Editor’s Note: Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Stephen Curry will rest for the Golden State Warriors. For real-time injury updates, check out our FantasyLabs NBA news page.
Warriors vs. Pelicans Odds
| Warriors Odds | +4.5 |
| Pelicans Odds | -4.5 |
| Over/Under | 228.5 |
| Time | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBA TV |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here. | |
The Golden State Warriors did it! After an 0-8 start on the road, they were finally able to get a road win — a comeback effort against the Houston Rockets — on Sunday night. The celebration will be short lived, as the Warriors travel to New Orleans to face the Pelicans on Monday.
Meanwhile, the Pelicans have had two days of rest and will look to repeat their 114-105 victory over the Warriors from Nov. 4. If you recall, the Warriors were in a similar situational spot, on the second night of a back-to-back, and rested all of their starters.
There is uncertainty regarding the Warriors’ lineup for this game and that will need to be monitored. With no meaningful scratches on the first night of the back-to-back, the Warriors are likely to rest at least one of their stars. With that in mind, let’s see if we can still find some betting value.
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Golden State Warriors
The biggest takeaway from Sunday night’s win against the Rockets is that Klay Thompson finally broke out of his slump. He dropped a season-high 41 points on 14-for-23 shooting and knocked down 10 threes. Playing the Rockets’ poor defense helped, and now he’s had consecutive strong games that can give him confidence to return to his normal form.
Simply put, the Warriors are struggling this season. A championship hangover, chemistry issues and poor depth have the Warriors two games below .500 and 6-10 ATS. It’s been a one-man show starring Stephen Curry. Thompson and Jordan Poole are both struggling with their shot and, with the exception of Andrew Wiggins, the Warriors aren’t getting offensive production from their frontcourt.
The defense has taken a huge dip this season. The Warriors are ranked 24th in Defensive Rating, per NBA Advanced Stats, a far cry from the number-two-ranked defense of last season’s championship team. That may spell trouble against the Pelicans, who have one of the league’s most potent offenses and are ranked seventh in Offensive Rating.
To no one’s surprise, the Warriors are one of the best three-point shooting teams in the NBA, ranking third in three-point Rate (47.1% of their total field goal attempts) and seventh in three-Point % (37.56%).
However, the Pelicans defend against the three well, with the fourth-lowest three-point % allowed. With some tired legs from being on the second night of a back-to-back, I can see the Warriors struggling with their perimeter shooting.
New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans have welcomed back explosive big man Zion Williamson, who missed the entire 2021-2022 season. He has been playing well when he’s been on the court, but he has missed the Pelicans past three games. Williamson is expected to play Monday, per the man himself:
Zion says he’s playing Monday.
— Christian Clark (@cclark_13) November 19, 2022
Brandon Ingram and Herbert Jones have each missed four games as well. Fortunately, the Pelicans have developed a deep and well-rounded rotation. Seven of their players average double-digit scoring and their depth gives them an advantage.
The biggest gap I see is rebounding. With guys like Jonas Valanciunas, Larry Nance Jr., Williamson and Jones in the paint, the Warriors big men will be outmatched. The Pelicans are fourth in Rebound Rate (51.9%), while the Warriors are 28th (47.9%), per Team Rankings. I don’t see many second-chance opportunities for the Warriors.
In addition, the Warriors have struggled with turnovers this season. They have the sixth-highest Turnover Rate in the league, per NBA Advanced Stats. The Pelicans should capitalize on this weakness, as they are ranked eighth in Opponent’s Turnover Rate (15.2%). The Pelicans have pesky players in Jose Alvarado and Jones, who will pressure a fatigued Warriors’ backcourt.
Warriors-Pelicans Pick
I am looking to fade the Warriors, who are on the second game of back-to-back and playing their third game in four nights. They are coming off a win against the Rockets, so I expect a let-down component as well. Their road splits cannot be ignored. Golden State is 1-8 SU and against the spread in away games this season.
Meanwhile, the Pelicans are fresh. In addition to the rest advantage, I see an edge in their depth, rebounding and ability to capitalize on the turnover-prone Warriors.
My line and threshold to play will vary depending on the final injury report, but even with the news as-is, my play is on the Pelicans at -4.5. I think there is a good chance the Warriors will rest at least one starter. That likelihood is already factored into the current price, but I think there will be additional upside if and when it is announced.
Pick: Pelicans -4.5 (up to -5.5) |
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