We have a four-game Friday night WNBA slate on tap as we dive into top picks and predictions tonight. Our WNBA picks today feature the Dallas Wings vs Connecticut Sun matchup of two exciting teams. Plus, we take a side in the Washington Mystics vs New York Liberty showdown. Let’s now take a look at dive into WNBA predictions for Friday night’s slate. Note that all betting lines are accurate as of this writing, but shop around for the best odds.
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WNBA Best Bets for Friday, May 31
Dallas Wings @ Connecticut Sun (-7.5) – 164 O/U (-110/-110)
The Connecticut Sun are the WNBA’s lone unbeaten team remaining, winning their first six games. On Friday night, they’re hosting a middle-of-the-pack squad in the Dallas Wings (3-2). Dallas has won back-to-back road games and will try to make it three straight tonight.
There’s no denying how good Connecticut has been this season. The Sun boast the league’s top-ranked defense in both efficiency and points allowed per game (73.8), while being first in point differential and net rating as well. They get balanced offensive production with five double-digit scorers, led by MVP contender Alyssa Thomas.
Yet, we do have a few reasons to fade the Sun in this matchup against Dallas. First off, this could be a letdown spot after blowing out Phoenix by 23 points earlier this week. Despite that result, they squeaked by each of their three previous opponents and easily could have a loss by now. The Sun beat Chicago and Indiana by four points apiece and barely got past Minnesota in overtime. Connecticut also failed to cover as favorites in all three victories and are just 2-4 ATS this season.
Meanwhile, the Wings have been feisty as underdogs. They are 3-0 ATS as dogs so far and 4-1 ATS overall this year. Dallas has a star scorer in Arike Ogunbowale, who’s averaging a league-high 28.8 points per game. She anchors an offense that’s putting up 86.0 PPG, second in the WNBA only behind Las Vegas. The Wings also have three other double-digit scorers in Monique Billings, Teaira McCowan, and Maddy Siegrist – who are all combining to replace the production of the injured Natasha Howard.
The Wings also play at the fastest pace in the league, which is notable for this matchup. Connecticut, on the other hand, are the slowest-paced team. Dallas’ uptempo style could be tough for the Sun to keep up while their shutdown defense fails to control the flow.
It’s obviously scary to fade Connecticut right now with how well it’s playing. Still, the Wings should keep this one close even if the Sun pull out another win. Grab the points with Dallas as a road underdog.
WNBA Pick: Dallas Wings +7.5 (-110)
Washington Mystics @ New York Liberty (-15) – 163 O/U (-110/-110)
The New York Liberty host the Washington Mystics on Friday night in a rematch of both teams’ season opener. The Liberty are 5-2 this season and back among the league’s title contenders after being the runners-up last year. Washington, meanwhile, is the WNBA’s lone remaining winless team at 0-7.
While New York’s record is impressive so far, it’s been an up-and-down season. The Liberty benefited from easy matchups to begin the year against Washington and Indiana twice. They recently lost to both Chicago and Minnesota, though, before squeaking out a 3-point win vs Phoenix. The Liberty’s 1-6 ATS record shows they’ve also underperformed relative to oddsmakers’ expectations.
New York’s offense, in particular, has seemed a bit out-of-sync this season. The Liberty have plenty of top-end talent in Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu, but the supporting cast has been inconsistent offensively. Even Stewart (18.6 PPG) and Ionescu (16.4) are slightly below their scoring averages of last year (23.0 and 17.0, respectively).
The Liberty may have a top-tier offensive rating, but their numbers are propped up a bit right now because they’ve benefited from playing the Fever twice and Mystics once. In their four games since, New York is averaging 75.8 PPG while being held to just 67 points two games ago.
Meanwhile, Washington is struggling offensively right now. The Mystics are averaging a league-worst 73.7 PPG and are last in offensive rating by a decent margin. Their lack of a go-to scorer or playmaker is very evident and should continue with point guard Brittney Sykes out with an ankle injury. Washington’s offensive worries may be were already evident coming into the season with Elena Delle Donne sitting out and Natasha Cloud leaving in free agency.
While Sykes is sidelined, the Mystics are now without their three top scorers and players from last year – Elena Delle Donne is sitting out and Natasha Cloud left in free agency. As a result, it’s been up to Ariel Atkins (13.6 PPG), Shakira Austin (11.6), and Karlie Samuelson (10.4) to provide most of the scoring. The only problem is that each would be the third or fourth options on most teams but are thrust into larger offensive roles now.
Since we have two offenses with some concerns, the under is the play in this one. The Mystics’ defense is a worry, but they should also play the Liberty tougher after having faced them already. On that note, expect a better effort defensively from both teams than when they combined for 165 points in the season opener. Washington is 4-1 to the under in its last five games while New York is 3-1 to the under in its last four.
WNBA Pick: Under 163 (-110)
