As we hit the home stretch of the NBA season, it’s time to get a little creative with our props plays. The lines are getting shorter, and rotations are getting weird.
That’s why on Wednesday we’re turning to one turnover line and another steals/blocks line, and we’re also taking a gamble on a familiar name producing a triple-double.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out six prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
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NBA Player Props & Picks
Davion Mitchell, Over 2.5 Turnovers (+100)
| Kings vs. Pacers | Pacers -4.5 |
| Time | TV | 7 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass |
| Best Book | BetMGM |
The Kings play the Pacers, and you could say these teams are a bit familiar with each other. If you haven’t been paying attention, you might even think half the players are wearing the wrong jerseys when you tune in. Tyrese Haliburton and Buddy Hield are Pacers now; Domantas Sabonis is a King. It was one of the trade-deadline blockbusters, and it’s still taking a minute to get a handle on.
One of the reasons the Kings traded Haliburton goes all the way back to the night of the draft. That’s when Sacramento used its lottery pick on standout Baylor guard Davion Mitchell, one of the stars on the Bears’ national championship team.
Mitchell is a tenacious defender and high-energy character player who can help any team, but he was always a curious addition to this particular roster since it already had Haliburton and De’Aaron Fox at the time. Turns out that didn’t last.
The Haliburton-Sabonis trade likely paves the way toward a starter spot next for Mitchell in the future, next to Fox. However, it means even more in this game, because Fox and Sabonis are out injured and that means we’re about to get a whole lot of Mitchell out of sheer necessity.
Mitchell started the last two games with Fox sidelined, and he’s played over 81 minutes combined against two of the league’s toughest teams, Boston and Phoenix. And he’s been pretty good. Last time out against the Suns, Mitchell put up 28 points and nine assists, both career highs for the rookie. And now that Sabonis is out as well, Mitchell’s usage and role should only increase.
That means more time on the ball, more shots, more passing and handling… and more turnovers.
Mitchell had one other career high last game, which was his five turnovers. He had four turnovers against the Celtics as well. Those games were two of his four highest turnover nights of his NBA career. And that’s really not even a critique. Rookies turn the ball over, especially when they’re suddenly given the ball and asked to do everything for a fledgling roster.
This line feels way off to me. We only need three turnovers from Mitchell to hit, and even though Indiana doesn’t force as many turnovers as Boston and Phoenix, Mitchell will have the ball all game and he just isn’t a good enough handler or decision maker yet to keep the stat sheet clean.
I only wish we could play an escalator here for an even higher line, but I’ll take the even odds at over 2.5 turnovers and I’ll even play two units on this one while that +100 is out there. Otherwise, I’ll play to -150 if needed.
Rudy Gobert, Over 12.5 Points (-108)
| Jazz vs. Celtics | Celtics -5 |
| Time | TV | 7:30 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
Rudy Gobert is a popular punching bag for critics, but the guy is a multi-time All-Star and remains one of the best defenders, not just in the league but maybe even this century. Don’t believe me? Gobert has a very good chance to win Defensive Player of the Year for the fourth time in five years. Only two other men ever have won DPOY four times: Ben Wallace and Dikembe Mutombo. Pretty esteemed company, if you ask me.
Gobert gets knocked for his lack of versatility and because he doesn’t look or play like a typical NBA superstar, but he’s a consistent producer on both ends. You don’t want Gobert taking many post-ups, but he remains a big vertical threat and is an integral part of the offense with his screens (and screen assists) and rolling ability.
Gobert puts up absurd field goal percentage and true shooting numbers because he scores so efficiently, getting easy looks at the rim. And even as great as Boston’s defense has been lately, he should get more of those looks.
The revamped Boston defense has moved Robert Williams off the opposing center, and Al Horford doesn’t have the size or athleticism to stop Gobert as a vertical threat at the rim. The Celtics tend to give up some easy ones to lob threats at times because even great defenses can’t take away everything. Boston also doesn’t have the personnel to play Gobert off the court like some teams can. He’ll be out there.
Gobert has scored 18, 16 and 18 points in his last three games against the Celtics, well above this line of 12.5 points. He’s played at least 33 minutes in all three of those games as well and that’s important. In games with at least 32 minutes this season, Gobert is averaging 16.4 PPG, and he’s gone over this line in 24 of 33 games, hitting the over 73% of the time.
So, even if you drop that minutes restriction to 28-plus minutes, Gobert still hits the over 73% of the time.
