The Suns vs. Nuggets series has provided no shortage of offense, as we’ve seen some of the best performances in the entire playoffs in this very series.
Game 3 saw masterclasses from both Devin Booker (36 points, 12 assists, 6 rebounds) and Kevin Durant (36 points, 11 rebounds, 6 assists) on the Suns side, propelling them to a five-point win to even the series. Despite evening the series, the Suns still ceded 53 points and 11 assists to Nikola Jokic, demonstrating just how incredible the offensive showings have been in this series.
With Game 5 heading back to Denver, I expect the trend of illustrious offensive performances to continue, so I’m targeting the point total in the game on Tuesday.
SUNS VS. NUGGETS BETTING ODDS
| Suns | Nuggets | |
| Spread | +6 (-105) | -6 (-115) |
| Moneyline | +210 | -250 |
| Total | 227.5 |
Odds and lines are accurate at the time of publication.
SUNS VS. NUGGETS BEST BETS
Over 227.5 (-110, DraftKings)
So far this series, we’ve seen point totals of 232, 184 (??), 236, and 253 points. The Game 2 outlier of 184 points was a product of neither team shooting above 26% from deep (Denver 25.9%, Phoenix 19.4%) and only the Nuggets shot above 40% from the field overall (47.4%).
The point totals from the other three games are far more in line with what we’ve become accustomed to out of these teams this season and the absence of Chris Paul will only increase these chances with how their offense adapts. In the two games since Paul’s absence, Phoenix saw a significant pace uptick (98.25) after playing at a pace of 95.25 points per 100 possessions in the first two games with Paul active.
Because of how potent these offensive units are, both teams have also struggled defensively. The Suns have posted a defensive rating of 118.6 in the series with the Nuggets not too far ahead of them at 115.0. Of all the remaining teams in the playoffs, these are the two worst defensive ratings.
With so much talent on both sides of this game, it’s impossible to not endorse either of these teams on the offensive end, and with an implied total five points lower than we’ve seen in three of the four games this series, I’m all over the o227.5 total points on DraftKings.
Risk: 1.1 unit on DraftKings to win 1 unit.
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