The Golden State Warriors took care of business at home as they now change venues going to Dallas, where the Mavericks have been much better. The Mavericks are slight favorites in this pivotal Game 3 tonight. There are a couple props that stand out like great value plays, so let’s check them out!
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
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NBA Player Props & Picks
Klay Thompson, Over 18.5 Points (-120)
| Mavericks vs. Warriors | Mavericks -2.5 |
| Time | TV | 9 p.m. ET | TNT |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
After a convincing Game 1 victory, the Warriors had to come from behind in Game 2, outscoring the Mavericks by 23 points in the second half to claim the 2-0 lead. This is a scary team when they are healthy.
It is impossible to look at our Props Tool without seeing Klay Thompson. His over bets are all over the board, so it is difficult to pick just one. We’ll go with the points, but I’m also very interested in his over 2.5 3-pointers or adding his rebounds to his points prop. There are several ways to go with Thompson in this matchup.
Thompson has been the second-leading scorer for the Warriors, averaging 19.5 points per game during the playoffs. He has shot the ball better, especially in this series, as he is shooting 56.9% from the field. He is playing heavy minutes in competitive games and is not shy to look for his shot.
Our model has Thompson projected for 25.2 points tonight, which is well over this prop line. He has only scored 15 points in back-to-back games in this series, but he may be asked to do more as a road underdog and Andrew Wiggins questionable. Ride the Klay Thompson train tonight.
Luka Doncic, Over 17.5 Rebounds + Assists (+100)
| Mavericks vs. Warriors | Mavericks -2.5 |
| Time | TV | 9 p.m. ET | TNT |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
This is a familiar position for the Mavericks as they trailed 2-0 against the Suns in their last series and finished them off by winning four of the last five games. This team plays incredible at home and has won five of their six games in Dallas, with the only loss coming when Luka Doncic did not play against the Jazz.
Role players usually step up in home games for the Mavericks, but it is difficult to pick one because they have so many. Doncic continues to lead the team in points, rebounds, assists, and steals in the playoffs, just like he did in the regular season. The ball will be in his hands nearly every offensive possession.
Doncic led the league in Usage Rate during the regular season, and he is doing so in the playoffs as well. He also is tied with Ja Morant for most drives per game. Doncic has gone over this 17.5 rebounds and assists prop in every home playoff game this season, so getting this at even money feels like great value.
Our model has Doncic projected for 19 rebounds and assists tonight. He has averaged 19.3 rebounds and assists in his four home games in the playoffs. If you feel more strongly about his assists or his rebounds on their own, you can get both with some juice on DraftKings sportsbook. Don’t fade Doncic tonight.