Suns vs. Warriors Odds
| Suns Odds | +4.5 |
| Warriors Odds | -4.5 |
| Over/Under | 239.5 |
| Time | 10 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here. | |
The NBA playoffs are a month away, but on Monday night, we get a matchup between two top Western Conference contenders: the Phoenix Suns and Golden State Warriors. Aside from the Denver Nuggets, these teams have the shortest odds to win the Western Conference.
The Suns are currently fourth seed. They were expected to be higher, but have had poor injury luck this season. Devin Booker and Chris Paul recently returned to the rotation, but the newly acquired Kevin Durant suffered an ankle injury that will keep him out for three weeks.
The Warriors have also been fighting an uphill battle this season. Stephen Curry has missed 26 games, but is now healthy and looking to finish the season strong.
Here’s a look at the odds, as well as our pick and prediction for Warriors vs. Suns.
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Phoenix Suns
The Suns have returned back to their dominant form with their stars returning to the lineup. Since the All-Star break, the Suns lead the league in Net Rating (+9.9), per NBA Advanced Stats. They are excelling at both ends of the court, ranking fifth in Offensive Rating and seventh in Defensive Rating in that timeframe.
Despite losing multiple key role players, such as Mikal Bridges and Cameron Johnson, in the Durant trade, the Suns have continued to play well. Josh Okogie has thrived in his new starting role and the recently acquired Terrence Ross has given Phoenix a solid source of shooting off the bench.
The Suns have won all three matchups against the Warriors this season and will be looking to complete the sweep, even withstanding a 50-point performance from Curry on Nov. 16.
Phoenix should have a good chance here. The Warriors are coming off an overtime win against the Bucks on Saturday night and may be in for a let-down spot. Meanwhile, the Suns lost outright to the Kings at home and should be looking to bounce back from that performance.
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors rarely lose home games. They are 28-7 straight up and 23-11-1 ATS at the Chase Center.
Similar to seasons past, they get off to slow starts. In fact, the Warriors have the third-worst first quarter ATS record (29-38-1, 14-20-1 at home) in the league. Additionally, they are 1-14 ATS in the first quarter in their previous 15 games with an average margin of -7.9. The only game they covered was Saturday against the Bucks.
On the flip side, the Suns are one of the better first quarter ATS teams in the league. Phoenix is 36-30-1 ATS in the first quarter and 4-0-1 in its previous five games. That overall record would likely be better if Booker and Paul were healthy all season.
Suns-Warriors Pick
I anticipate the Suns will get out to a fast start and make an early statement after their loss against the Kings. The Warriors, who struggle in the first quarter, could experience another slow start after a hard-fought overtime win. However, the Suns struggle with depth and I expect the Warriors to narrow the gap as the game progresses.
Even though I think there is value on the Suns as 4.5-point underdogs, I am unwilling to fade the Warriors at home. Instead, the angle here is to back the Suns in the first quarter, where we are able to get plus-money on the moneyline.
Pick: Suns 1st Quarter Moneyline (+126)