Welcome to the first weekend of the Association! With a great start to the season thus far, there are three props standing out tonight among the rest. They just so happen to be all under props on various stats for point guards!
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
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NBA Player Props & Picks
Cole Anthony, Under 1.5 Steals and Blocks (+110)
| Magic vs. Celtics | Celtics -8.5 |
| Time | TV | 7 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
After back-to-back road losses, the Orlando Magic have their home opener tonight against the Boston Celtics. A brutal matchup at home for their first game as the Celtics come in 2-0 after wins over the Philadelphia 76ers and Miami Heat. The Magic have an implied total of 104.25 points tonight.
Cole Anthony was out the first game due to a sickness, but played last night and had an outstanding game! Anthony finished with a very impressive 25 points on 8-for-12 from the field and 4-for-5 from behind the arc. This prop bet targets his steals and blocks, where Anthony did finish with one apiece.
With starting point guard Jalen Suggs suffering an ankle sprain last night, Anthony will likely be moved into the starting lineup tonight. Regardless of that potential change, our model has Anthony projected for only 0.7 steals and blocks tonight. He averaged exactly 1.0 steals and blocks the last two seasons.
Last season the Celtics ranked in the middle of the pack in both turnovers and steals allowed. In four career games against the Celtics, Anthony has only one steal and zero blocks. He may get more minutes if Suggs is ruled out, but this is the best line in our model tonight. Take the Anthony under with juice attached.
Caleb Martin, Under 3.5 Assists (-175)
| Heat vs. Raptors | Heat -2.5 |
| Time | TV | 8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
Another Eastern Conference clash features our second prop with Miami Heat guard Caleb Martin. The Heat host the Toronto Raptors in what is projected to be the lowest scoring game on the slate at 215 points. After losing back-to-back home games to start the season, the Heat will hope the third times a charm.
This game will likely be a slow-paced slug fest. Both teams ranked in the bottom five of Pace last season and they are trending that way again this season. The Raptors also ranked in the top 10 of Defensive Rating at 109.9 last season as they continue to be one of the best defensive teams in the league.
It has been a slow start to the season not only for the Heat, but for Martin as well. Through two games, Martin is averaging 5.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 1.5 assists per game while playing 29 minutes. He will likely play a career-high in minutes this season, but this prop line of 3.5 assists tonight seems too high.
Martin is also only averaging three potential assists per game through two games, so even if all of his teammates shots were made, it would still be under this assist line. Throughout his career, Martin has averaged barely one assist per game. It is hard to expect Martin to get this over with a 12.3% Usage Rate.
Ja Morant, Under 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-130)
| Mavericks vs. Grizzlies | Mavericks -5.5 |
| Time | TV | 8:30 p.m. ET | NBA TV |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
What a start to the season for the Memphis Grizzlies and Ja Morant. They are 2-0 with Morant leading the league scoring 41.5 points per game. With no Jaren Jackson Jr. and Dillon Brooks, Morant is the main attraction. Through two games he has a ridiculous 40.4% Usage Rate, which also leads the league.
Despite making four 3-pointers per game thus far, our model has Morant for only 1.6 tonight in a tough road matchup against the Dallas Mavericks. Last season, the Mavericks led the league allowing 10.9 made 3-pointers per game. In their only game this season, they allowed only eight to the Suns.
These perimeter shooting numbers so far are very uncharacteristic. Morant shot a career-high 34.4% from downtown last season making 1.5 per game. In two games against the Mavericks last season, Morant only made 0.5 3-pointers per game while shooting a disastrous 14.3% from behind the arc.
Morant and the Grizzlies’ hot start may come to a screeching halt as they are 5.5-point road underdogs in Dallas tonight. Even if Brooks is out again and Morant has a heavy workload, I’ll take the the historic statistics over a recent stretch of great shooting. Ride all of these under point guard props tonight.