NBA First Basket will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day here, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.
Donovan Mitchell & Jalen Brunson
| Prop | Mitchell (+500) | Brunson (+1100) |
| Matchup | Jazz vs. Mavericks |
| Time | 4:30 p.m. ET |
| Book | FanDuel | PointsBet |
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The Jazz play host to the Mavericks on Saturday afternoon. Rudy Gobert has won 62% of all opening tip-offs this year and is 4-1 versus Dwight Powell on opening tip-offs this year. The Jazz score first 49% of the time while the Mavericks score first 55% of the time.
That number for the Mavericks is misleading as they score first just 41% of the time when Powell has jumped the opening tip this year. This is mainly because he wins just 27% of opening tip-offs.
I’m assuming Utah wins the tip-off. Dallas gives up first baskets to opposing shooting guards, centers and small forwards more frequently than point guards and power forwards.
I like to look at shots per first three possessions of a game when handicapping first baskets. For example, Donovan Mitchell generally takes 1.1 of the first three shots for Utah, and takes the first shot in 37% of games started this year. He ranks in the top 10 for both of those categories this season.
In looking at the seven games in between Utah and Dallas this season, Mitchell has taken 1.6 shots out of the 1st 3 possessions.
I’m adding Jalen Brunson here simply as a value play. He scores the first team FG almost as often as Luka Donic but is double the price.
Plays
- Donovan Mitchell: +500 Risk (0.7 units)
- Jalen Brunson: +1100 Risk (0.3 units)
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