A Bucks-Pacers playoffs series would be a fun matchup this spring. It feels like they have already played seven times in the regular season, but it has just been four so far. The Pacers have taken three of the first four meetings, much to the frustration of Giannis Antetokounmpo. Tonight, I’ll be backing Myles Turner as the Pacers look for their fourth win against the Bucks this season.
The Pistons will be looking for their fourth win on the season when they head to Jazz. They are 7.5 point underdogs tonight. However, they may hang around thanks to Jalen Duren on the interior.
Even without Kevin Durant, there will be a ton of star power on the floor when the Suns host the Clippers. However, that also means the Suns will not have an answer for Kawhi Leonard who looked good in his return on Monday night.
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NBA Player Props Tonight
Myles Turner Over 18.5 Points (-105, DraftKings)
7 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
This season, Bucks-Pacers games have averaged 250 points per game. One player who has contributed to those high totals is Myles Turner. In four games against the Bucks this season, Turner has scored 20 points in three of those games. Monday was the lone exception this far and he scored just 13 points.
Turner picked up two early fouls on Monday night and perhaps that took some of his aggressiveness away as he only took five shots in 28 minutes. Turner averaged 16 field goal attempts per game in the first three meetings, so I expect him to bounce back tonight. In doing so, Turner will likely take more 3s as well.
Turner has made at least one 3 in eight of his last 10 games. Additionally, Monday snapped a streak of six games that he had made at least 3s against Milwaukee. That shot is usually available to him against the Bucks as they tend to play in drop coverage with Brook Lopez. Per FantasyPros, the Bucks are allowing the sixth-most threes per game to centers.
With the Pacers taking three of the first meetings, they will get a furious effort from the Bucks tonight. Tyrese Haliburton will need a few teammates to set up to counter and he is always looking to set them up anyway. Given that Turner has hit this line in five of his last seven games against the Bucks, I expect him to be up to the task tonight.
Jalen Duren To Record a Double-Double (-135, ESPN BET)
9 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
The Pistons began a new losing streak with a loss in Houston on Monday night. However, one streak that continued was Jalen Duren’s streak of double-doubles. Duren has battled an ankle injury this season. However, he has recorded a double-double in each of his last six games and nine of his last 10 games. In the miss, he played just 18 minutes.
Overall, Duren has double-doubles in 14-of-18 games this season. That means we are getting -135 for a line he has hit at a 78% clip this season. Part of the reason we are getting this discount here is because he is going against the Jazz who have a lot of size.
Like most centers, Duren gets the majority of his double-doubles through points and rebounds. Utah is allowing the sixth-fewest rebounds per game this season. The biggest impediment to Duren in this game is Walker Kessler. However, lately the Jazz have been bringing him off the bench for about 25-27 minutes a night.
Duren will see Kessler at some point, but I especially like his chances of scoring and rebounding against John Collins in the first quarter. He could have five or six points and rebounds in the first quarter, which would work fine since we only need 10 points and rebounds. However, if Utah changes up its lineup, I still like his chances.
The list of centers that Duren has gotten a double-double against recently includes Myles Turner (twice), Mitchell Robinson, Jarrett Allen, Nicholas Claxton, Jakob Poeltl, and Alperen Sengun. On Monday, Sengun did damage as a scorer, but he only had four rebounds. Keeping Duren off the glass is not an easy task for anyone and he has at least 12 rebounds in eight of his past 10 games.
I also like his chances of scoring in part because Cade Cunningham had 28 points in the first meeting. Cunningham already sees a lot of double teams because of his supporting cast and if Jazz head coach Will Hardy opts for the strategy, it could set up Duren for a few easy buckets off Cunningham assists.
Kawhi Leonard Over 24.5 Points (-122, FanDuel)
9 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
After missing four games with a hip injury, Kawhi Leonard showed little ill effects from the injury on Monday against the Heat. He went 10-for-19 from the field and also was a menace on defense with four steals. Leonard did finish with 24 points, which would have put him just under this number. However, it snapped a streak of seven straight games with at least 25 points. I’m not going to fret about Leonard not getting one more point, especially since he missed a free throw and only attempted three on the night.
Tonight, I love Leonard’s matchup against the Suns, who rank 20th in defensive rating at home this season. It was in Phoenix that the Suns gave up 50 points to Luka Doncic on Christmas night. While not the same player, Doncic and Leonard are about the same size and the Suns do not have a matchup for either. Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero both had 25 or more points against the Suns on Sunday as well.
Leonard has found his own success against the Suns as he has scored 25 points in each of his last three games against them. In two of them, he finished with 38 and 31 points. Leonard has also scored 30 points in five of his past eight games overall. That is despite playing with James Harden, Paul George, and Russell Westbrook. When healthy, Leonard is the No. 1 option and I expect head coach Tyronn Lue to look exploit Leonard’s matchup tonight. I also like Leonard to score 30 points, which you can take at +220 on FanDuel.
Pick: Leonard Over 24.5 Points |
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