This year’s NBA playoffs have been wildly unpredictable.
Last night, the Celtics dominated the Heat in Miami, winning 127-102 to even their series at 1-1. Despite not being able to warm up in Game 1, Marcus Smart produced an incredible stat line of 24 points, nine rebounds, and 12 assists to lead Boston. Tonight, the Mavericks will try to post a repeat performance against Golden State, after getting destroyed in Game 1, 112-87.
This is familiar territory for the Mavericks, who lost the first two games against Phoenix including Game 2, 129-109. The Mavericks were able to win four of the subsequent five games against the Suns after going down 0-2. Dallas will need to limit the Warriors’ efficiency from inside the arc and shoot better from three-point range. Golden State shot 56.1% from the field, while the Mavericks uncharacteristically struggled from deep at just 22.8% (11 of 48).
The Mavericks would make a statement with a road win tonight, greatly increasing the likelihood of a long series. Can Dallas make the necessary adjustments to shock Golden State in their home arena?
Here are my two picks for today’s Game 2 matchup between the Warriors and Mavericks.
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Warriors vs. Mavericks Betting Odds
| Warriors | Mavericks | |
| Spread | -6 | +6 |
| Moneyline | -255 | +205 |
| Over/Under | 214 |
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Warriors vs Mavericks Friday Night Picks
Mavericks +6 (-110, DraftKings)
Golden State was very impressive in Game 1, but Dallas actually has reasons to be optimistic. The Mavericks held the Warriors to just 34.5 percent (10 of 29) from beyond the arc, despite Golden State entering the game at 37.3 percent in home matchups.
The Mavericks need to shoot better from the field, especially from deep. Their 22.9 percent efficiency in Game 1 was substantially below their 37 percent mark against the Suns. Dallas also struggled with early foul trouble, as Maxi Kleber was limited to just 19 minutes. Kleber is an essential part of the Mavericks small-ball lineup, which can spread the floor and cause matchup problems for the Warriors.
The Mavericks still rank third-best in the NBA in cover rate this season, currently holding a 56-38-2 (59.6%) ATS record this year. Dallas is also 9-5 (64.3%) ATS in the playoffs this year.
Per John Ewing at BetMGM, 60 percent of the tickets at 70 percent of the handle in on Golden State. I will grab the points with a Dallas team that has shown resiliency in these spots throughout the playoffs.
Risk: 1.10 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit. (Bet up to -120)
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Mavericks vs. Warriors Under 214 Points (-110, DraftKings)
Dallas will not win a high-scoring game with Golden State. They do not have the offensive firepower of the Warriors, and need to keep this game at a comfortable pace. The Mavericks ranked first among all NBA teams in slowest pace of play this season.
With Andre Iguodola and Gary Payton II still unavailable due to injury, Dallas has an exploitable advantage agianst the Warriors bench. They also need to do a much better job on the boards, after allowing Stephen Curry to grab 12 rebounds, a game high for either team.
Assuming they can improve on the boards, the Mavericks should make enough adjustments to keep this game close. Dallas hit four unders in a row against Phoenix, and Game 1 of this series also stayed under the total.
I’m projecting a closer game in Game 2, therefore correlating to another under.
Risk: 1.10 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit. (Bet up to -120)
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