NBA Player Props Today | Sunday, Jan. 21
After hitting on two of our three NBA player props last night, we look for a sweep on tonight’s five-game slate. In the table below, you’ll find my top two NBA player props for Sunday, January 21 including picks for Tyus Jones and Devin Booker.
Tyus Jones Over 8.5 REB + AST (-110, DraftKings)
6 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
The Washington Wizards suffered another loss last night against the San Antonio Spurs bringing their record to a putrid 7-34. They are 13.5-point home underdogs tonight against the Denver Nuggets, implied for 112.5 points.
Despite the difficult matchup, Wizards’ starting point guard Tyus Jones is having his best season yet. In his first year with the Wizards, Jones is averaging career-highs across the board in points, rebounds, and assists per game. This first player prop targets Jones’ peripherals at over 8.5 rebounds and assists. He has captured nine or more rebounds and assists in five of his last seven games, while averaging 8.0 assists and 2.9 rebounds per game during that time.
The Wizards currently lead the league in pace at 103.46, which provides a ton of opportunity for Jones to get over this prop line. Despite the Nuggets being one of the best teams in the league, they still rank outside the top 10 in defensive rating this season. Even as a heavy underdog, Jones will have opportunity to showcase his skillset tonight.
Our prop model has Jones projected for exactly 10 rebounds and assists in this matchup against the Nuggets. Most of Jones’ production will come from his distributing with him averaging 5.8 assists and 10.4 potential assists per game. Both of which are team-highs by a comfortable margin. Jones’ over 5.5 assists prop is also intriguing, but at -140 on DraftKings, the value isn’t as good. Stick with his over rebounds and assists prop at -110 tonight.
Pick: Tyus Jones Over 8.5 REB +AST (-110)
Devin Booker Under 7.5 Assists (-130, DraftKings)
8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
Winners of four-straight games, the Phoenix Suns are starting to climb in the Western Conference playoff picture. They are 4.5-point home favorites against the Indiana Pacers, with an implied total of 126.5 points. This matchup features the best game environment on the five-game slate with the game total hovering around 250 points.
Devin Booker is coming off a season-high 52 points where he shot 18-for-30 from the field and 6-for-11 from behind the arc. Even though Booker is averaging a career-high 7.7 assists per game, he can still completely take over a game with his elite scoring. That may be the case tonight with Booker scoring over 30 points in three of his last four games. With Booker looking to score, his assists will naturally come down, which is why his under 7.5 assists is a great prop.
Our prop model has Booker projected for only 6.4 assists in this matchup. Booker has failed to capture eight or more assists in four of his last five games. With Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal also demanding the ball, the Suns rank ninth in the league in most isolation possessions at eight per game. There will be a ton of scoring in this game, but getting Booker at under 7.5 assists with the way his game is trending is great value at DraftKings.
The Pacers are allowing 123.3 points per game, which is the second-highest total in the league. However, they are only allowing 25.2 assists per game this season, which is the sixth-lowest in the league. They are elite at defending the 3-point arc, which diminishes assists in general. This Booker assist prop line is a little too high for his projection.