Two very pivotal Game 5’s as each series has become a best of three. For both, It’s been the home team that got the win in each game, and you have to wonder if that trend continues, or is the team with the winning momentum going to keep it going? There’s one game where you have to believe the road team is getting the win.
(Odds courtesy DraftKings)
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Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat (-3) O/U 209.5
(Tip-Off 7:30 p.m. ET)
Most people outside of Philadelphia had the 76ers dead in the water after the two blowout losses to start this series and questioned Joel Embiid’s return. The star center came, all masked up, and has helped make this a best out of three.
The Philly defense has been rock solid over the last two games as they’ve held the Heat to 40.8% from the floor and 21.5% from three. To hold the best three-point shooting team at 37.8% during the season to 16% below their average has been a considerable factor.
The one person they haven’t been able to stop is Jimmy Butler. He has 73 total points in these two losses as he’s been volume shooting with 42. Philadelphia will gladly allow Butler to go off as long as they keep his surrounding cast quiet.
The Heat certainly could not get out of Philly any faster, and being home should help their momentum in this game. The X-factor looks to be Embiid, as their defense has been outstanding with him in the frontcourt. Then you add that James Harden finally had a great performance with 31 points, and Philly has all the momentum to steal one on the road.
Leg 1: 76ers +3
Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns (-6) O/U 213
(Tip-Off 10 p.m. ET)
This is another series where the road team has looked awful in each game. The Suns did not have an answer for the Mavs perimeter shooting, especially from deep, as they hit 33 three-pointers during the two games in Dallas. Phoenix is a good three-point defending team, but they have not had an answer, as they’re allowing 15.5 three per game (the regular season avg. was 11.7).
While Phoenix can stop Dallas from shooting, the Mavericks can stop Devin Booker. He’s averaging 26.5 points in this series and 52% from three to be the driving force of this offense. Booker needs to continue to play the way he is and push the ball into the paint, where they hold the size advantage with Deandre Ayton.
This game series has been mainly about who can out-shoot each other. While you should feel good about the Suns pulling this game off, the over is the best bet in this game.
Leg 2: Over 213
Total parlay odds on DraftKings: +264
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