After hitting both player props last night, we look to continue the positive momentum today. With games dispersed throughout the day, this article will feature only the later games, giving you ample time to submit your props.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
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NBA Player Props & Picks
Bam Adebayo, Over 9.5 Rebounds (-115)
| Heat vs. Hawks | Hawks -6 |
| Time | TV | 5 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
This matchup between the Atlanta Hawks and Miami Heat is a little early, but targeting Bam Adebayo’s rebounds is one of the best props on the slate. The Hawks are favored by six points as the Heat are 1-7 on the road this season. Miami will be playing once again without Jimmy Butler due to injury.
Adebayo has been crushing lately with eight double-doubles in his last 10 games and is in for another great rebounding game as the Hawks rank 22nd in Rebounding Percentage this season. Hawks center Clint Capela is also questionable to play, which would give Adebayo another rebounding boost.
Adebayo is coming off of a season-high 38 points as he shot 15 of 22 from the field and grabbed 12 rebounds on Friday. Over his last 10 games, Adebayo is averaging 10.8 rebounds per game. In the two games he did not hit this line, Adebayo only grabbed five and six rebounds, which is very uncharacteristic of his game.
The Hawks also have allowed 52.8 points per game in the paint this season, which ranks 25th in the league as there will be opportunities for put-backs on the offensive glass. In six games without Butler in the lineup this season, Adebayo is averaging 10.7 rebounds per game. I love him on the glass tonight.
Jaylen Brown, Over 28.5 Points (-115)
| Celtics vs. Wizards | Celtics -7.5 |
| Time | TV | 6 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
The Boston Celtics have the best record in the league at 15-4 but will have to navigate their first game without Jayson Tatum all season. Tatum is averaging a career-high 30.5 points per game, so expect most of his usage to shift to Jaylen Brown. The Celtics are still 7.5-point home favorites implied for 116 points.
This season with Tatum off the floor, Brown’s Usage Rate climbs by 6.8%. In five games without Tatum last season, Brown averaged a double-double with 30.4 points and 10 rebounds per game. The Wizards have been better defensively with a healthy Kristaps Porzingis, but Brown’s usage is impossible to ignore.
Through 18 games this season, Brown is averaging a career-high 25.6 points per game while shooting an absurd 50.3% from the field. He also has a career-high 30.6% Usage Rate, and that is while playing alongside Tatum every game. Scoring 29 or more points is quite a bit, but Brown will have plenty of chances.
The Celtics lead the league by scoring 119.8 points per game and have the highest Offensive Rating (119.0) entering Sunday. Brown will have the ball in his hands nearly every possession as this is one of the best props on the board. With no Tatum and Robert Williams III, Brown should flourish tonight.