PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.
NBA Player Prop & Pick
Klay Thompson, Under 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
| Odds | Thompson u29.5 PRA (-106) |
| Time | 10 p.m. ET |
| Books Available | FanDuel |
After a hard-fought first-round series against the Kings, the Warriors have a quick turnaround for Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals against the Lakers.
The line that sticks out to me the most here is Klay Thompson’s points, rebounds and assists (PRA) total. After averaging 26.6 PRA in the Kings series and staying under 29.5 in five of the seven games, I’m looking to fade the Splash Brother tonight.
The Lakers were excellent in defending secondary action this season, specifically against spot-up shooters. The Purple and Gold allowed the seventh fewest points per game (24.9) to spot-up shooters at the sixth-lowest points per possession (1.01).
Their prowess against shooters extended to the first round, as the Grizzlies netted only 0.76 points per spot-up shot on an effective field goal percentage of 39%.
Of course, Klay is more than just a spot-up shooter, but I love how the Lakers defended him this season. Thompson netted 21, 24 and 30 PRA in his three full games against Los Angeles this season (the last game without Andrew Wiggins). He struggled to get clean looks in those matchups, shooting just 38%.
With Wiggins firmly integrated back into the lineup, the Warriors have a reliable third scoring option behind Thompson and Steph Curry. Coming off his own 50-point game, Curry once again has a favorable matchup against a Lakers defense that struggles against primary ball-handlers.
Overall, Game 1 offers the Warriors a chance to reset their rotations, as the game will undeniably be played with less urgency than the end of the Kings series.
I have Thompson projected at 26 PRA tonight and would play this line down to under 28.5 PRA.
Pick: Klay Thompson Under 29.5 PRA (Play to 28.5) |
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