The Celtics and Pacers delivered with an insane Game 1 in the Eastern Conference Finals. Let’s see if the Western Conference Finals will do the same.
The Dallas Mavericks will play the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 1 of the WCF at 8:30 p.m. ET on TNT. I’ve added two best bets for tonight’s game below.
Wednesday’s Top NBA Picks
Dallas Mavericks @ Minnesota Timberwolves (Spread)
In back-to-back elimination games, the Minnesota Timberwolves added two extraordinary defensive efforts. The Timberwolves held the Nuggets to no more than 103.4 points per 100 possessions in either game and limited Denver to no higher than a 46.3% effective field goal percentage.
It’s unclear just how consistent the Timberwolves will be in this series. After all, before the two wins against the Nuggets, Minnesota allowed an effective field goal percentage of at least 60.6% in back-to-back-to-back games from Game 3 to Game 5.
On the other hand, the Dallas Mavericks closed out their final two games against the Oklahoma City Thunder with dominant offense, shooting an effective field goal percentage of at least 61%. However, Dallas also turned the ball over more than 16% of the time in both games.
The Timberwolves will likely win the turnover battle by a large margin and have been one of the best defensive-rebounding teams in the NBA. Minnesota has a higher free throw rate throughout the year while scoring more points per 100 possessions. At home, I like Minnesota to escape with a win and cover the 4.5-point spread.
NBA Pick: Timberwolves -4.5 (-108)
Dallas Mavericks @ Minnesota Timberwolves (Total)
Realistically, there are no weaknesses on defense for either team. The Mavericks have held opponents to 110.6 points per 100 possessions this season. That’s sixth-best in the NBA. In addition, they’ve also limited teams to a 50.8% effective field goal percentage and have added 12.8% of turnovers.
Beyond that, the Mavericks have also allowed just 28.3% of offensive rebounds and have given up a 19.2 free throw rate. Both are slightly above-average numbers defensively.
On the other hand, the Timberwolves have allowed 109.9 points per 100 possessions and have added 14.4% of turnovers. That turnover rate is fourth-best in the NBA. In addition, Minnesota has held teams to just 21.9% of offensive rebounds. That’s third in the NBA.
Dallas didn’t see the foul line much against the Thunder and also turned the ball over at a high rate. However, the Mavericks added plenty of offensive rebounds, but that likely won’t be a consistent stat for the Mavericks against the Timberwolves in this series.
Plus, Dallas held the Thunder to no more than 107 points per 100 possessions in three of the final four games of that series.
Minnesota was way more inconsistent in terms of defensive effective field goal percentage. But over the last five games, the Timberwolves have allowed no more than 25% of offensive rebounds. Even when the defense didn’t play as well, the rebounding was still solid.
So, while both teams have very reliable offenses, the defenses should be able to get enough stops to keep the Under intact.
NBA Pick: Under 208 (-110)
