Wednesday marks one of the biggest nights of the week in the NBA. Ten games on the slate provide plenty of options for betting player props.
However, that can also make it difficult to narrow down your bets.
My picks for this column have started a bit slow, and there were a few bad beats as well. However, I trusted my process, and my picks have gone 5-1 over my last two columns. Now, I’m back with three more picks tonight.
Let’s keep the momentum going and make Wednesday another profitable night.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Terry Rozier Over 33.5 PRA (-115)
| Detroit Pistons vs. Charlotte Hornets | Hornets -3 |
| Time | TV | 7:10 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
The Charlotte Hornets and Detroit Pistons have the two worst records in the NBA, so you may be wondering why I’m even looking into this game. Well, the total is set at 227, which means it could be a high-scoring game.
The Pistons allow 117 points per game, which ranks 28th in the league. They’re also 28th in field goal percentage defense and free throws allowed per game. Point guards do much of that damage, as the Pistons rank 30th in the league defending point guards, according to props.cash.
That’s good news for Terry Rozier, who comes into this game on a tear.
Rozier has scored at least 22 points in nine of his last 10 games. If you only want to bet Rozier to score, his points line is at 23.5, which he has gone over that line in six of his last 10 games.
However, Rozier is a player who can fill up the stat sheet, especially since the Hornets will be without LaMelo Ball once again.
Rozier is averaging 32.7 points, rebounds and assists this season, but he has recorded 34 PRA in eight of his last 10 games. He also put up 43 PRA against the Sixers on Sunday when he finished with 29 points, eight rebounds and six assists.
The Pistons also rank 24th in rebounds allowed and 20th in assists allowed.
This will be the first meeting between Charlotte and Detroit this season, but Rozier averaged 37 PRA against the Pistons last season. He’ll have another solid opportunity to put up a big performance on Wednesday night.
Damian Lillard Over 35.5 Points + Assists (-120)
| Portland Trail Blazers vs. San Antonio Spurs | Trail Blazers -7 |
| Time | TV | 8:10 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Perhaps Damian Lillard has cooled down since you began reading this article, but I doubt it.
Lillard put on a clinic on Monday night when he finished with 38 points and went 11-for-17 from 3 in just 29 minutes. It was another big scoring night for Lillard, who has been on fire since returning after missing five games with a calf strain.
Lillard returned on Dec. 4 against the Pacers and posted a solid night with 21 points and six assists. Since, Lillard has finished with 40, 36 and 38 points. In doing so, Lillard also went over this points + assists line with just his scoring alone.
While Lillard has feasted on the Timberwolves for the last two games, he gets another excellent matchup when his Blazers visit the San Antonio Spurs tonight.
The Spurs are last in the league in points allowed per game (120.1), field goal percentage defense and 3-point field percentage defense. Lillard, meanwhile, is 23-for-45 from 3 over his last three games.
Lillard had just three assists on Monday, but he still has been an excellent distributor despite his recent scoring binge.
In his previous two games, Lillard had 20 assists combined, and he’s averaging 7.1 assists on the year. The Spurs rank 30th in assists allowed and 29th in defending point guards, according to props.cash.
Lillard is averaging 35.3 points + assists this season. He has recorded 36 in five of his past nine games and finished with 33 in two others while averaging 45.6 in his last three games.
I expect Lillard to surpass 40 once again, but DraftKings is offering a slightly better line. Lillard’s points + assists line has moved to 36.5 on FanDuel.
Luka Doncic Over 9.5 1Q Points (+100)
| Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Dallas Mavericks | Mavs -2 |
| Time | TV | 9:10 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Luka Doncic is the NBA’s leading scorer this season at 33.1 points per game. His line is set at 30.5 tonight, and he has scored at least 31 points in 18-of-25 games this season. With a 72% hit rate this season, this is another excellent prop to bet tonight.
However, I’m going to back Doncic in a different way tonight, so stick with me.
Doncic is playing 36.8 minutes per game and has played 30 minutes in 22-of-25 games this season. Doncic usually plays the entire first quarter with how Jason Kidd staggers his rotation.
Doncic leads the league with 11.6 points per game in the first quarter, according to StatMuse. That means he does 35% of his scoring in the first frame. He averages eight field goal attempts and three 3-point attempts in the opening quarter, shooting 51% and 37.6%, respectively.
Cleveland does present a difficult matchup defensively as the No. 1 scoring defense in the league. However, neither Darius Garland nor Donovan Mitchell are strong defenders.
Doncic is familiar with Mitchell from their battles when Mitchell was a member of the Utah Jazz. Lamar Stevens has started at small forward of late, and Doncic has a size advantage on him as well.
Doncic is averaging nearly 12 first-quarter points per game and needs 10 tonight to go over this line. I will take the plus-money here.