Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Game 5: Anthony Edwards Emerges

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Odds

Timberwolves Odds	+320
Nuggets Odds	-405
Over/Under	221
Time	9 p.m. ET
TV	NBA TV
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The Minnesota Timberwolves managed to force a Game 5 by winning on Sunday at home and are consequently rewarded with a trip back to Ball Arena in Denver for a Game 5 against the Nuggets. 

The Wolves are looking to steal a road win and force a Game 6 back in Minnesota, while the Nuggets will be looking for the Gentleman’s Sweep.

This series had BIG Gentleman’s Sweep energy even before it started, but Anthony Edwards has really looked every bit the young megastar he has shown flashes of at times this series, so let’s break down whether the Wolves can keep the series going on Tuesday night.

Even though they have to be happy to have won Game 4, the Wolves did very nearly everything in their power to toss away that home win late. The Nuggets used a 12-0 run in the final three minutes to force overtime, and if it hadn’t been for a late missed free throw from Nikola Jokic, the series may well have ended right there.

The Nuggets are, hands down, the better team right now, but Anthony Edwards has been arguably the best player in the series so far. Ant is averaging 32.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 4.3 steals+blocks per game and doing so on 48/41/86 shooting. He has shown absolutely no fear, bumping his minutes per game up, as well as his shot attempts from the field. This probably shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise given his pedigree and the flashes he has shown, but it’s very cool to see this truly becoming his team.

On the flip side of the coin, Karl-Anthony Towns has also been unsurprising… just not in a good way. His points per game are down from 20.8 in the regular season to 16.3 in this series.

With yet another win-or-go-home game on Tuesday, I’m going to let both players keep telling me who they are in these moments. I’ll be looking at Ant overs and KAT unders.

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For the Nuggets, Game 5 is far from a must-win, but at the same time, they will have plenty of motivation to wrap things up. Their likely second-round opponent, the Phoenix Suns, will have a chance to secure a second-round spot later Tuesday night, and of course a Game-5 loss would mean at least two more trips to and from Minneapolis.

In Game 1, the Nuggets dominated the Wolves, but in fairness to Minnesota, that was one of the tougher schedule losses we’ve seen this postseason. The Wolves were fresh off a pair of Play-In games, while Jokic had been resting down the stretch and was fresh as a daisy. That’s not to hold the result against Denver, that’s the reward they get for the top seed, but it is simply to give context to that blowout. In Game 2, the Wolves actually led in Denver after three quarters, but the Nuggets made a late push to seal the 2-0 series lead.

That pattern has been there throughout this matchup, with the Wolves, who were one of the better first-quarter and first-half teams this season, sort of stumbling down the stretch. The Nuggets have won the fourth quarter in Games 2-4 while tying in Game 1. Given that this game will come at home with the chance to avoid another couple road trips, I see that pattern continuing.

Timberwolves-Nuggets Pick

All included, I am looking at player props for two players on Minnesota and one Denver quarter spread.

I like Anthony Edwards a few different ways. I like his points prop over 28.5; I like his threes made Over 3.5 (+185 FanDuel); and I like his steals and blocks over 2.5 (-148 Caesars). For his teammate, Karl-Anthony Towns, I am going under 22.5 points + assists (-110 BetMGM), with just a half unit on Towns.

Finally, I am going with Denver -1.5 at FanDuel for the fourth quarter spread.

Pick: Anthony Edwards Over 3.5 Made 3s | Edwards Over 2.5 Steals + Blocks

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