While the Minnesota Lynx jumped out to a 13-point lead after the first quarter and eventually secured a Game 1 win over the Phoenix Mercury, things didn’t quite go according to plan.
Phoenix actually outscored Minnesota over the final three quarters behind a 33-point outing from Natasha Cloud and a vintage 21-point performance from Diana Taurasi.
Can the Mercury avoid a sweep and extend this series to a Game 3? Or will Minnesota advance to the Western Conference Semifinals? To find the answer, let’s get to my Mercury vs. Lynx prediction.
Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury Prediction
My Mercury vs. Lynx best bet is to back the Lynx at home. I’m picking Minnesota to cover the spread.
Mercury vs. Lynx Pick: Lynx -8.5
Mercury vs. Lynx Odds
- Mercury vs. Lynx spread: Mercury +8.5, Lynx -8.5
- Mercury vs. Lynx over/under: 160.5 total points scored
- Mercury vs. Lynx moneylines: Mercury +340, Lynx -440
- Mercury vs. Lynx pick: Minnesota -8.5
Phoenix Mercury: Struggles Likely to Continue
Phoenix had a legitimate chance to steal Game 1.
The Mercury shot a blistering 50% from the field and 51% from 3-point land, but those efforts weren’t enough.
Cloud was sensational, posting 33 points, dishing out 10 assists and pulling down six rebounds. She also shot 61% from the field and 50% from 3.
The problem for Phoenix is simple: It couldn’t have performed better than it did on the offensive end of the floor, but still lost because its defense is incapable of stringing together stops in crucial moments.
The likelihood of Cloud and Taurasi combining for 54 points again is virtually zero.
Further, Brittney Griner struggled with Minnesota’s interior defense, converting just three of her 10 field goal attempts in Game 1.
Minnesota Lynx: Defense Should Improve in Game 2
Offensively, the Lynx were firing on all cylinders from the start. They had a 13-point lead at the end of the first quarter and cruised to a 102-point outing and a Game 1 victory.
What’s most promising about the Lynx entering Game 2 is their ability to get to the free-throw line and knock down open looks from deep.
Further, they played about as poorly on the defensive end of the floor as we’ve seen from them this season, meaning it’s only up from here.
In fact, Minnesota didn’t allow a single team to score 95 or more points in the regular season, so with the chance of advancing to the Western Conference Semifinals on the line, expect the Lynx to ramp up the intensity.
Mercury vs. Lynx Betting Pick & Prediction
The difference between winning and losing Game 1 came down to the free-throw line. Phoenix couldn’t avoid putting Minnesota on the line as it gave the Lynx 25 free-throw attempts, of which they made 24 (96%).
The Mercury’s inability to keep Minnesota’s players in front of them makes me very wary of backing them in Game 2. Phoenix has struggled with its perimeter defense all season, and that reared its ugly head once again in Game 1 as Minnesota converted 42% of its 3-point tries.
Whenever the Lynx weren’t taking shots from deep, they found ways to get their feet in the paint, create for others, or draw fouls, as evidenced by their 30 assists and 25 free-throw attempts.
This one could be a blowout.
Lynx vs. Mercury Pick: Lynx -8.5
How to Watch: Time, Channel, Streaming
| Mercury vs. Lynx | Wednesday, September 25 |
| Start Time: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN / ESPN+, YouTube TV |
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota |
Lynx vs. Mercury is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET live from Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota on Wednesday. Game 2 of the first-round WNBA playoff matchup is airing on TV on ESPN and streaming live on ESPN+ and YouTube TV.