We head into Game 2 of the first-round series between the Nets and the Sixers after complete annihilation at the hands of the Sixers in Game 1, as they walked away with a 121-101 win.
As lopsided as the game ended up being, the Nets have a number of positives on the offensive end working in their favor. They shot more efficiently than the Sixers, hitting 55.7% of their shots and 44.8% from deep. The issue is that they shot 19 fewer times than the Sixers and turned the ball over 20 times, giving up 31 points off of those turnovers.
Will the Nets be able to turn it around on Monday? Even if not, I expect their offense to continue to find a rhythm against the Sixers and with the Sixers scoring at will, I have a strong lean on the total.
NETS VS. SIXERS BETTING ODDS
| Nets | Sixers | |
| Spread | +10 | -10 |
| Moneyline | +400 | -500 |
| Over/Under | 212.5 |
Odds and lines accurate at the time of publication
NETS VS. SIXERS BEST BETS
Over 212.5 (-110, DraftKings)
After a 232-point showing in the last game, the total for Game 2 comes into Tuesday nearly 20 points lower than what it finished at after the last game. Sure, the pace slows down in the playoffs and efficiency on the Nets’ side may dip, but this feels like an irresponsible lack of adjustment on the sportsbook side, especially considering the fact that the Sixers were the seventh-best team against the over this season (45-36-2).
As I mentioned above, it’s also worth noting just how efficient the Nets were offensively, shooting 55.7% from the floor and 44.8% from deep. While we can expect regression in this category, we could also expect an uptick from the 70 total shots that they got off considering we should see a reasonable decrease in their turnovers (20 in Game 1).
On the flip side, the Sixers should continue to have their way with what’s been a disappointing Nets’ defense, especially when they really focus the offense around Joel Embiid in a game where Harden doesn’t fire away 13 times from deep.
While it’s a reasonable expectation for a lower total in this game relative to the last, a 20-point drop feels aggressive, and it’s a line I want to take advantage of.
Risk: 1.1 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit.
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