It’s do-or-die for the Mavericks, and after how Game 3 went, they may not have any more in the tank. The Celtics have done so well on each side of the ball, but I don’t believe Luka Doncic wants to go down in a sweep, so they’ll be ready to at least force this back to Boston. Let’s look at how you should bet this game.
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Boston Celtics @ Dallas Mavericks (-1) | O/U 211.5 (-110/-110)
Dallas started with a lead early in the game but fell apart early in the second half as Boston had built a 21-point lead. That disappeared, and Dallas was only down one in the fourth. At home, the crowd behind them fought to the end, but the Celtics prevailed and are now one game away from winning title Number 18.
Narratives change so quickly in sports. Going into this series, we discussed how the Mavericks’ supporting cast would help them win the title; now, we’re saying Kyrie Irving and Doncic have no help. Jason Kidd tried different lineups throughout; Tim Hardaway Jr. finally had some playing time but recorded zero points in 19 minutes, Josh Green had 22 minutes and Dereck Lively II wasn’t in the starting lineup but played more than Daniel Gafford.
We’ve heard a lot of analysis on Dallas’ defense in the last 48 hours, specifically about Doncic. Metrics show that the Celtics are targeting him as a defender. As a result, the Celtics are blowing by him on 67.7% of instances when he is the primary defender, the worst percentage (minimum 10 instances) since 2014. The logical thing to do is help him on defense. With the Celtics, you can’t pull anyone off their assignment.
That’s because they have done so well at spreading the ball. With the amount of scoring options they have, there’s confidence in almost anyone to score.
Boston passes the ball around so much that it almost looks like a game of hot potato; they led the league in passes per game (266.9), were second in assist-to-pass percentage (9.0) and third in assisted points created (62.2). They make plays to isolate Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Al Horford and Jaylen Brown, and they are all coming through. We finally saw Jayson Tatum have a big scoring game; he had spent most of the series playing off the ball and contributing in other ways, but he grabbed 31 points in the Game 3 win.
There is so much momentum on Boston’s side, and Dallas probably had the best chance to win in Game 3. The Celtics have blown leads throughout the playoffs but have found ways to come through in the last minutes. They’ll close it out tonight.
Pick: Celtics Moneyline (-110)
