After connecting on both of our player props last night, we look to keep the momentum going as we are targeting two more props tonight. With only five games on the main slate, options are limited, but Jaden Ivey and Mitchell Robinson have great props with plus-money juice available.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
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Jaden Ivey, Over 4.5 Assists (+115)
| Spread | Grizzlies -7 |
| Time | TV | 6 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
The Detroit Pistons are coming off of an overtime victory over the Dallas Mavericks but still have one of the worst records in the league at 6-18 this season. They are seven-point road underdogs, but with Cade Cunningham still out, Jaden Ivey has value on his Over 4.5 Assists prop.
Ivey came off the bench last game in his first game back from injury but still played 35 minutes. He finished with 16 points and six assists as he had a 26.7% Usage Rate. In his rookie season, Ivey has averaged 8.5 potential assists per game, and that has climbed considerably with Cunningham out recently.
Our model has Ivey projected for 5.3 assists in this matchup against the Grizzlies. The Memphis defense has allowed 27 assists per game, which ranks as the third-most in the league. Despite the Pistons shooting just 44.7% from the field this season, Ivey still has upside as the main facilitator tonight.
Ivey has recorded five or more assists in six of his last seven games. While he is projected for nearly one more assist than his prop line, the value we get on DraftKings at +115 for this over is very intriguing. In a great matchup against the Grizzlies, Ivey will have plenty of assist opportunities.
Mitchell Robinson, Under 8.5 Rebounds (+102)
| Spread | Cavaliers -3 |
| Time | TV | 6 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
The New York Knicks have lost six of their last eight games and are three-point home underdogs against one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. Despite Jarrett Allen being out, the Cleveland Cavaliers have a 15-8 record, and this game has the lowest total on the slate tonight by far at only 221.5 points.
Mitchell Robinson’s rebounds line is the prop to target as this number has climbed to 8.5 boards. The Cavaliers rank fourth in Rebounding Percentage this season as they have allowed a league-low 39.3 rebounds per game. They also lead the league by allowing 105.6 points per game as they rank second in Defensive Rating.
This is a brutal matchup for Robinson, who could easily get into foul trouble guarding the versatile Evan Mobley. Robinson has had some huge rebounding performances this season, but our model has him projected for only 7.1 rebounds tonight, which is a full rebound under the prop line. This is another prop that is providing great value at plus-money on FanDuel.
Robinson has gone under this 8.5 rebound prop line in 11 of his 15 games played (73%) this season. With him facing a tough matchup and always struggling with foul trouble, we’ll go under on Robinson’s rebound prop tonight.