NBA Player Props | Sunday, Feb. 25
In the article below, Tyler Schmidt has provided his top three NBA player props for tonight’s seven-game slate using our prop model. The three plays feature Victor Wembanyama, Chet Holmgren and Draymond Green, who are all graded out well in our model on this Sunday night.
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Chet Holmgren Over 2.5 Blocks (-125, DraftKings)
7 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
It is impossible to open our prop model without seeing how much it loves Chet Holmgren tonight. In his rookie season, Holmgren has looked like a seasoned vet. He is averaging 16.9 points, 7.7 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 2.6 blocks per game as he ranks fourth in the league in blocks per game, which is the prop we are targeting tonight.
With a seven-foot-six-inch wingspan, Holmgren impacts the game tremendously on the defense. Over his last 10 games, he is averaging 3.1 blocks per game and has at least three blocks in six of those 10 contests.
Not only has Holmgren been a shot-blocking machine recently, but this is the perfect matchup for him to accumulate several blocks. The Rockets are allowing opponents to capture 5.9 blocks per game, which is the sixth-highest mark in the league. In his only matchup against them this season, Holmgren recorded six blocks in only 26 minutes.
Projected to play well over 30 minutes tonight, Holmgren will have plenty of opportunities to dominate in the paint. A majority of the Rockets’ field goal attempts come from inside the arc, which bodes well for Holmgren. Expect the Thunder center to have a field day blocking shots.
Pick: Chet Holmgren Over 2.5 Blocks (-125)
Draymond Green Over 6.5 Rebounds (-120, DraftKings)
7 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
The second player prop that our model loves is Draymond Green over 6.5 rebounds. We have him projected to pull down 8.9 rebounds, which is well over his prop line. Finding that type of value is difficult in the player-prop streets.
The Warriors are slowly digging themselves out of their early-season hole. They have won 10 of their last 12 games, and Green’s return from suspension has been a big reason why. The Warriors are 18-13 with Green and only 11-13 without him, and they are one-point home underdogs tonight against the defending champions.
Green has averaged 8.8 rebounds per game over his last 13 contests. He has captured at least seven rebounds in nine of those 13 games, which is good for a 69% hit rate on this prop. Despite playing only 21 minutes in his last two games, Green finished with seven and 13 rebounds. He has been a menace on the glass and has been pushing the pace.
The Nuggets with Nikola Jokic are a fantastic rebounding team, but Green has still found a way to excel in this matchup. In his last eight regular-season meetings with the Nuggets, Green has averaged 7.8 rebounds per game and has seven or more rebounds in six of those eight games. This line is simply too low for Green’s rebounding ability.
Pick: Draymond Green Over 6.5 Rebounds (-120)
Victor Wembanyama Over 3.5 Assists (-150, DraftKings)
8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
Victor Wembanyama is already rewriting the NBA history books in his rookie season. In his last game against LeBron James and the Lakers, he became the youngest player ever to record a five-by-five game with 27 points, 10 rebounds, eight assists, five blocks and five steals. He truly is an alien.
Wembanyama has displayed the ability to score, capture double-digit rebounds and cause a havoc defensively. However, he doesn’t receive enough credit for his playmaking ability. Over his last four games, Wembanyama has averaged 5.5 assists per game. His unselfishness is going to make him one of the best players in the league.
The Spurs are 6.5-point road underdogs against the Jazz tonight. Despite being a sizable road underdog, this game environment will provide a plethora of opportunities for Wembanyama because both teams rank in the top 10 in Pace and the bottom 10 in Defensive Rating.
Our prop model has Wembanyama projected for 5.2 assists tonight. This prop line of 3.5 is simply too low, and even if it jumps to 4.5 assists, I would still feel comfortable taking the over. Wembanyama has captured five or more assists in three of his last four games.
The Jazz are also susceptible to giving up assists as they rank 29th in the league by allowing 29.5 assists per game. Wembanyama can affect the game in a variety of ways, including dropping dimes.