The Boston Celtics earned their sweep in the Eastern Conference Finals last night. Now it’s Dallas’ turn to try and earn a sweep in the Western Conference Finals.
The only difference is that Dallas is home, while the Celtics were on the road to close out their series.
With that in mind, can the Mavericks finish the job tonight? Here are my two NBA picks for tonight’s Western Conference Finals Game 4 between the Timberwolves and Mavericks.
Tuesday’s Top NBA Picks
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Dallas Mavericks (Spread)
The Minnesota Timberwolves had their best offensive output of the series in Game 3. Yet, Minnesota lost 116-107 after giving the worst defensive effort of the series.
Minnesota held Dallas to just 21.2% of offensive rebounds and added 15.6% of turnovers. Still, the Timberwolves fouled at a high rate and allowed a 66.2% effective field goal percentage. There weren’t many misses to grab offensive rebounds anyway. Dallas scored a series-best 128.9 points per 100 possessions on their home floor.
On the other hand, the Timberwolves struggled to get to the foul line but did everything else at an above-average level. Minnesota scored 119.1 points per 100 possessions, shot a 55.9% effective field goal percentage, turned the ball over just 11.2% of the time and added 31% of offensive rebounds.
But it still wasn’t enough on the road. That’s concerning.
While all three games have been super close, it’s important for teams to have a closer. For example, the Pacers just blew three leads in four games in the fourth quarter. Ultimately, they didn’t have a player who could close out games.
Dallas has that. They’ve got two. The Mavericks have Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving to close out a game. Both have done it already in the playoffs.
Therefore, I’ll roll with the Mavericks at -1.5 in Game 4.
NBA Pick: Dallas Mavericks -1.5 (-110)
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Dallas Mavericks (Total)
The Timberwolves have had some really good defensive performances in the playoffs. Look back at Games 6 and 7 against the Nuggets, for example. Minnesota held Denver to no better than a 46.3% effective field goal percentage and held the Nuggets to 25% of offensive rebounds or less in those two games.
But in all three games against Dallas, the Mavericks have been below-average defensively, allowing at least a 52.9% effective field goal percentage and at least 114.9 points per 100 possessions.
Minnesota doesn’t typically send teams to the line at a high rate, but they did in Game 3, which hurt their chances of adding a win. Dallas hit 26-for-31 from the foul line.
The Mavericks won’t have Dereck Lively II due to a neck injury, and Maxi Kleber is listed as questionable as well. Therefore, you’d like to figure Minnesota’s offense will be just as good as Game 3. However, even without Lively II and Kleber, the Dallas offense, at home, should be just as good, too.
We’ll back the Over in Game 4.
NBA Pick: Over 210.5 (-110)
