We’re back with a couple of WNBA player props today that’ll hopefully add to a profitable week for bettors. Of the loaded slate, our two picks emanate from a pair of late matchups — Las Vegas Aces vs. Seattle Storm (10 p.m. ET) and Chicago Sky vs. Phoenix Mercury (10 p.m. ET) — where we’ll be betting on some generally reliable trends to get us over the hump on a packed Thursday evening.
As always, enjoy the games and don’t go broke, which is my unbuttoned way of encouraging you, gracious reader, to bet responsibly.
To the hardwood, we go!
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WNBA Player Props Today, July 20
Sky vs.
Mercury
Kahleah Copper, Over 16.5 points (-120)
| Spread | Sky -1.5 |
| Time | TV | 10 p.m. ET | NBA TV |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Copper’s two-game tear has seen her net 50 points in her last couple of contests, recording 22 and 28, respectively, ahead of tonight’s showing against the Mercury. We’re going to ride the hot hand for a third straight effort at a decent number here.
The three-time All-Star has hit over 16.5 points in two straight, three of her last five, four of her last seven, and in nine of her 19 appearances this season. And the 6-foot-1 wing has gotten this over in three straight in one instance this season during the first week of June, which included back-to-back games against the contending New York Liberty.
This is about as dead-on of a 50-50 prop as you could get. Copper’s on-ball creativity and volume should at least get her in the 16.5-point neighborhood, that’s before you get to the fact that she’s shooting 52.3% from the field on over 15 attempts per game in her last seven games, whilst hitting 46.7% on over four 3s per game during that same stretch.
Add in that the Mercury have the worst Net Rating in the league (-10.7) and have arguably the league’s worst defense — they allow a league-most 108.9 points per 100 possessions — I like Copper tonight, and probably go up to over 17.5 points.
Pick: Kahleah Copper over 16.5 points |
Aces vs.
Storm
Chelsea Gray, Over 6.5 assists (-120)
| Spread | Aces -16.5 |
| Time | TV | 10 p.m. ET | Amazon Prime Video |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
The Aces are favored by 16.5 points tonight, a spread they’ve covered in 11 of their 21 games this season, including twice against the Storm. In fact, the two biggest blowouts of their campaign so far were both against the Storm, beating them by 41 points on May 20 and 33 points on June 15.
In the Aces’ 11 wins in which they’ve won by 17 or more points, Gray has recorded over 6.5 assists on six occasions. Moreover, all six of those particular seven-plus assist efforts came in their eight wins of 20 or more points.
The point is, we’re expecting Gray to be more of a distributor in what should be another route. Recently, she’s gotten her seven-plus dimes only twice in her last eight games, but both came in her last three contests — 10 and 11 assists, respectively in, wins by 24 and 26 points.
If the Aces are going to cover, expect Gray to find A’ja Wilson and the crew, word to Stephen A. Smith — and duh, Kelsey Plum, Jackie Young and others, as well — en route to a profitable over tonight.
Pick: Chelsea Gray over 6.5 assists |