Our NBA player props today bring us a variety of matchups across the NBA.
First, we have a Heat vs. Bucks rematch of last summer’s playoffs upset, although Miami will be without a couple of key scorers that will create a bigger role for a rookie scorer. Then, we head out west for two picks, starting with Kings vs. Suns in a matchup of potential contenders, before we head to Los Angeles for Pistons vs. Lakers
Let’s get into our NBA player props for tonight’s slate of action.
Jaime Jaquez Jr. Over 13.5 Points (+100, DraftKings)
NBA League Pass | 8 p.m. ET
Jimmy Butler missed Sunday’s game against Boston and will be out for the next two games for personal reasons. Rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr. will be key in helping replace Butler’s production. While he’s not the player that Butler is, the two have a similar offensive skill set. While the star has been out, the rookie has stepped in and stepped up.
In 16 games without Butler this season, Jaquez is averaging 15.8 points per game and has hit the over on this bet 12 times (75%). One of those four instances when he didn’t hit the over was on Sunday against Boston, against which Jaquez played 28 minutes but only took six shots, which were the fewest of Miami’s starters.
Tonight, though, Miami will also be without Terry Rozier and Josh Richardson while Duncan Robinson is questionable. All of this should create more opportunities for Jaquez in the Heat’s offense.
Jaquez has hit this line in one of two meetings this season against the Bucks, with the over coming when he scored 14 points without Butler.
Milwaukee has strung two wins together in a row, including holding the defending champion Nuggets to 95 points last night. However, it was the first leg of a back-to-back, while Miami hasn’t played since Sunday.
Jaquez is shooting 54.6% on 11.7 field goal attempts in his last 10 games without Butler. With that level of efficiency, 14 points tonight are well within his reach.
Domantas Sabonis Over 8.5 Assists (-140, DraftKings)
TNT | 10 p.m. ET
Sabonis is averaging 8.3 assists per game this season, but he has bumped that average to 9.8 over his last 10. In that span, he’s third in the league in assists behind Trae Young and Luka Doncic.
Sabonis has reached double-digit assists in six of those 10 games, including four of his last five. Specifically, he has found success as a playmaker against Phoenix over the past two seasons, during which he has hit this over in four of seven games against the Suns.
Draymond Green is far from the most popular opposing player in Sacramento. However, like Sabonis, he is a big man who facilitates the Warriors’ offense. Green had nine assists against the Suns on Saturday night. Phoenix has also allowed non-guards like Paolo Banchero (seven assists) and Bam Adebayo (five) recently, which was enough to clear their assist totals.
Sabonis has been in a good position to pick up assists against the Suns this season because the Kings have averaged 117 points per game against them in three games. Sabonis has contributed to that himself, averaging 21.3 points per game against the Suns. More noteworthy for this bet, he had 12 and 11 assists in two games against the Suns this season.
Per NBA Stats, Sabonis is averaging 13.3 potential assists per game this season and 14.7 over his last 10 games. If that continues, he’ll be in line for nine or 10 assists again tonight. He’ll likely grab at least 10 rebounds again (he averages 13.2), so his +155 number for a triple-double at FanDuel is also worth a look.
Jaden Ivey Over 20.5 Points (-125, FanDuel)
NBA League Pass | 10:30 p.m. ET
Jaden Ivey’s second season did not start according to plan for either him or his team. The Pistons went on a historic losing streak and he had to fight for minutes while his head coach inexplicably played Killan Hayes over him. Ivey moved back into the starting lineup on Dec. 18, and he has shown why he was a top-five pick in the 2022 draft since then.
Over his past 26 games, Ivey is averaging 19 points, 4.8 rebounds and 4.6 assists. In that span, he’s shooting 46.8% from the field on 14.4 attempts and 41.9% from 3-point range on 5.2 attempts per game. He has scored 22 points in four of his past five games, including twice (28 and 23) against the Clippers. He also scored 37 against the Kings last Wednesday.
Tonight, Ivey faces a Lakers team that’s allowing the ninth-most points per game to point guards and the third-most to shooting guards this season. Los Angeles has also been a great team to target for 3-point shooters, ranking 28th in 3-pointers allowed per game. Last week, we backed Brandon Miller, who scored 33 points and made five 3s against the Lakers.
Ivey’s over on 3-pointers is 2.5 at +132 on FanDuel tonight. He has gone over in three of his past five games, including hitting five against the Kings and seven against Portland. However, I don’t expect him to rely solely on his jumper tonight. He should be able to blow by D’Angelo Russell and/or Austin Reaves with ease. Scoring in the paint and at the free-throw line will help Ivey get to 21 points tonight. He’s also +180 for 25 points and +550 for 30 points on FanDuel tonight.