losses have been by double-digit points. The Lynx beat the Sparks by 24 points in L.A. earlier this month and this rematch in Minnesota could be a similar result.
WNBA Pick: Minnesota Lynx -13 (-112)
Chicago Sky (-2) @ Washington Mystics | 158 O/U (-108/-112)
After starting the season 0-12, the Washington Mystics finally got their first win in upset fashion on Tuesday. Give them props for getting into the win column, but bank on the Chicago Sky having the upper hand tonight.
The Sky are in a slump, losing four of their last five games. However, they beat Washington on the road, 79-71 earlier this month. Chicago can repeat that result in this “get-right” spot against the WNBA’s worst team.
The Mystics’ offense is a major hindrance. They rank dead last in points scored per game (75.4) and offensive rating without a single player averaging more than 14 points per game. In Tuesday’s win, Washington benefited from having its best player, Brittney Sykes, back in the lineup. Well, Sykes is now ruled out again after suffering a foot injury in that game.
Chicago’s defense is slightly above average (allowing 80.0 points per game) and should hold a struggling Washington attack in check. The Sky have an especially strong three-point defense, limiting opponents to 30.2% from deep. That puts a dent in the Mystics’ offensive game plan as they shoot threes at a high rate and are making 34.9% from beyond the arc (second-best in the WNBA).
When these teams faced off a week ago, Mystics rookie Aaliyah Edwards had her best game of the season with 23 points and 14 rebounds. That’s an outlier performance, though, compared to her season-long averages of 8.6 points and 6.2 rebounds. It was still an eight-point win for Chicago despite Edwards stepping up.
For the Sky, rookie Angel Reese is playing at a higher level than she was at the beginning of the season. She’s recorded four straight double-doubles, averaging 15.5 points and 11 rebounds per game over this stretch. She’s emerging as an X-factor in the paint for Chicago with the arrow pointing up.
Chicago is 2-1 straight up and ATS as a favorite this season. The lone loss was a one-point deficit to Indiana, which easily could have gone the other way. The Mystics, meanwhile, could be in for a letdown after finally getting over the hump last time out. Take the Sky on the Moneyline to get the victory.
WNBA Pick: Chicago Sky Moneyline (-140)