For the season, he’s at 15.4 PPG with a 70% hit rate to this line. Boston’s defense is elite, but this line feels like an over-adjustment, especially since this should be a close game and that could mean even more minutes for Gobert than usual. If you want to get a bit more aggressive, you can play Gobert to score at least 15 points at +165 at Bet365.
That’s two extra buckets since he doesn’t take 3-pointers or get fouled much, but he’s scored at least 15 in 18 of his 33 games (55%) when he hits that 32-plus minute number.
Against a defense this good, it might be a better idea to take the safer play. I’ll trust Gobert to get some points even in a tough matchup. We project him at 15.7 points and rate this prop a 10 out of 10. I’ll play the over to -130 odds.
Russell Westbrook — Record a Triple-Double (+2431)
| 76ers vs. Lakers | 76ers -7.5 |
| Time | TV | 10 p.m. ET | ESPN |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
So, uhhh… I do not wish to alarm you, but Russell Westbrook is doing stuff again.
Last Friday in Toronto, Westbrook recorded a 22-point triple-double. Remarkably, that was Westbrook’s first triple-double in all of 2022, his longest such drought in years. You already know why. Westbrook has played his way out of the Lakers’ rotation at times, even getting benched in key moments.
Westbrook turned the ball over a ton and disappeared as a scorer for stretches. From February 3 through the end of the month, he plummeted all the way down to 4.0 assists per game.
However, Westbrook has quietly worked his way back into Los Angeles’ good graces, at least for now. After that 22-point triple-double in Toronto, Westbrook nearly matched the feat his next game out in Washington, coming two assists short of a second consecutive triple-double. He’s now played at least 35 minutes in five games in a row and is seeing more time on the ball.
Over the last three games, Westbrook is back to leading the Lakers in Potential Assists at 19.0 per game, far above LeBron James at 12.3 points.
When Westbrook plays 35-plus minutes this season, he has a triple-double in nine of 41 games this season. That’s 22% of them, even including the games when he was mostly uninvolved, and there are six more games in there when he was only one or two rebounds and assists away. That would be a 37% hit rate. However, as bad as Westbrook has been, his line has ballooned to +2431 odds, implying under a 4% hit rate. I don’t buy it.
Don’t forget the guy Westbrook will be lining up against: James Harden. You think Russ might savor the chance to drop a big line on his old two-time teammate? I sure do. And we know if Westbrook gets even close a triple-double, he will stat hunt to finish the job.
Our Props Tool likes Westbrook’s rebounding and assists overs at 8.0 rebounds and 7.8 assists. We need 10 of each, but that’s enough to push me to play the long triple-double odds.
If you want, you can play for a 15-point triple-double instead. That one plays at +3150, and all but one of Westbrook’s nine triple-doubles have seen at least 15 points, and he averages 21.2 PPG in those games. You’ll have to cobble the triple-double together yourself at FanDuel with 15-plus points, 10-plus rebounds, and 10-plus assists.
Who knows what we’ll get with Westbrook? Don’t play this if you’re not comfortable taking a giant “L” when he puts up nine points and three assists with six turnovers before getting benched. That’s absolutely in play. However, I think the odds are at least two or three times to low, and I’m always willing to bet on Westbrook stat hunting for a triple-double. Let’s roll.
Bonus NBA Prop Bets
- Jae Crowder — Total Over 2.5 Assists (+130 via PointsBet): Chris Paul is still out at least one more game and Crowder’s assists have been up without him. In 12 such games, he’s averaging 3.0 APG and has cleared this line in nine times, a 75% hit rate. Minnesota plays at the league’s fastest pace and ranks top five in most assists allowed.
- RJ Barrett — Total Under 4.5 Assists (+105 via PointsBet): Julius Randle is doubtful for this one, and that’s why this line has been pushed too high. The absence of Randle leaves plenty of handling and assists to go around, but the Knicks without him have been more egalitarian. Barrett had only seven Potential Assists last game, and he’s had three assists in all three games without Randle. The Hornets play fast and allow a ton of assists, but I like our chances with a plus number.
- Matisse Thybulle — Total Over 2.5 Steals plus Blocks (+145 via BetMGM): You know we love betting on Thybulle’s stocks over, and it’s back to the well against the Lakers, who have the sixth-highest turnover rate and allow the fourth most steals. Thybulle had four steals and a block against Los Angeles last time and has 10 games this season with five stocks and five of them with seven. We only need three, and he’s had at least three stocks in 27 of 43 games (63%) when he plays at least 20 minutes, averaging 3.2 per game.